Typhoon Usagi in Western Pacific

#81 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:54 pm

Officially a typhoon so now you can change the name.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0705 USAGI (0705) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310000UTC 21.7N 140.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 24.3N 137.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 020000UTC 28.4N 133.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 030000UTC 33.0N 131.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT

Chacor · #82 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 8:40 pm

647
FKPQ30 RJTD 310000
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070731/0000Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: USAGI
NR: 12
PSN: N2140 E14020
MOV: NW 08KT
C: 970HPA
MAX WIND: 65KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 31/1200Z N2300 E13900
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +18HR: NIL
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: NIL
FCST PSN +24HR: 01/0000Z N2420 E13730
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 85KT
NXT MSG: 20070731/0600Z =

#83 Postby **btangy** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:03 pm

Convection is having a bit of trouble maintaining itself in the core, which is a bit strange. Some flow at upper to mid levels might be undercutting the outflow due to the digging trough to the N preventing Usagi from intensifying quickly. Another possibility is that Usagi is currently moving over a minimum in upper ocean heat content, and once it moves a bit poleward of its current position, it will be able to intensify at a more rapid pace.

#84 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:23 pm

Hey Btangy.

I was just reading the latest JTWC Prognostic Reasoning and they mentioned there had been slight dry air entrainment with Usagi but they only expect it to be a temporary matter.

Chacor · #85 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:35 am

Eye is trying to form rather nicely now...

HurricaneRobert · #86 Postby **HurricaneRobert** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:43 am

This one has been slow to intensify, but there's definitely an eye.

#87 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 2:52 am

Up to 70kts now according to the 0600z update:

TY 0705 (USAGI)
Issued at 06:00 UTC, 31 July 2007RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0705 USAGI (0705)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 310600UTC 22.6N 139.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST

FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 25.1N 136.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 020600UTC 28.9N 132.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 030600UTC 32.8N 130.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT

#88 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:06 am

Expect this to be increased at the next advisory as the latest CI from Tokyo is now T6.0.

Chacor · #89 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:07 am

Hi PK, can I ask where you're getting RJTD's fixes?

Chacor · #90 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:11 am

Nice clear eye now.

Chacor · #91 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:57 am

TY 0705 (USAGI)
Issued at 12:00 UTC, 31 July 2007
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0705 USAGI (0705)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311200UTC 23.4N 139.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 26.3N 135.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 021200UTC 30.0N 132.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 031200UTC 34.1N 130.6E 290NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT

Chacor · #92 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:01 am

Up to 105 kt from JTWC.

WTPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 05W (USAGI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 23.5N 138.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 138.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 25.1N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 27.1N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 29.2N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 31.1N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 35.5N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 40.6N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 44.8N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 138.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 05W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

HurricaneBill · #93 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 2:19 pm

Typhoon Usagi?

#94 Postby **Andrew92** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 2:52 pm

So beautiful looking, yet so destructive. Hope it stays away from land.

-Andrew92

#95 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 2:59 pm

looking good

#96 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 3:00 pm

The visible eye is getting round now.

#97 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 3:51 pm

It's up to 115 kt (Cat 4) now according to JTWC. They now predict this will become a super typhoon.

Category 5 · #98 Postby **Category 5** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 6:03 pm

Thats a big eye! How big across is it?

#99 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 6:06 pm

Looks like the inner eyewall is about 60 miles or so in diameter.

#100 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:10 pm

Yup, looks like this has really got it's act together overnight. Just about to leave for the airport. Flying to Fukuoka in Japan to intercept this.

Typhoon Usagi in Western Pacific

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