Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

[gatorcane]

NHC is still suggesting possible development over the next couple of days....

I agree with them although I may be suggesting it a bit quicker than they are. I would have to agree with them.

[Brent]

Tons of dry air...

But I'm not giving up, I just don't think development is imminent. It's going to need a significant flareup tonight and into tomorrow for the recon to go out though.

I wish it would develop, I'm tired of invests that don't amount to anything.

[skysummit]

MGC..I wouldn't go as far as saying it has DONE its work. The NHC still believes development is possible.

For everyone saying "it's over" or "poof", are you talking about for good...or just for today?

[Air Force Met]

Lets talk in about 12 hours....I'm still insisting we will see development and convection will refire during the nightime hours.

It's still got a nice spin, just needs that little spark.

I respect the opinion of pro mets on this board, but I'm sticking to my thoughts on this.

Good for you. Always stick to your guns when you've got some science to back it up. The NHC apparently agrees with you as far as possible development right now.

They say it has a chance in the next couple of days....and that sums it up: The next couple of days. Nothing real soon...nothing tomorrow morning...maybe later. When the NHC thinks it will be in the next 24 hours the TWOAT usually says "in the next day or so."

Right now if you look at an IR loop, you can see an extensive area of clouds (dense cirrostratus) streaming northward. This is a relatively low CS deck with IR temps in the -10C - -15C range so its not blow-off. What that tells me is the environment around the wave right now is pretty stable. It has some moisture around...it's not that dry around the axis...but with a dense CS deck around...don't look for a convective explosion anytime soon. There may be a deep convective re-fire out ahead of the axis a little later...during the diurnal max and that might alter the stability some...but take a look at the IR loop and all the cirrostratus. Just a sign to me that 99L has at least another pulse or two before anything can take off. The stability isn't right and in order for the convection to be maintained and a closed LLC to be produced...that has to be changed.

Everything else looks good...winds..etc. The stability.That's iffy.

[vaffie]

Back to "Too Weak" by Dvorak:
31/1745 UTC 12.3N 51.3W TOO WEAK 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

Puerto Rico Forecast Discussion:
.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE TILTED NNW-SSE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES APPEARED AS THOUGH IT WAS GOING TO ZIP ON THROUGH THE REGIONAL CARIB WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON STLT IMAGERY REVEALS NW TO NLY LOW CLOUD MOTION W OF THE SRN LEEWARDS AND THE WINDWARDS...AND FURTHER EXAMINATION SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROPICAL WAVE HAS STILL YET TO DETACH FROM THE REMNANT MONSOONAL TROUGH SEGMENT AND DEEP LAYERED TROFFING STILL TO ITS S AND SE. N PORTION OF THIS WAVE MAY STILL MOVE ON THROUGH THE CARIB WATERS OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS ELONGATED AND DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL TROFFING BETWEEN 60W AND 50W IS GOING TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SLOWER THAN RECENT GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED...AND I DO NOT EXPECT THE TROPICAL/LOW(S) ALONG 51/53W TO BE SOUTH OF PR BY 48 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY GFS AND NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS...MUCH...OR MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO TROPICAL FEATURES SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...AND JUST SCRAPE THE LOCAL CARIB WATERS WITH VERY SQUALLY WEATHER NEXT 48-60 HRS...OR POSSIBLY LONGER INTO FRIDAY. ALBANY DIAGNOSTICS PAGE SHOWING THESE CONNECTIONS WELL. GFS CONTINUES TO BE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIB WATERS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE TONED DOWN TO A BLEND OF WNA GFS AND NAM FOR THE TIME BEING...THIS BEING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS TROPICAL LOW STILL ELONGATED NE-SW ALONG 51-53W...WITH ENE FLOW ACROSS THE TOP AND RELATIVELY DEEP SLY FLOW COMING FROM 20S INTO THIS CIRCULATION. ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THUS OCCUR FROM N OR NE MOST VORTEX...AND AT THE PRESENT TIME...STLT AND MICROWAVE PASSES STILL SUGGEST AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THUS THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE TIME TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...IF AT ALL. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING OF THIS WAVE/LOW...HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECASTS...AND HAVE YET TO ISSUE SCA FOR LOCAL WATERS...BUT WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOCAL CARIB WATERS.

