Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

[Weatherfreak14]

your right skysummit, i think all it needs is for it to take its time, i think hes listening to us, and hes trying to rush himself in organziation

[fox13weather]

Nice link SouthFloridawx. NHC is noticing the absence of shear. You can look at the basic IR tonight and clearly see that even though convection is not extensive there is little sign of shear. This will be a slow process but I think the NHC is correct with their outlook.

[PTrackerLA]

It does appear to have some sort of circulation associated with the blob of convection but I'm reluctant to read into it too much since we went through the same thing last night then *poof*. This system obviously still has fight in it and I do think something will eventually come of it.

[la wave]

The very dry air seems to be retreating somwhat from 99l. Things could get interesting if this tread continues.

[jasons2k]

I agree wholeheartedly jschlitz. However, the assertiveness involved, needs to be curtailed. No fingers need pointed. You, myself and a whole host of others just didn't fall off the tomato truck in Immokalee. Now, back to posting about 99L. TheShrimper.

Man, back when I was a kid growing-up in Riverview and Valrico, the place to get tomatoes was Ruskin. And Valrico was out in the sticks. The only thing out there was Lithia Springs (back then the water was crystal clear too). My how times have changed since....and I'm not even that old (33).

[HURAKAN]

To sum up the discussion so far.

[Berwick Bay]

Man, this swingin' back and forth (as far as chances for development) is really giving me a headache. And that goes for amateurs and pro mets. Now Normandy might not appreciate this, (cause I'm actually agreeing with him), but his take on this system has been about the best. He's trying to look at the larger picture (not what happens from minute to minute or frame to frame). He's comparing the overall development of the storm from DAY to DAY (I did the same earlier today in a conversation with Alan from UK). The NHC has consistently now over a period of days talked about chances for development. They didn't jump off the bandwagon because of a tough six hour period or so. The storm has model support for future development, conditions ahead of the storm are seen as more favorable, climatologically this is much different that systems of 2 to three weeks ago in the same area. You have to look at the big picture. I've thought since last night that the odds were in favor of development, I see nothing to change that opinion. And I think it might be best for all of us to closely look at those usually conservative NHC advisories that continue to talk about improved conditions and possible development in a couple of days.

[rjgator]

I would hardly say that pro mets claiming their superiority, etc., runs "rampant" on this board. For the most part, the pro mets here are incredibly patient, understanding, and forthcoming with knowledge that most amateurs simply do not have. Sometimes painstakingly so. And for the most part, a professional, degreed meteorologist will understand intricacies of the weather at a level of detail that most of us cannot touch. They do indeed deserve a level of professional respect and most of the time when a regular "Joe Blow" tries to discredit a pro met he's just crying sour grapes.

Yes, there may be one or two people I can think of that just b/c they have a Met degree and have completed X number of research hours it has gone to his/her head a bit, may even sound condescending at times, but that is quite the minority. For every pro met like that there may be 20 amateurs that do this - without the credentials to even back it up, so I think singling-out the pro mets is a bit unfair.

Almost all of the pro mets here dedicate countless hours - in their spare time, no less - posting invaluable information for us to consume, and FOR FREE. I'm a degreed professional in my field and believe me, I don't sit-up late at night dispensing free information on message boards. What our pro mets contribute is completely selfless and I believe almost every member on this board is incredibly grateful for this.

Believe me, it's much better here than some of the other forums out there. If you want to see what some real pompous mets have to say, then look elsewhere, but for the most part you won't find that on S2K. Let's keep things in perspective, please. Our pro mets are first rate and S2K wouldn't be what it is without them. My $.02.

Nice post. As I said earlier, the facts are people are interested in the tropics, they are paying attention, and they are trying to learn the science. This board is a great place to discuss and learn about a fascinating science. I scan it often but rarely post. I posted earlier today because the -removed- had gotten to the point that it was laughable. To each his own. Concerning 99L. I have seen TD's development in worse environments than this. Slow, uneven development (this system is dead, this looks like TD4 already) is likely and if it can hang around until it gets into a more climatologically favored area for development then we may have something.

Well said.

[skysummit]

I know it doesn't mean much right now, but anyone see the 00z SHIPS that has this as a 97mph hurricane in 5 days?

