Tropical Storm Erick E-PAC.

[hurricanefloyd5]

it's not offichale yet but by 5 PM today a new Depression will show up there in the E-PAC!!

I know this because the NAVY is showing a new Depression now!!!!!!!!!!!!!



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... rovap/dmsp

[RL3AO]

Usually we wait until it is official...but ok.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Usually we wait until it is official...but ok.

I know but i thought i get the word out ASAP for people who didn't know about it now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[RL3AO]

Why do you always end every post in !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! or ????????????????? ?

[RL3AO]

Change the name to EPac: Tropical Depression Eight-E or something.

[RL3AO]

10-20kt shear over it. Shear looks pretty good for now but there is 50-70kt shear over Hawaii.

[JonathanBelles]

Next time wait until there is an advisory.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082007
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 31 2007

SHEARED BUT STRONG CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR ABOUT 12 HR NEAR AND
TO THE WEST OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 1125 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON
THIS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WITH
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT...A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE
SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/12. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL SHOW A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH
OF THE DEPRESSION...ALBEIT A RIDGE WITH A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY
DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING TO ITS NORTH JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA. THE
MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO PERSIST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
THROUGH 120 HR. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE WESTWARD
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SPEED A SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. NHC
TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS...
WHICH MERGES THE DEPRESSION WITH ANOTHER CYCLONE FORMING TO THE
EAST. WHILE THERE IS A BROAD DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION...
IT CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT IT WILL DEVELOP FAST ENOUGH FOR
THE NOGAPS TO VERIFY. THUS...THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 10 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE ABOUT 20
KT OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR IMPINGING ON THE DEPRESSION. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THE GFS...THE ECMWF...AND THE NOGAPS
FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE IN LESS THAN 24 HR...WHILE THE
CANADIAN AND THE UKMET FORECAST HOSTILE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
BEYOND THAT TIME. FOR NOW...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE CANADIAN/UKMET SOLUTIONS AND CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING
AFTER 24 HR. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT
SURVIVE THE FIRST 24 HR DUE TO THE SHEAR AND DRY AIR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 13.3N 123.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 13.6N 125.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 13.9N 127.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 14.1N 129.8W 35 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 14.1N 132.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 14.0N 136.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 14.0N 140.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Andrew92]

I kinda hope it either fizzles without becoming a storm, or becomes a hurricane. It's just time for there to be a Hurricane Erick for the first time, IMO.

I admit it, it's a guilty pleasure of mine to "pull" for names to become hurricanes that have struggled for years without ever becoming one, so long as they don't affect land.

-Andrew92

[Derek Ortt]

This depression is one to watch it appears. Should stay south of the cold waters. We just need to get that trough away from the islands by the time this approaches, or else we may be in for a problem or two.

[RL3AO]

70kt shear just south of the Big Island. Looks like it will stay south of Hawaii if it can survive the night.

[AnnularCane]

I kinda hope it either fizzles without becoming a storm, or becomes a hurricane. It's just time for there to be a Hurricane Erick for the first time, IMO.

I admit it, it's a guilty pleasure of mine to "pull" for names to become hurricanes that have struggled for years without ever becoming one, so long as they don't affect land.

-Andrew92

I understand, but I hope you don't mind if I root for him. The EPAC has seen enough unnamed depressions.

[RL3AO]

It is amazing how much La Nina affects the EPac.

[hurricanefloyd5]

this year the E-PAC is like 1 or 2 names ahead of our season!!!!!!!

[RL3AO]

this year the E-PAC is like 1 or 2 names ahead of our season!!!!!!!

It should be 4 or 5 names ahead of the Atlantic this time of year.

[hurricanefloyd5]

if im not mistaking we are now working on the d name and the E-PAC working on the d name as well right so we should be tied as of now right???????

[hurricanefloyd5]

opps my bad lol

[RL3AO]

Climatologically there should have been 7 or 8 storms in the EPac with 1 or 2 in the Atlantic. TD8E will be Erick if it gets named.

[Andrew92]

Patience, my friend. As RL3AO said, the EPAC is usually more active this time of year. If anything, the EPAC may be below normal because only one storm has been a hurricane so far, and only for about 12 hours.

The Atlantic will likely catch up later this year.

-Andrew92

[RL3AO]

The EPac is way below average.

EDIT: So is the WPac. There have been seasons with 17 storms by now and the average right now is 13 storms...Usagi is #5.