Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

[NcentralFlaguy]

should something come to fruition I am wondering where it may go, I dont think it would be the cut and dry race to the NE system, maybe more of a northerly drift ... lots of ifs though..and Im also talking about a system which isnt even here attm.

[drezee]

CMC develops a Low in this area sort of like beryl from 1995...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation




radar show maybe a MLC forming

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[HURAKAN]

Steve Lyons said that this area should be watched for possible development because there was a cold front dropping into the Gulf of Mexico and behind it the winds were going to be favorable for a system to develop.

Dean has a few areas to select for his formation!!!

[dizzyfish]

That blob can just march right over here to my house!

I haven't had anything but drizzle drops the last few days.

[tailgater]

Yall can have it I'm sick of the rain here in south La., over 3 inches in the last 36hrs.

[tailgater]

check out this forecast from TPC.
24hrs.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
48hrs.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
and 72hrs.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[Stormcenter]

check out this forecast from TPC.
24hrs.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
48hrs.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
and 72hrs.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

That looks about right.

[ronjon]

should something come to fruition I am wondering where it may go, I dont think it would be the cut and dry race to the NE system, maybe more of a northerly drift ... lots of ifs though..and Im also talking about a system which isnt even here attm.

CMC, which has the formation of low pressure just south of Mobile (close to this blob) by 8 am tomorrow, very slowly moves it east as a tropical storm to about Panama City to Appalachcola area for land fall by Thursday night and then into south-central Georgia by Friday night. Other models develop it further east in the GOM and slowly push it north or northwest as the subtropical ridge builds in Thursday or Friday.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007073100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[ronjon]

Latest 12Z NAM develops the low further south in the eastern GOM and slowly moves it N-NW to off pensicola in 72 hrs.

[Stormcenter]

This in my opinion is the "next" area to watch for possible development.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html


Anyway If 99L ever goes get around to developing it is still a week or so away from the U.S.

[Berwick Bay]

Yeah, we don't want to forget about this area in the Northern Gulf. Wouldn't be surprised if this area is the one of most concern when local mets come on tv this evening. You would think that at most, it would just be a rainmaker or minimal tropical storm. But you know how that goes. Lots of talk about Alicia this year, you just never really know.

[Cyclone1]

This looks like Charley in 1986. Forming in the north Gulf, making landfall, crossing over the southeast, and becoming a strong TS/Hurricane in the Atlantic. Wouldn't surprise me, every storm this year has been pretty weird so far.

[Brent]

We need the rain BADLY up here, so I'd welcome a weak rainmaker. I doubt it'll happen though... probably go somewhere else as usual.

[ronjon]

We need the rain BADLY up here, so I'd welcome a weak rainmaker. I doubt it'll happen though... probably go somewhere else as usual.

Brent, you may get your wish. Latest GFS, CMC, and NAM models place low pressure somewhere off Mobile or the western FL panhandle in 48-72 hrs.

[rockyman]

Watching area south of Fort Walton Beach (between P'cola and PCB)...some slight vorticity noted on radar and visible...TWC Tropical Update just mentioned that this area "could become something" as it interacts with "weak upper level winds"

[ronjon]

Watching area south of Fort Walton Beach (between P'cola and PCB)...some slight vorticity noted on radar and visible...TWC Tropical Update just mentioned that this area "could become something" as it interacts with "weak upper level winds"

Yeah rockyman, I noticed some spinning in the radar south of FWB. It's a little vortex embedded in the Thunderstorm complex. I'm thinking a broad low pressure will develop and gradually tighten up through time - depends on how far off shore something develops and the time it has over water. I will be watching this area for pressure falls over the next 24-48 hrs. Lots of convection and energy from the weakening front.

[rockyman]

TWC is showing a fully closed (isobar line) low right on the coast near Panama City on a trough extending along the Gulf Coast and connecting to another low off the Carolina coast.

[Stormcenter]

Here is good visible loop of the area.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[ronjon]

From NWS Tallahassee AFD:

DIFFICULT FORECAST ONCE AGAIN AS I`M PRESENTED WITH AN ATYPICAL LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST SOLUTION FROM THE MODELS. THE GFS FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAS INDICATED THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF...FORMING UP A SURFACE LOW ON THE BOUNDARY AND BRINGING THIS LOW BACK NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. THE 31/12Z NAM IS NOW COMING ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION.

[ronjon]

From NWS Melbourne AFD:

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ORGANIZE THE PROJECTED GULF LOW TO JUST SOUTH OF MOBILE BY 12Z FRI. THE TREND IS BECOMING MORE REASONABLE GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE IN SUCCESSIVE RUNS...