Folks, watch the ITCZ behind 99L

[Normandy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Does that look familiar? Remember how 99L formed at the same lattitude from basically the same origins (ITCZ)? Well, the ITCZ is flaring up very very nicely, and looking at the IR2 Channel low level clouds are flying westward (behind 99L) into the ITCZ. Something could get going here behind 99L and follow a similar path (since its at such a low lattitude).

We should watch this area for more development in the short term.

[skysummit]

I agree Normandy. That surely does look familiar.

[punkyg]

Do you think this wave will make away from the ITCZ and escape the SAL
and make it to the carribean and possibly develop?

[Normandy]

^I think it could potentially follow the same course that 99L has followed thus far. IE slow development and a track towards the Carribean.

[alan1961]

yes its flaring a bit

[Normandy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Afternoon Thoughts,
Nothing seems to have completely consolidated yet, but expect any kind of development to be further west (perhaps where storms are still flaring up tonight). A huge and very nicely developed wave is coming off Africa and likely any development farther east in the ITCZ will be when that wave arrives.

[flwxwatcher]

99L and the wave behind it could help moisten up the Atmosphere for the next wave about to emerge from Africa.

[Normandy]

Things starting to look more intersting, thunderstorms seem to be consolidating around 37W 10N. Looks just like the situation a couple of days ago that spawned 99L.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[Weatherfreak14]

well this could be 90L real soon.

[RL3AO]

Think we will get a 1030 TWO mention from this? It is gaining convection really good and it is only 11pm near the wave.

[Normandy]

^Probably just a mention regarding the ITCZ producing scattered and sparse convection and whatnot....I don't think its concentrated enough just yet to warrant a mention (well a serious one). Its getting better organized though, looks like 99L all over again.

[Normandy]

Late Evening Thoughts,

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html

First links shows the IR Channel-2, and I posted this to illustrate how much inflow this feature has, and clouds all the way near 99L are being drawn back into the ITCZ and this wave in particular. The area also has good inflow from the south as well.

Second link shows the WV Loop and it seems like dry air shouldn't be toooo much of a problem.

Third link is to show how convection has persisted for a good deal of time in this same area. Go ahead and run a 30 frame loop of the disturbance (Its right behind 99L, hard to miss). Convection has waned along the rest of the ITCZ (perhaps in response to that monstrous wave that just moved off the African Coast) and has concentrated itself in this one area. This same situation occured with 99L and it is playing out EXACTLY like that scenario did.

We should watch this disturbance tomorrow, and if convection continues to persists look for an invest to be designated.