Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

[Air Force Met]

Really, I think that what it boils down to is this: People want to see cyclogenesis to spice up the otherwise relatively boring season that we have had thus far and were spoiled by 2005. Thus, when the experts tell them that the system they are following is not likely to develop in the way they want it to, their instinct is to argue and doubt the expert opinion because they don't want to accept the fact that the particular system being followed isn't one that is going to amount to much and they won't be able to indulge their interest.

Now, I haven't the faintest clue what 99L will do or not do. I'm not a met but I do understand psychology at least somewhat and that's why I posted. This happens time after time after time.

The words nail and head come to mind when I read your post. People were spoiled by 2005...not just people on this board. When I give briefings to the Chief of Staffs and the CG...they keep wondering WHERE O WHERE are the storms? I have to remind them 2005 was an anomaly and what is happening NOW is a normal season...actually a little above normal.

As far as wanting cyclogenesis...not me. During one stretch in 2005 I worked 40 straight 16-18+ hour days (Katrina to after Rita). As soon as something becomes a threat...I am on call. I am a DoD first responder for a 4 star command (that covers every state in the lower 48). Leave get canceled...sleep gets deprived...and I rather liked the down time last year. Of course it can happen with an earthquake, major flood or terrorist event...but Hurricanes have the big attention.

So...while I said 99L has a chance...and I do think it does...understand I am PERSONALLY rooting against it.

[RL3AO]

What? You mean 5 major canes in September is not the norm? You mean 4 major canes hitting the US every year is not the norm? Amazing!

[miamicanes177]

521
WHXX01 KWBC 010043
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0043 UTC WED AUG 1 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070801 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070801 0000 070801 1200 070802 0000 070802 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 53.3W 12.6N 56.9W 13.7N 61.1W 14.9N 66.0W
BAMD 11.3N 53.3W 12.2N 56.1W 13.0N 59.1W 13.6N 62.3W
BAMM 11.3N 53.3W 12.1N 56.1W 12.9N 59.2W 13.5N 62.5W
LBAR 11.3N 53.3W 11.9N 56.2W 12.6N 59.3W 13.2N 62.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070803 0000 070804 0000 070805 0000 070806 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 71.1W 19.0N 80.9W 21.0N 88.3W 23.1N 93.4W
BAMD 14.0N 65.5W 14.6N 72.5W 15.1N 79.9W 15.0N 86.8W
BAMM 14.0N 66.1W 15.1N 73.6W 15.9N 81.2W 16.1N 88.3W
LBAR 13.7N 66.1W 14.6N 72.9W 13.8N 78.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 55KTS 68KTS 78KTS 84KTS
DSHP 55KTS 68KTS 78KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 53.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 50.5W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 49.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[TheShrimper]

In terms of my prognastications Normandy, absolutely not. But realize, I wouldn't be so emphatic or make declarations claiming my superiority, which seems to run rampant here by ones who have "titles",... big deal. And you are wrong about your assumptions regarding knowledge aquired. There are many on this board, that do not make there living from what they know about tropical cyclogenesis, yet they rival the ones that do. There are many that coach or manage at the professional sports level that never played at the level of those they oversee, yet they turn out being the best. You need not have some sub title or initals after your posting name, to understand what is going on. Don't underestimate yourself or the capabilities of others in what they have to say.

[philnyc]

Really, I think that what it boils down to is this: People want to see cyclogenesis to spice up the otherwise relatively boring season that we have had thus far and were spoiled by 2005. Thus, when the experts tell them that the system they are following is not likely to develop in the way they want it to, their instinct is to argue and doubt the expert opinion because they don't want to accept the fact that the particular system being followed isn't one that is going to amount to much and they won't be able to indulge their interest.

Now, I haven't the faintest clue what 99L will do or not do. I'm not a met but I do understand psychology at least somewhat and that's why I posted. This happens time after time after time.

The words nail and head come to mind when I read your post. People were spoiled by 2005...not just people on this board. When I give briefings to the Chief of Staffs and the CG...they keep wondering WHERE O WHERE are the storms? I have to remind them 2005 was an anomaly and what is happening NOW is a normal season...actually a little above normal.

As far as wanting cyclogenesis...not me. During one stretch in 2005 I worked 40 straight 16-18+ hour days (Katrina to after Rita). As soon as something becomes a threat...I am on call. I am a DoD first responder for a 4 star command (that covers every state in the lower 48). Leave get canceled...sleep gets deprived...and I rather liked the down time last year. Of course it can happen with an earthquake, major flood or terrorist event...but Hurricanes have the big attention.

So...while I said 99L has a chance...and I do think it does...understand I am PERSONALLY rooting against it.

Nice commentary from both of you guys. It's the people who might suffer from these storms (whether personal damage or long hours at the "office") who fear them the most each season. But you have to admit that we all have a fascination with their very unique and unusual structure and behavior. And it's the current inability of the science to forecast them perfectly that drives most of us to follow them. We all want to "get it right".