[Brent]

There's a little something different tonight than last night. Last night at this time, the convection was rapidly intensifying....almost sucking up all the moisture it could all at once. It was almost certain that impressive blob would not last through the day today. However, tonight, convection seems to slowly be increasing near what looks to be a circulation at one layer or another. This may be better for it to develop.....SLOWLY. It's not an "over kill" like it was last night.

You could be right... maybe blowing up was not good for it. I'm defintely keeping a close eye on it.

and yes SHIPS has been close to that for several runs.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I know it doesn't mean much right now, but anyone see the 00z SHIPS that has this as a 97mph hurricane in 5 days?

No.


Don't see it at the Ohio State Twister site yet...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

:yesno:

To sum up the discussion so far.

Bickery Dickery Dock, The Poster's Fuss 'Round The Clock!!

Just a wee jest to lighten the mood!

[swimaster20]

FWIW, our best local met around here in Lafayette (Rob Perillo for those from around here), said tonight on the 10:00 News that he has a good feeling 99L will develop down the road, and he's pretty good when it comes to the tropics.

[tolakram]

I see what looks to be some banding starting around the possible center of circulation. I'm saying this not because I know what's going to happen next, if anything, but because I didn't see anything like this last night.

I don't think it's a coincidence or an illusion that everything is curving around the apparent center.

Now the question is can the convection be maintained or will it be blown away again.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Hmm 99L looks fascinating...NHC says slow development possible....so
I will keep a close eye.

[skysummit]

I know it doesn't mean much right now, but anyone see the 00z SHIPS that has this as a 97mph hurricane in 5 days?

No.


Don't see it at the Ohio State Twister site yet...

It's there...scroll down under the EP storm.
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07080100

[crazycajuncane]

Very interesting reading through the pages tonight. Haven't seen so many pot shots and sarcastic posts in a good while. I hope everyone can go on after tonight and remember what we all come here for... information.

Whether we share it or give it... we should all respect each others opinions.

This is not the Storm2k that I am used to.

--- Now maybe we can roll on ---

Local mets are saying different things. Looks like it will continue on a westward track, but should be monitored. It's way to early to write this storm off (unless you really want to).

I have a feeling this year will be a bit different than last year. I was quick to write off ernesto and storms that blew up in this same area last year, but conditions are different!

August 1st folks... it's time to buckle up!

[skysummit]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0108 UTC WED AUG 1 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070801 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070801 0000 070801 1200 070802 0000 070802 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 53.3W 12.6N 56.9W 13.7N 61.1W 14.9N 66.0W
BAMD 11.3N 53.3W 12.2N 56.1W 13.0N 59.1W 13.6N 62.3W
BAMM 11.3N 53.3W 12.1N 56.1W 12.9N 59.2W 13.5N 62.5W
LBAR 11.3N 53.3W 11.9N 56.2W 12.6N 59.3W 13.2N 62.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070803 0000 070804 0000 070805 0000 070806 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 71.1W 19.0N 80.9W 21.0N 88.3W 23.1N 93.4W
BAMD 14.0N 65.5W 14.6N 72.5W 15.1N 79.9W 15.0N 86.8W
BAMM 14.0N 66.1W 15.1N 73.6W 15.9N 81.2W 16.1N 88.3W
LBAR 13.7N 66.1W 14.6N 72.9W 13.8N 78.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 55KTS 68KTS 78KTS 84KTS
DSHP 55KTS 68KTS 78KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 53.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 50.5W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 49.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Very interesting reading through the pages tonight. Haven't seen so many pot shots and sarcastic posts in a good while. I hope everyone can go on after tonight and remember what we all come here for... information.

Whether we share it or give it... we should all respect each others opinions.

This is not the Storm2k that I am used to.

--- Now maybe we can roll on ---

Local mets are saying different things. Looks like it will continue on a westward track, but should be monitored. It's way to early to write this storm off (unless you really want to).

I have a feeling this year will be a bit different than last year. I was quick to write off ernesto and storms that blew up in this same area last year, but conditions are different!

August 1st folks... it's time to buckle up!

I agree respect of others is always important.
And also...yes it's going to be a wild ride IMO...

[gatorcane]

Hi folks, I am still bullish on this system. What we are seeing tonight is no surprise to me: 6 hours from now should look even better with the diurnal minimum in full swing. Low shear, warmer waters and more moisture. It has everything going for it.

I see Dean in a couple of days as it makes a long journey across the Caribbean.....

still time to buckle up. I think this one will be a good one to track for us.