Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

[srainhoutx]

I would hardly say that pro mets claiming their superiority, etc., runs "rampant" on this board. For the most part, the pro mets here are incredibly patient, understanding, and forthcoming with knowledge that most amateurs simply do not have. Sometimes painstakingly so. And for the most part, a professional, degreed meteorologist will understand intricacies of the weather at a level of detail that most of us cannot touch. They do indeed deserve a level of professional respect and most of the time when a regular "Joe Blow" tries to discredit a pro met he's just crying sour grapes.

Yes, there may be one or two people I can think of that just b/c they have a Met degree and have completed X number of research hours it has gone to his/her head a bit, may even sound condescending at times, but that is quite the minority. For every pro met like that there may be 20 amateurs that do this - without the credentials to even back it up, so I think singling-out the pro mets is a bit unfair.

Almost all of the pro mets here dedicate countless hours - in their spare time, no less - posting invaluable information for us to consume, and FOR FREE. I'm a degreed professional in my field and believe me, I don't sit-up late at night dispensing free information on message boards. What our pro mets contribute is completely selfless and I believe almost every member on this board is incredibly grateful for this.

Believe me, it's much better here than some of the other forums out there. If you want to see what some real pompous mets have to say, then look elsewhere, but for the most part you won't find that on S2K. Let's keep things in perspective, please. Our pro mets are first rate and S2K wouldn't be what it is without them. My $.02.

excellent post and totally agree

[RL3AO]

ZOMG! Is it a cane yet?

J/K.

Here we go again. Build build build but can it hold on tomorrow. That is the question.

[windstorm99]

ZOMG! Is it a cane yet?

J/K.

Here we go again. Build build build but can it hold on tomorrow. That is the question.

It will be hard for it maintain that convection with all that dry air surrounding it.

Dry air is all over the caribbean but it might have a chance but things look really stable out there.

[Derek Ortt]

I think the change may be due to the SAL modifying. The SAL is associated with low level easterly shear along with the dry air (the dry air won't do much if there is not shear to disrupt the convection as it is the convection that modifies any dry air

It still has a long ways to go though and I'd like to see a better convective pattern before giving this a better chance of developing. But the atmosphere may be SLOWLY changing

[RL3AO]

It needs to keep this convection that it will build tonight (probably) into the afternoon when the hunters will head out and probably confirm that it is a depression.

[fox13weather]

I would hardly say that pro mets claiming their superiority, etc., runs "rampant" on this board. For the most part, the pro mets here are incredibly patient, understanding, and forthcoming with knowledge that most amateurs simply do not have. Sometimes painstakingly so. And for the most part, a professional, degreed meteorologist will understand intricacies of the weather at a level of detail that most of us cannot touch. They do indeed deserve a level of professional respect and most of the time when a regular "Joe Blow" tries to discredit a pro met he's just crying sour grapes.

Yes, there may be one or two people I can think of that just b/c they have a Met degree and have completed X number of research hours it has gone to his/her head a bit, may even sound condescending at times, but that is quite the minority. For every pro met like that there may be 20 amateurs that do this - without the credentials to even back it up, so I think singling-out the pro mets is a bit unfair.

Almost all of the pro mets here dedicate countless hours - in their spare time, no less - posting invaluable information for us to consume, and FOR FREE. I'm a degreed professional in my field and believe me, I don't sit-up late at night dispensing free information on message boards. What our pro mets contribute is completely selfless and I believe almost every member on this board is incredibly grateful for this.

Believe me, it's much better here than some of the other forums out there. If you want to see what some real pompous mets have to say, then look elsewhere, but for the most part you won't find that on S2K. Let's keep things in perspective, please. Our pro mets are first rate and S2K wouldn't be what it is without them. My $.02.

Nice post. As I said earlier, the facts are people are interested in the tropics, they are paying attention, and they are trying to learn the science. This board is a great place to discuss and learn about a fascinating science. I scan it often but rarely post. I posted earlier today because the -removed- had gotten to the point that it was laughable. To each his own. Concerning 99L. I have seen TD's development in worse environments than this. Slow, uneven development (this system is dead, this looks like TD4 already) is likely and if it can hang around until it gets into a more climatologically favored area for development then we may have something.

[Weatherfreak14]

I think the change may be due to the SAL modifying. The SAL is associated with low level easterly shear along with the dry air (the dry air won't do much if there is not shear to disrupt the convection as it is the convection that modifies any dry air

It still has a long ways to go though and I'd like to see a better convective pattern before giving this a better chance of developing. But the atmosphere may be SLOWLY changing

I agree derek.. things are slowly changing out ahead of the invest and i think further down the road this may develop but i think it will remain an invest, but there is still that chance the RECON is going out tommrow.

[canegrl04]

We aren't likely to see any canes form for awhile,or many TSs for that matter.Not till the dry air dissipates

[wxman57]

Not looking too good to me, either. It just can't re-fire that convection. And I think the eastern Caribbean will be even less hospitable than where it is now. I think development chances are now on the low side. Fine with me. That's one strong disturbance moving off Africa now, though.