[flashflood]

You know As expected, the system has deteriorated quite a bit throughout the day today. Although a pulse of convection during the evening hours is almost always a given due to the nature of these systems, one should not expect it to be organized enough due to the not very favorable environment this system is embedded in, including but not limited to dry air, southerly low-mid level shear coming from NE South America, poor convergence, etc.

When this system reaches the central and western Caribbean conditions could improve and we'll need to monitor it more closely.

I have noticed this on the satellite before and quite often see the SA shear heading NE while a tropical entity is approaching that area. It appears that it could be caused by the out flow of the convection over SA, and kind of reminds me of an el-nino type situation but at a different location. I was a bit surprised to see someone mention that low-mid level shear, since I was thinking that it was not much of a detrimental factor. If you get a chance, could post some more info on what exactly is casing the shear and how much of a factor it is involved in disrupting the circulation.

[SouthFloridawx]

the wave behind this around 37W 9N is developing into an invest. Maybe 99L can clear the path for it.

Actually as I understand it, the wave behind the leading wave would actually help 99L Develop by getting rid of dry air. However, I don't think that will matter, in fact it looks like conditions will be a "go ahead" for this system to develop.

I would tend to think that the wave the just exited the coast is going to help create some potential for, "90L" the wave currently at 35 West.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

Just to clarify, I don't think that the wave at 35W will help 99L. I think that 99L will end up developing in the Caribbean and move towards C. America or mexico. The intensity or scope is totally unknown, but I do think we'll end up seeing a little something from 99L.

I do think that the wave that just exited the coast will give a big boost to the wave @ 35W.

[clfenwi]

(doing a lot of snipping to bring the focus to what I'm interested in here)

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070801 0000 UTC


LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 53.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 50.5W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 49.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

It's a curiosity as to what caused them to up the initial windspeed to 25 knots (it's been at 20 every time up to this point). Seems like the difference between the output of this SHIPS run and previous ones could be entirely attributed to this increase.

[x-y-no]

It's a curiosity as to what caused them to up the initial windspeed to 25 knots (it's been at 20 every time up to this point). Seems like the difference between the output of this SHIPS run and previous ones could be entirely attributed to this increase.

Yes, I noticed that too. Don't know why they initilized at 25 (note they set the -12 hour wind at 25 knots also)

[Derek Ortt]

have just checked the nighttime vis... watch the area near 53W. If anything goes, that will be the one. There seems to be a little more rotation than earlier today there (while we were all watching the larger clump near 50W... any circ has quitely migrated farther west and is behind the convection... which MAY indicate that the low level shear is decreasing somewhat

[punkyg]

Td 4 maybe

[Recurve]

Really, I think that what it boils down to is this: People want to see cyclogenesis to spice up the otherwise relatively boring season that we have had thus far and were spoiled by 2005. Thus, when the experts tell them that the system they are following is not likely to develop in the way they want it to, their instinct is to argue and doubt the expert opinion because they don't want to accept the fact that the particular system being followed isn't one that is going to amount to much and they won't be able to indulge their interest.

Now, I haven't the faintest clue what 99L will do or not do. I'm not a met but I do understand psychology at least somewhat and that's why I posted. This happens time after time after time.

You've been here before

[jaxfladude]

Lull, please come back we miss you already....

[dixiebreeze]

Back on Dvorak:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
31/2345 UTC 11.9N 53.2W T1.0/1.0 99L

[TheShrimper]

Wow, I can't believe that is happening Derek. Please explain the quick transition, I would like to know what to look for the next time a flailing system somehow may be ressurected.

[windstorm99]

[Weatherfreak14]

yep, convection is starting back slowly right now right near the center, it has some moisture all around to work with.

[Cyclone1]

Wow, it's... undead.

[jasons2k]

I would hardly say that pro mets claiming their superiority, etc., runs "rampant" on this board. For the most part, the pro mets here are incredibly patient, understanding, and forthcoming with knowledge that most amateurs simply do not have. Sometimes painstakingly so. And for the most part, a professional, degreed meteorologist will understand intricacies of the weather at a level of detail that most of us cannot touch. They do indeed deserve a level of professional respect and most of the time when a regular "Joe Blow" tries to discredit a pro met he's just crying sour grapes.

Yes, there may be one or two people I can think of that just b/c they have a Met degree and have completed X number of research hours it has gone to his/her head a bit, may even sound condescending at times, but that is quite the minority. For every pro met like that there may be 20 amateurs that do this - without the credentials to even back it up, so I think singling-out the pro mets is a bit unfair.

Almost all of the pro mets here dedicate countless hours - in their spare time, no less - posting invaluable information for us to consume, and FOR FREE. I'm a degreed professional in my field and believe me, I don't sit-up late at night dispensing free information on message boards. What our pro mets contribute is completely selfless and I believe almost every member on this board is incredibly grateful for this.

Believe me, it's much better here than some of the other forums out there. If you want to see what some real pompous mets have to say, then look elsewhere, but for the most part you won't find that on S2K. Let's keep things in perspective, please. Our pro mets are first rate and S2K wouldn't be what it is without them. My $.02.

[Weatherfreak14]

I have the most respect for the Mets on here, each one has a own opinion and just like us amateurs and future mets on here have an opinion also.