Low Developing Off Wilmington?

[Cyclone1]

I could see this becoming 90L soon, possible subtropical development, IMO.

[jrod]

I might have to swing by the outer banks on my way to Florida this weekend if something develops. Now is there any one out there saaying this is going to be a quiet season?

[Jam151]

I might have to swing by the outer banks on my way to Florida this weekend if something develops. Now is there any one out there saaying this is going to be a quiet season?

well, it's moving away from the coast. and frontal-originating tropical storms in the west Atlantic are just as common (if not more frequent) in slow seasons

[jrod]

I know. Im just saying we have 4 areas(counting Chantel on the way out) areas of interest or potential areas of interest. It appears to me the season is starting to heat up right on schedule.

[Cyclone1]

I'm watching Chantal, 99L, Gulf blob, East Atl wave, wave off coast of Africa and this. 6 areas. Hard to keep up.

[RL3AO]

I'm watching Chantal, 99L, Gulf blob, East Atl wave, wave off coast of Africa and this. 6 areas. Hard to keep up.

Plus Usagi and what will be TD Eight-E in a few hours.

[Cyclone1]

I'm watching Chantal, 99L, Gulf blob, East Atl wave, wave off coast of Africa and this. 6 areas. Hard to keep up.

Plus Usagi and what will be TD Eight-E in a few hours.

Those, too.

[Bane]

this one isn't going to do anything.

[HURAKAN]

this one isn't going to do anything.

I respect your opinion, but it would be a valid opinion if your could support it.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks like it has some sort
of circulation:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsat.html
See how the clouds are being circled or
sucked into it...

[brunota2003]

Adding to my post from yesterday is todays AFD:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1040 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
[b]COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOW ON FRONT WILL DEEPEN
SLIGHTLY TODAY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST.[/b] HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADD 20 POPS INTO AFTN E OF COASTAL PLAINS. WDSPRD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG S COAST EARLY THIS MORNING IS MOVING S BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER NRN SECTIONS AND CANNOT RULE
OUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. MAIN DEEP MSTR AND LIFT
WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BUT LAST OF SHRT WVS AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITH NE FLOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH TRIGGER WITH HEATING AND DEW POINTS
IN LOWER 70S. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS.

And I quote myself...xD Question is, once this front washes out, will the low be gone or sitting off the coast still?

[jrod]

This is area is already producing a fetch of NNE winds. Even if it does not become orgainized it will produce some decent(by east coast standards) surf for the Outer Banks and south beaches that are not shadowed by the cape. I have seen a few models keeping the low around for a few days so that is a positve sign for me.

[brunota2003]

This is area is already producing a fetch of NNE winds. Even if it does not become orgainized it will produce some decent(by east coast standards) surf for the Outer Banks and south beaches that are not shadowed by the cape. I have seen a few models keeping the low around for a few days so that is a positve sign for me.

For the surfers, yea...maybe not for tropical development though...It all depends on if it sticks around or not.

[cpdaman]

Jrod lets point some of those winds SSW toward the palm beaches for thurs morning

next quikscat will be important and will be watching bouys


btw the chantal swell just started hitting the bouy that is 200miles east of cape may newjersey

pretty small 3.3 at 9.1 but bodyboardable and long boardable E facing new jersey beaches should get some as well as SE facing rhode island and east facing cape beaches starting late wed-early fri

hurricane/storm watchers i don't think this low off N.C will be named

[Bane]

this one isn't going to do anything.

I respect your opinion, but it would be a valid opinion if your could support it.

it has no look of a tropical or subtropical system at the moment. Looks to be in a sheared environment as well. purely frontal type system.

[HURAKAN]

this one isn't going to do anything.

I respect your opinion, but it would be a valid opinion if your could support it.

it has no look of a tropical or subtropical system at the moment. Looks to be in a sheared environment as well. purely frontal type system.

That's right. It will have to remain over warm waters for a few days until it can develop a tropical system. The problem will be if the system will remain over tropical waters over the next few days and how the favorable the environment is?

[Bane]

true, but it looks like it'll head on out to sea.

[brunota2003]

Just figured you would like to know our cutey pie off Cape Hatteras did indeed make it into the TWO:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL...RAPIDLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL ABOUT 260
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 425 MILES EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS
DISORGANIZED BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. EVEN IF
DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW
SQUALLS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR
FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
CAPE HATTERAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Chacor]

Canadian Hurricane Centre picks up on this in their latest Chantal advisory:

WORRY ABOUT SECOND TROPICAL LIKE CENTRE SHOWN ON 23Z QUICKSCAT
PASS AT 34N 72W. NO GALES INDICATED ON QUICKSCAT OR ON NEARBY SHIP
REPORTS OR BOUYS. MIAMI WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONVECTION ON THIS
ONE BEFORE MESSAGING. WE MAKE MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MARITIME MARINE SYNOPSIS.

An indication that NHC are looking at it with interest.

[Thunder44]

Canadian Hurricane Centre picks up on this in their latest Chantal advisory:

WORRY ABOUT SECOND TROPICAL LIKE CENTRE SHOWN ON 23Z QUICKSCAT
PASS AT 34N 72W. NO GALES INDICATED ON QUICKSCAT OR ON NEARBY SHIP
REPORTS OR BOUYS. MIAMI WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONVECTION ON THIS
ONE BEFORE MESSAGING. WE MAKE MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MARITIME MARINE SYNOPSIS.

An indication that NHC are looking at it with interest.

That's interesting, but NHC still in the 5:30 TWO still says it's an "extratropical low" and don't mention any potential for tropical development:

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND CAPE COD
MASSACHUSETTS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.