[windstorm99]

I need to see persistence with some decent thunderstorm activity through tommorow night.

[TheShrimper]

I agree wholeheartedly jschlitz. However, the assertiveness involved, needs to be curtailed. No fingers need pointed. You, myself and a whole host of others just didn't fall off the tomato truck in Immokalee. Now, back to posting about 99L. TheShrimper.

[tolakram]

Let's hope I don't post 3 bogus quickscat images in a row

This appears to be from 22:00, or 6pm EDT. Please correct me if I'm wrong. It might have just missed the center (f there is one).




edit: I used this handy page for UTC conversion: http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/zulu-utc.html

[clfenwi]

Let's hope I don't post 3 bogus quickscat images in a row

This appears to be from 22:00, or 6pm EDT. Please correct me if I'm wrong. It might have just missed the center (f there is one).

The time is in Zulu/GMT/UTC, which is 4 hours ahead of EDT, which makes the time 2 PM. And yes, it did miss the center of the area of interest. The NRL pass log indicates that the overnight pass will be more or less right over it.

[tolakram]

The time is in Zulu/GMT/UTC, which is 4 hours ahead of EDT, which makes the time 2 PM. And yes, it did miss the center of the area of interest. The NRL pass log indicates that the overnight pass will be more or less right over it.

I'm confused. 22:00 - 4 = 18:00 which is 6pm. Just making sure.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Staring intently at the floater IR2 loop, there is a center of rotation just East of where the storms are firing.


Well, starting the two months of the real season for Texas. Because, unlike Florida, late September means all over, and enjoy the college football. 1989's Jerry was, IIRC, the only Texas hurricane in October in the last six decades. That weekend, BTW, I was at The Cotton Bowl as Texas upset Oklahoma. Of course, the June storm in 2001 would have ruined my carpets if I hadn't stuffed towels against the doors, as the mud line came up about half an inch above the bottom of the door.


I get excited about storms of almost any nature, but now that I am a homeowner with kids, anything more than a quick moving T.S. is more aggravation than the excitement is worth.

[clfenwi]

I think the change may be due to the SAL modifying. The SAL is associated with low level easterly shear along with the dry air (the dry air won't do much if there is not shear to disrupt the convection as it is the convection that modifies any dry air

It still has a long ways to go though and I'd like to see a better convective pattern before giving this a better chance of developing. But the atmosphere may be SLOWLY changing

I'm inclined to agree with regard to SAL modification. If one looks at the five day movie of the CIMSS SAL analysis, one can see a significant difference between the beginning and end of the time period.

Also, check out the latest hovmoller diagram and compare the most recent picture to that of two days ago. Like this evening, there was a tropical wave crossing the Islands. Unlike the one that's crossing this evening, it barely shows up in the imagery.

[philnyc]

have just checked the nighttime vis... watch the area near 53W. If anything goes, that will be the one. There seems to be a little more rotation than earlier today there (while we were all watching the larger clump near 50W... any circ has quitely migrated farther west and is behind the convection... which MAY indicate that the low level shear is decreasing somewhat

Hi Derek,
Nice analysis. A lot of us forget to check ALL of the tools we have available. But of course, there's a huge amount of them now so it's really hard to keep up with it all. It's really important now to watch where the convection is relative to the wave axis. My one question would be: You said the low level shear is decreasing. Could you please explain what level is low level in a case like this? Do you mean from 850 up to about 700mb? 700mb is certainly the start of the mid levels. Is it because the storm is currently so shallow?

[clfenwi]

The time is in Zulu/GMT/UTC, which is 4 hours ahead of EDT, which makes the time 2 PM. And yes, it did miss the center of the area of interest. The NRL pass log indicates that the overnight pass will be more or less right over it.

I'm confused. 22:00 - 4 = 18:00 which is 6pm. Just making sure.

Argh, don't mind me, I'm guilty of making the conversion in my head subconciously and then deducting four hours. I *knew* the pass wouldn't have been that early, but I couldn't figure out why. Duh.

Anyhow, to follow upon what I was saying WRT the next pass, the NRL log shows it occuring at 0915Z/0415 EDT, with a Closest Point of Approach of 260 km / 159 miles.

[Brent]

have just checked the nighttime vis... watch the area near 53W. If anything goes, that will be the one. There seems to be a little more rotation than earlier today there (while we were all watching the larger clump near 50W... any circ has quitely migrated farther west and is behind the convection... which MAY indicate that the low level shear is decreasing somewhat

I'm interested in that blob too, but MUCH more cautious than last night. I want to see if it can hold together longer than just overnight. Something to watch...

[miamicanes177]

Yes, there may be one or two people I can think of that just b/c they have a Met degree and have completed X number of research hours it has gone to his/her head a bit, may even sound condescending at times

I think I know exactly who your talking about....As far as 99L goes. I think it has a good chance of developing.