Extratropical Storm Chantal: last CHC advisory issued

[AnnularCane]

Pull an Epsilon, Chantal! Come on, I don't want to lose you so soon!

You look so pretty this morning. I guess we should enjoy you while we can.

[HURAKAN]

I wonder if the TCR will upgrade her earlier and/or make here a little stronger.

Both are very possible.

Meanwhile,

31/1145 UTC 38.3N 64.9W EXTRATROPICAL 03L -- Atlantic Ocean

I think we need a new Dvorak.

[Chacor]

I wonder if the TCR will upgrade her earlier and/or make here a little stronger.

Both are very possible.

Meanwhile,

31/1145 UTC 38.3N 64.9W EXTRATROPICAL 03L -- Atlantic Ocean

I think we need a new Dvorak.

The SAB/SSD are not the only ones who do Dvorak classifications. TAFB does them too, as does AFWA.

[HURAKAN]

Chantal is seeing!!! Not really. Nonetheless, if Barry was a 60-mph storm, Chantal is there or maybe stronger.

[RL3AO]

Not actually an eye, but interesting. She is stronger than 35kts though.

[Chacor]

Wrapping well, but convection isn't that deep (only about -50 to -60C tops).

[Chacor]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 311432
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032007
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CHANTAL HAS STRENGTHENED THIS
MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE CURVED BANDING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE STORM APPEARS TO BE
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A CLEARLY IDENTIFIABLE MID-LEVEL
CENTER ON SATELLITE. A QUIKSCAT PASS JUST BEFORE 1000 UTC SHOWED
BELIEVABLE WIND VECTORS IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE SET TO 45 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS QUICKLY
MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED. GLOBAL COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT
CHANTAL WILL BECOME THE MAIN PART OF A LARGE POWERFUL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A LITTLE ADDITIONAL BAROCLINIC
STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN A COUPLE DAYS.

THE STORM IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 25 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION...WITH SOME ACCELERATION...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS CHANTAL IS STEERED BY A DEEPENING MIDDLE-LATITUDE
TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 40.2N 62.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 43.0N 59.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 47.0N 52.7W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 02/0000Z 51.2N 44.7W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 02/1200Z 56.0N 36.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/1200Z 60.0N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 04/1200Z 62.0N 20.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 05/1200Z 64.5N 12.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

000
WTNT33 KNHC 311431
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032007
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

...CHANTAL STRENGTHENS...BUT HEADED FOR COOLER WATERS...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST OR ABOUT 305
MILES...495 KM...SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA AND ABOUT 660 MILES...
1060 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

CHANTAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CHANTAL COULD LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...40.2 N...62.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[AnnularCane]

Hey there, princess.

She does seem to be making the most of what little time she has, doesn't she? I kind of wish I could pull her south a little, maybe buy her a little more time.

[Weatherfreak14]

Oh yes 50mph storm for where she is at. shes doing pretty good. Lets see what she can do next.

[JTD]

Question for everybody:

What kind of impact will this have on Nova Scotia?

Nice to have a real storm to track.

[HURAKAN]

Question for everybody:

What kind of impact will this have on Nova Scotia?

Nice to have a real storm to track.

Warnings
Avalon Peninsula North
10:48 AM NDT Tuesday 31 July 2007
Rainfall warning for
Avalon Peninsula North issued

Rainfall amounts of 50 millimetres...With amounts near 70 millimetres over the western Avalon...Are forecast for the next 24 hours. Please monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

Tropical storm Chantal is roughly 500 kilometres south of Nova Scotia and is moving in a northeasterly direction. It is forecast to approach southeastern Newfoundland tonight then move northeast of the Avalon Peninsula by Wednesday afternoon.

Rain is currently falling over the Burin Peninsula and it is expected to continue until the storm passes by on Wednesday morning. 50 millimetres of rain...Heavy at times...Is forecast.

There is a chance of showers for the Avalon Peninsula today however as the storm approaches tonight heavy rain is expect to spread over the area before ending Wednesday morning. 50 millimetres of rain...With 70 millimetres possible over the western Avalon...Is expected to fall in a short period of time. Driving will be treacherous at times in heavy rain.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings ... .html?nf28

[chadtm80]

advisory #3 - http://www.storm2k.or/wx

[RL3AO]

[CrazyC83]

I'd say Chantal is 50-55 knots right now. There is a chance she could become a hurricane before becoming extratropical...

[RL3AO]

I don't think so Crazy.

[CrazyC83]

I don't think so Crazy.

Storms can do strange things in a baroclinic environment - Michael in 2000 rapidly intensified over 16C waters, and that also kept Juan from losing any significant strength as it approached Nova Scotia...

[Brent]

I'd say Chantal is 50-55 knots right now. There is a chance she could become a hurricane before becoming extratropical...

I doubt that(though I won't rule anything out)... but she does look impressive.

I'm glad she got a name, defintely deserved it.

[CrazyC83]

They won't send recon into a high-latutude storm?

[Chacor]

There is no need to, since no US interests are threatened. They're sending flights into 99L though...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 311530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT TUE 31 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-069

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 01/1800Z A. 02/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 01/1530Z C. 02/1000Z
D. 13.0N 57.0W D. 13.5N 61.5W
E. 01/1700Z TO 01/2200Z E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[RL3AO]

Maybe if it was a threat to Canada (if might knick Newfoundland) but otherwise the hunters don't feel like flying into it I guess.