Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

[hurricanefloyd5]

holy cow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! on buoy 41040 winds at17.5kts.and gusts to 21.4kts so that would be rounding it off to about 25mph and gusts to26-27mph!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

[hurricanefloyd5]

So dose anyone have a floater over this system please??????????????

SSD floater 2

TYVM this should help

[fox13weather]

By my count, 90% of the posters here are ditching science and are doing their best to make a storm out of nothing more than a poorly organized tropical wave. While it is true that this may eventually develop, eliminating the wishing and the praying, and concentrating on sound meteorology, would make for a much more quality posting experience

[skysummit]

The strongest the 12z GFDL makes it is a tropical storm and then sends it to Nicaragua.

[chadtm80]

By my count, 90% of the posters here are ditching science and are doing their best to make a storm out of nothing more than a poorly organized tropical wave. While it is true that this may eventually develop, eliminating the wishing and the praying, and concentrating on sound meteorology, would make for a much more quality posting experience

A little more like 95%.. lol.. Sorry Fox.. Just have to learn to ignore some posts... Only way to stay sane

[fox13weather]

holy cow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! on buoy 41040 winds at17.5kts.and gusts to 21.4kts so that would be rounding it off to about 25mph and gusts to26-27mph!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

Welcome to the trades ....that is not that big of a deal. The wind direction and pressure will be more important.

[x-y-no]

By my count, 90% of the posters here are ditching science and are doing their best to make a storm out of nothing more than a poorly organized tropical wave. While it is true that this may eventually develop, eliminating the wishing and the praying, and concentrating on sound meteorology, would make for a much more quality posting experience

Well, yes that's true. It's also nothing new here or in most places that allow open membership and participation.

Our experience in the past (and hope for the future) is that as the season wears on and activity increases, the input from professionals like yourself and also from the stronger amateur members starts to outweigh the less informed enthusiasm.

[fox13weather]

By my count, 90% of the posters here are ditching science and are doing their best to make a storm out of nothing more than a poorly organized tropical wave. While it is true that this may eventually develop, eliminating the wishing and the praying, and concentrating on sound meteorology, would make for a much more quality posting experience

Well, yes that's true. It's also nothing new here or in most places that allow open membership and participation.

Our experience in the past (and hope for the future) is that as the season wears on and activity increases, the input from professionals like yourself and also from the stronger amateur members starts to outweigh the less informed enthusiasm.

There is something to be said for the pure entertainment value. It is a good thing that there is so much interest in tropical meteorology and science in general. I look forward to posting as the season gets cranked up ...

[Windsurfer_NYC]

QUIKSCAT this morning showed a wide open wave. It's structure is very poor (by that I mean non existent)

Then why has NHC called it a 1010 mb Low since 2AM, and analyzed it as closed on their surface analysis maps?

[CronkPSU]

By my count, 90% of the posters here are ditching science and are doing their best to make a storm out of nothing more than a poorly organized tropical wave. While it is true that this may eventually develop, eliminating the wishing and the praying, and concentrating on sound meteorology, would make for a much more quality posting experience

to quote Die Hard, welcome to the party! most of us keep our mouths shut and look for informed posts and weed through the rest of it, like someone said it is an open board but the mods do a great job of keeping everyone in check I think

[alienstorm]

If you look closely at the visible a LLC very weak at that is in the area of 13.0N 51.5W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

[skysummit]

993
WHXX01 KWBC 311844
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1844 UTC TUE JUL 31 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070731 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070731 1800 070801 0600 070801 1800 070802 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.2N 52.1W 12.5N 55.8W 13.8N 59.9W 15.0N 64.5W
BAMD 11.2N 52.1W 12.0N 54.8W 12.7N 57.8W 13.4N 60.8W
BAMM 11.2N 52.1W 12.0N 54.8W 12.8N 57.8W 13.4N 60.9W
LBAR 11.2N 52.1W 11.8N 54.8W 12.4N 57.9W 13.1N 61.2W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070802 1800 070803 1800 070804 1800 070805 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.3N 69.4W 18.5N 79.2W 20.4N 87.1W 22.0N 92.8W
BAMD 13.8N 63.8W 14.5N 70.2W 15.1N 76.7W 15.2N 82.9W
BAMM 14.0N 64.0W 15.2N 70.8W 16.1N 77.6W 16.5N 84.1W
LBAR 13.6N 64.7W 14.5N 71.7W 15.9N 77.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 49KTS 63KTS 73KTS 77KTS
DSHP 49KTS 63KTS 73KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 52.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 49.7W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 47.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[hurricanefloyd5]

If you look closely at the visible a LLC very weak at that is in the area of 13.0N 51.5W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

ISN'T THE POSSIBLE LOW moving to the nnw-nwward???????????

[MWatkins]

Was wanting to weigh in on this earlier...but...

1. There is considerable spread in the BAM guidance...indicative of some pretty significant vertical stacking issues ahead (from 12Z)

Shallow in 120 hours: 19.3 92.9
Medium: 14.2 76.2 (what is that? 1000 nautical miles apart?)
Deep: 16.4 82.0

2. Models aren't doing much with it...except...surprisingly the GFDL which for some reason isn't dropping it right away.

3. Even if it did develop it would likely end up in the Pacific basin

4. Not much left in the way of convection

5. QScat suggested it was an open wave earlier...

6. Pretty stable environment

I am going to take a guess that tasking will be cancelled tomorrow unless something significant happens in the next 12 hours or so.

However...this is a sign of things to come within the next 2 to 3 weeks. Won't be long now before we start seeing development in the MDR...although seeing Chantal develop so far north in late July makes me wonder a little...

MW

[Windtalker2]

By my count, 90% of the posters here are ditching science and are doing their best to make a storm out of nothing more than a poorly organized tropical wave. While it is true that this may eventually develop, eliminating the wishing and the praying, and concentrating on sound meteorology, would make for a much more quality posting experience

No offence....but when weathermen can predict basic weather correct more than 75% of the time....maybe I might start listening. Until then, we have to draw our own conclusions.

[Derek Ortt]

that comment was beyond cheap windtalker2.

[skysummit]

Very realistic post Mike. Thanks. I never thought of it that way with the huge seperation with the BAM brothers. Here are the 18z plots:

[RL3AO]

Those models keep inching further north.

[tolakram]

However...this is a sign of things to come within the next 2 to 3 weeks. Won't be long now before we start seeing development in the MDR...although seeing Chantal develop so far north in late July makes me wonder a little...

Wonder about what? Is far north development common for late season or early season storms?

[Derek Ortt]

Increased northward development tends to mean less development in the MDR (except in 2005 when we had both northern and MDR development)