Strong tropical wave off western Africa

[MiamiensisWx]

It'll be like all the others, looks great for about 12 hrs, then dies.

Do you care to elaborate your reasoning? SAL is marginal; it is not a significant factor against this wave's future development. Additionally, convection is increasing as the wave axis moves offshore. That is a positive sign for persistence. Note the well-defined mid-level rotation. Sfc convergence is good. It's located in a band of mid-level moisture. Finally, August has started. The pattern is more favorable for MDR development. I would place the waves under scrutiny; we are approaching the Cape Verde season.

[MiamiensisWx]

If a system cannot develop, I will state the facts. This wave has a better future for development. I would appreciate constructive criticism and more in-depth analyses - this thread should receive more attention...

Discussion is welcome!

[RL3AO]

Usually these waves don't just develop like that. People are focused on 99L which is the more immediate threat. If 99L dissipates the African waves will once again get more attention.

[Beam]

#1 bears watching, #2 is impressive but many of them are right off the coast, only to fizzle later. We'll see on that one. #3 is still over land, so I'm not really paying it a lot of mind right now.

It's too early to say "This will be our next invest!" or "This is gonna poof!"

[MiamiensisWx]

Look at the decent convective increase in each frame. It is early, but this continuous trend is a positive sign for this wave.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yea baby I wanna see a big strong fish out of this one...
I mean like a hurricane major but stays away from land and curves out
to sea!!!!
YEAA BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(Insanity goes to my head...)

[Normandy]

^I don't know if I am as hopeful for development as you are (in the short term) about the wave just coming off the coast of Africa. Remember, about a week ago a wave that looked even better than this came off the coast and really did nothing but feed itself into the ITCZ. Granted this might not happen this time, but it is a plausible outcome.

[MiamiensisWx]

^I don't know if I am as hopeful for development as you are (in the short term) about the wave just coming off the coast of Africa. Remember, about a week ago a wave that looked even better than this came off the coast and really did nothing but feed itself into the ITCZ. Granted this might not happen this time, but it is a plausible outcome.

That wave never exhibited a persistent convective pulse as it moved away from Africa. This system is a different story. Additionally, it looks better than 99L - its structure is more organized. SAL is lower, too. If convection persists, a LLC may form. Unlike the previous systems, we have entered August. This wave may slowly detatch from the ITCZ - look at the current satellite trends. The structural persistence will offer some tantalizing clues during tomorrow's passage. I'm typically conservative, but I think we have our first "real" contender.

[MiamiensisWx]

I hope Phil (philnyc), Jim (wxmann_91), or WJS3 will offer their thoughts...

[Normandy]

^Well, Id say it really looks no different structure wise than the wave last week....both were very potent and both at impressibe MLC's....the one last week sent Dakar's pressure down to 1008....thats pretty impressive.

First and foremost, its envelop is huge, and that fact alone suggests it won't be a fast developer as it may take time to consolidate. Another thing you have to consider is the wave developing ahead of it, but distance should be enough that perhaps both can develop. I dunno, I like your enthusiasm but I don't know if I share it. Just because its August 1st doesn't make today any different than yesterday. I would hedge my bets on this to develop very slowly, if it does at all. Many a wave has come of the African coast only to lose itself to the ITCZ under similar conditions.


Ill go ahead and give you a prediction so one of us can eat crow
- The wave will develop into an invest in 4 days.

[Scorpion]

It is a true waste of time to track waves as they exit Africa... 95% of them don't turn into anything, and usually the best looking ones are destroyed by the SAL.

[fci]

I don't question your analysis one bit.

The only question I have is whether the calendar simply flipping to "August" signals an instant change in dynamics or if it is a more gradual thing.

Good job Daniel!

[MiamiensisWx]

It is a true waste of time to track waves as they exit Africa... 95% of them don't turn into anything, and usually the best looking ones are destroyed by the SAL.

You make a good point. Additionally, I agree with Normandy - August 1 isn't a magic date. I do not fall into that trap. I should note one important distinction. The previous waves collapsed because of the SAL and easterly shear. This wave is located under a moist mid-level environment and a weaker 500 mbar ridge. These facts equate to lower shear and reduced SAL. Moisture has propagated over the Sahara, too. Latest satellite estimates indicate the wave's circulation is located below 13N - the low latitude is a favorable sign if a sfc low can detatch from the ITCZ. I'm expressing my personal views. This wave will receive better support via the environment.

[MiamiensisWx]

Phil made a great post in the 99L thread. He confirmed my suspicions. He notes that the mid-level environment is more critical for TC development. This great graphic strongly supports my analysis - SAL is not a significant hindrance to this system. We have good mid-level moisture sources, and the dynamics favor instability (cold upper air environment and convection). The significant mid-level rotation and convective consolidation offers some intriguing clues. I would appreciate Phil's thoughts in this thread - anyone can offer some analyses! I would love to gain some insight.

[MiamiensisWx]

The relative humidity is substantially moist - look at this graphic from Phil's analysis. The main issue for the wave depends upon an upper low near 30N and 50W. That low is slowly lifting out - deepening easterlies are progged to spread westward per some model guidance. That would create a better environment ahead of this wave. The weaker Azores ridge reduces the stable air mass threat, too. I think most factors will permit some organization - let's observe the trends over the next 24 hours...

[Normandy]

Miami,
I do agree that the mid-level moisture and sal wont really be a problem, my big thing with you being bullish on the system has to with moreso with its large envelope. Its gonna take a while for that large wave to consolidate. Which is why I give it 4 days before invest status.

[MiamiensisWx]

Another thing to note: low-level steering currents interact with the upper low's influence near 40W to 50W. Evidently, the low is slowly filling and moving northward. The weak trough will pull out of the area - this trend will leave low-level easterlies through the central and western Atlantic. It would reduce shear. Look at this loop. The current wave off Africa is located in a nice position - its current forward motion would bring the system to a conducive environment. It would remain ahead of any future SAL surge (pending another wave ushering dry air into the MDR. It would reach the "goal" while it remains in a "sweet spot".

[Meso]

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 20W FROM 8N TO 20N HAS EMERGED OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST. THE 1200 UTC 31 JULY SOUNDING FROM DAKAR
INDICATED THE WAVE WAS VERY NEAR THE SITE AT THAT TIME AND
FORWARD EXTRAPOLATION COMBINED WITH WELL DEFINED LOW AND MID
LEVEL TURNING IN SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE WAVE IS NOW
ALONG 20W. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER IN THE E SEMICIRCLE THOUGH THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AND THE ITCZ
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 24W.

[MiamiensisWx]

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 20W FROM 8N TO 20N HAS EMERGED OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST. THE 1200 UTC 31 JULY SOUNDING FROM DAKAR
INDICATED THE WAVE WAS VERY NEAR THE SITE AT THAT TIME AND
FORWARD EXTRAPOLATION COMBINED WITH WELL DEFINED LOW AND MID
LEVEL TURNING IN SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE WAVE IS NOW
ALONG 20W. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER IN THE E SEMICIRCLE THOUGH THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AND THE ITCZ
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 24W.

There's the smoking gun. Any sfc low likely would form in that vicinity. My previous posts mentioned that possibility - the evidence backs my opinion.

[Meso]

Wonder which is the one the CMC is doing this with


Ukmet (usually quite a conservative model)


Nogaps

Gfs also shows a low for a while

They are all developing something.. Not sure if it's different waves,or if they are picking up the waves moving differently,but something to keep an eye on