Invest 99L,Near Windwards,Thread #4

[Beam]

Thread 1: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96179&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

Thread 2: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96512

Thread 3: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96550&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[Stormcenter]

Wow 4 threads for a tropical wave!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yes...99L is getting better structure to my amateur
eyes...closer and closer to a depression...and with
low shear...moisture...and high oceanic heat content...
nearly ideal environmental conditions...I think some slow
development is likely...and it will need to be watched
closely as it develops...Just look at that heat content
in the Caribbean....tropics are heating up bigtime
folks...2007 season here it comes....

[GeneratorPower]

Gatorcane, why are you thinking it's better organized. I'm not sure what to look for.

[Cyclone1]

You guys realize we've been discussing this wave for nearly half a month? Wow.

[boca]

You guys realize we've been discussing this wave for nearly half a month? Wow.

Wow I thought this popped up on Sunday the 29th of July.

[Cyclone1]

You guys realize we've been discussing this wave for nearly half a month? Wow.

Wow I thought this popped up on Sunday the 29th of July.

Look at thread 1, July 18 was the first post. The storm wasn't there, but we were discussing the models that called for this storm. Almost a half a month ago.

[PTrackerLA]

The IR Channel 2 floater looks interesting tonight. There's definately some sort of circulation associated with a compact and persistant ball of convection. I don't want to jump the gun as I kind of ate crow after last night but it seems to be becoming better organized. Wonder if RECON will still investigate if it keeps this up until morning?

[MGC]

Well darn, I just spent 5 minutes replying why I thought 99L would not develope any time soon and hit submit and it said the topic was locked..

99L looks less orgainzed tonight than it did yesterday morning and evening. Sure there is still evidence of some mid-level spin but convection is far less numerous tonight. 99L is having a difficult time with dry air. Dry air kills off a TC almost as fast as strong shear. 99L has been gulping its share of dry air since it came to our attention the other day. Since the dry air should be an issue for 99L the next few days, I doubt a TD developes any time soon. Perhaps once 99L gets toward the western Caribbean contitions might be more favorable for development. Of course ole MGC has been wrong my share of time, but thats the way I see it tonight. Lets keep the debate going, it is fun to share opinions......MGC

[Cyclone1]

Actually, 99 seems to be in a nice envelope of moist air right now.

[RL3AO]

It is schedule for 1ET so it will need some crazy convection at around 9 am with it still showing stregthening.

[boca]

Ok I thought it was when 99L was classified not when the models were picking up on it. I got it now.

[Berwick Bay]

Its beginning to get into the vicinity of the islands now. Would be nice to hear from some of the posters out there over the next day or two.

[RL3AO]

I think Recon is 50/50 for tomorrow. Because some of these islands are American territory, USAF is more likely to go out since it is closer to the islands this all assuming it has some convection and a reason to think there is a closed circulation.

[Anthonyl]

Berwick I am closely watching the situation here in St.Lucia.

[MGC]

Recon will go tomorrow if there is any question of a low level circulation due to 99L close proximity to the islands......MGC

[Stormcenter]

You guys realize we've been discussing this wave for nearly half a month? Wow.

Wow I thought this popped up on Sunday the 29th of July.

Look at thread 1, July 18 was the first post. The storm wasn't there, but we were discussing the models that called for this storm. Almost a half a month ago.

It is not officially anything but a tropical wave right now and not a TS.

[Cyclone1]

It is not officially anything but a tropical wave right now and not a TS.

I didn't say it was a tropical storm.

[Berwick Bay]

Anthony said
Berwick I am closely watching the situation here in St.Lucia
__________________________________________________
Good to hear from you Anthony. If memory serves me correct, (according to the models) the system should be entering the Carrib at about a lat of 13?? I think. Wouldn't St. Lucia be maybe just north of there?? If thats the case, then you guys could be pretty close to the center (might be a depression at that time). Could give us a pretty good indication of whats going on with pressure and wind direction.

[Stormcenter]

It is not officially anything but a tropical wave right now and not a TS.

I didn't say it was a tropical storm.

I'm sorry but your post (see below) did refer to it as a "storm".
What else would you be referring to if not a tropical storm?

Look at thread 1, July 18 was the first post. The storm wasn't there, but we were discussing the models that called for this storm. Almost a half a month ago.