Pressure at 41040 buoy dropped dramatically in last two hours to 1011.1 mb. Will be interesting to see how it changes over the night time. ENE wind at 17 knots.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=STN

[drezee]

The next 6-12 hours will be the moment of truth if you want development before the islands.

[RL3AO]

Just a comment here. Normally when a disturbance loses convection the NHC will say something like "The system has not gotten better organized but some development is possible during the next 48 hours.", but with this system they are saying "ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS".

Now that might not mean a whole lot, but I've noticed the NHC doesn't mention the words "Tropical depression" in the TWO (which the regular public looks at) unless they think the system has a really good chance to form.

[jasons2k]

I still don't expect much from this wave until it gets to the central or western Caribbean, assuming it makes it that far. We shall see.

[Normandy]

Aternoon Thoughts,
AFM sums it up fairly well, and folks need to listen to him and the NHC and their thoughts. What did you guys expect for this to do? Develop into a depression today? No way. Its going to slow organize if its going to become a tropical cyclone, and it has gotten progressively better organized. Three days ago, it was embedded in the ITCZ. Two days ago, it organized into a nice wave. One day ago, it formed its MLC. And today, it has a weak surface feature. Thats the epitome of slow development, and the process should continue. Expect a burst of convection tonight, just as it does mostly everynight, and expect better organization by tomorrow. This won't be classified before reaching the Caribbean likely. You guys ride the highs and lows of tropical waves WAY too hard.

[caribepr]

Playing the Jeopardy theme song here...

[Ivanhater]

looks really sad right now...still have to wait for tonight to see...

[HurricaneHunter914]

Right now this thing looks sadder than ever, but if the NHC still thinks it has the potential to be a TD then maybe this still has hope. But I really don't see anything forming with all that dry air ahead of it.

[RL3AO]

Right now this thing looks sadder than ever, but if the NHC still thinks it has the potential to be a TD then maybe this still has hope. But I really don't see anything forming with all that dry air ahead of it.

A lot of the dry air is now moist air in front of it.

[HURAKAN]

Lets wait until tomorrow morning to see how the system responds to the diurnal maximum.

[stormy70]

I am going with the experts. They have the education and not me.

[RL3AO]

Lets wait until tomorrow morning to see how the system responds to the diurnal maximum.

You mean where it will gain a lot of convection tonight and there will be 15 pages saying "TD at 5pm" but then during the afternoon convection will die and we will have 10 pages saying "dead" with 10 guys saying "see how the system responds to the diurnal maximum"?



A little sarcasm but pretty much fact.

[HURAKAN]

Lets wait until tomorrow morning to see how the system responds to the diurnal maximum.

You mean where it will gain a lot of convection tonight and there will be 15 pages saying "TD at 5pm" but then during the afternoon convection will die and we will have 10 pages saying "dead" with 10 guys saying "see how the system responds to the diurnal maximum"?

A little sarcasm but pretty much fact.

I will say you are 75% right!!!

[Brent]

Lets wait until tomorrow morning to see how the system responds to the diurnal maximum.

You mean where it will gain a lot of convection tonight and there will be 15 pages saying "TD at 5pm" but then during the afternoon convection will die and we will have 10 pages saying "dead" with 10 guys saying "see how the system responds to the diurnal maximum"?



A little sarcasm but pretty much fact.

Yep...

[Cyclone1]

Lets wait until tomorrow morning to see how the system responds to the diurnal maximum.

You mean where it will gain a lot of convection tonight and there will be 15 pages saying "TD at 5pm" but then during the afternoon convection will die and we will have 10 pages saying "dead" with 10 guys saying "see how the system responds to the diurnal maximum"?



A little sarcasm but pretty much fact.

Dude you nailed it!

[HURAKAN]

If you create a better system to forecast tropical cyclone development, let me know. The waiting game and guessing game is always alive in the Atlantic.