Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

[HURAKAN]

In front of 99L we have another tropical wave. TWD said it was its parent tropical wave. In the image we see convection developing in the Lesser Antilles and more moist between both systems than elsewhere.

Question: Could 99L parent tropical wave clear, or at least, aliviate the dry environment for 99L to develop or further organize?

[gatorcane]

Some south of west motion there... Nicaragua bound?!

No folks look very carefully at the visible motion.....I definitely still think it is about ready to "pop" soon....the overall structure is there. I think it is fooling us be careful...

I believe the "new center" is somewhere around 12N 52W. You can see that it is starting to suck up all that moisture to the south and is trying to wrap it into this "center." It just take a little spark and we are going to see some deep convection around this "center"

A still believe a depression will form here sooner than later.

[skysummit]

what buoy was that? what buoy was or is closest to the system now????????????

It's the closest one right now.... buoy 41040:

[Cyclone1]

^^In front of 99L we have another tropical wave. TWD said it was its parent tropical wave. In the image we see convection developing in the Lesser Antilles and more moist between both systems than elsewhere.

Question: Could 99L parent tropical wave clear, or at least, aliviate the dry environment for 99L to develop or further organize?
---

Looks like that's what it may be doing.

[hurricanefloyd5]

2 things 1 im a cat.4 hurricane now !!!YEAH!!!!! and 2nd there is a buoy im looking at it's buoy 41101 that has winds of 18.1kts or in mph terms about 25mph!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101

[RL3AO]

A few days ago I though the wave that became 99L would clear out the dry air for the system behind it.

[windstorm99]

Whether or not this developes steering currents appear to be in our side and basically shoot this thing on a westward track with no problems for the united states.

[Derek Ortt]

QUIKSCAT this morning showed a wide open wave. It's structure is very poor (by that I mean non existent)

I have no clue at all what some are seeing regarding this system. It was not organized last night despite the transient flare up and is most certainly has no organization this afternoon.

[HURAKAN]

Based on the models we could have Dean-Flossie in our hands!!!

P.S. That's if 99E becomes Erick.

[RL3AO]

QUIKSCAT this morning showed a wide open wave. It's structure is very poor (by that I mean non existent)

I have no clue at all what some are seeing regarding this system. It was not organized last night despite the transient flare up and is most certainly has no organization this afternoon.

Since the NHC sees something with the system so does everyone else.

[dwg71]

Thanks Derek for a dose of reality. If you squint and look at your computer from the side, it looks ok But it is a huge stretch to say this is anything that is imminent to develop.

[hurricanefloyd5]

QUIKSCAT this morning showed a wide open wave. It's structure is very poor (by that I mean non existent)

I have no clue at all what some are seeing regarding this system. It was not organized last night despite the transient flare up and is most certainly has no organization this afternoon.

have to disagree somewhat i think it looked good late last night and could have been something but as of now it is still ill for now!!!!!!!!!!!!

[x-y-no]

2 things 1 im a cat.4 hurricane now !!!YEAH!!!!! and 2nd there is a buoy im looking at it's buoy 41101 that has winds of 18.1kts or in mph terms about 25mph!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101

That's a good distance - say 450 to 550 miles depending on where you want to put the center - WNW of our disturbance. And East winds of 15 to 20 knots isn't untypical for the trades.

This is a good buoy to watch over the next couple of days, though, as the disturbance passes to its south.

[hurricanefloyd5]

So dose anyone have a floater over this system please??????????????

[skysummit]

QUIKSCAT this morning showed a wide open wave. It's structure is very poor (by that I mean non existent)

I have no clue at all what some are seeing regarding this system. It was not organized last night despite the transient flare up and is most certainly has no organization this afternoon.

Ok, so throw out all the posts that say it's developing right now, or even looks organized. What are you long term opinions on this? Do you agree with the NHC that it still could develop in the next couple of days, or is it "shows over" for good?

[RL3AO]

So dose anyone have a floater over this system please??????????????

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

Can you quit using so many question marks? Just one will do.

[x-y-no]

So dose anyone have a floater over this system please??????????????

SSD floater 2

[Derek Ortt]

I do not really agree with the NHC and as my posts have stated, have not really agreed with them.

Last nights convective blow up was not in association with yesterdays center; thus, it did not surprise me at all to see it go poof this morning. It is what I had expected this to do (which is why I slept very well last night... did not have to think about this developing).

I'd keep watching the system, maybe it'll do something in a few days, but if it is heading straight west, it will crash into the mountains of Nicaragua before doing much of anything

[RL3AO]

Any sign of this dry air letting up Derek?

[Derek Ortt]

not really... it is going to take a few more days for the SAL to modify, and even then it had better move fairly quickly before the next SAL surge gets this one