Typhoon Usagi in Western Pacific

[Chacor]

Up to 120 kts from NRL.



TY 0705 (USAGI)
Issued at 00:00 UTC, 1 August 2007
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0705 USAGI (0705)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 25.1N 137.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM EAST 160NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 020000UTC 29.3N 133.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 030000UTC 33.6N 131.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 040000UTC 37.7N 135.1E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT

[HURAKAN]

Looking excellent.

[CrazyC83]

Could this be a super typhoon soon?

[RL3AO]

Is it 135 or 140 kts for Super Typhoon strength?

[Chacor]

Is it 135 or 140 kts for Super Typhoon strength?

130.

[wxmann_91]

With the warm cloud tops, I'd be very surprised if this becomes a STY (JTWC standards). I actually think it's only about 105 kt 1-min right now, but that's just me.

[Chacor]

Clear eye.

[Chacor]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the relevant JMA and JTWC products.

The JMA 12Z advisory is out. I'm bored, so I decided to put it into words (like a TPC/NHC public advisory! ). Remember, winds are in 10-min avg.

BULLETIN
TYPHOON USAGI ADVISORY
9 PM JST WED AUG 1 2007

...TYPHOON USAGI MAINTAINING STRENGTH AS IT NEARS KYUSHU...

AT 9 PM JST... 1200Z... THE CENTRE OF TYPHOON USAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 135.1 EAST... OR ABOUT 375 MILES... 675 KM
SOUTHEAST OF MIYAZAKI JAPAN AND ABOUT 625 MILES... 1010 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF TOKYO JAPAN.

USAGI IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH... 28 KM/H...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... USAGI SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT DAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH... 165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. USAGI IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST
OF KYUSHU.

30-KT WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 MILES... 445 KM FROM THE CENTRE...
50-KT WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES... 130 KM FROM THE CENTRE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 HPA... 27.90 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 9 PM JST POSITION... 27.5 N...135.1 E. MOVEMENT TOWARD
NORTH-NORTHWEST... NEAR 28 KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
165 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 HPA.

[senorpepr]

Haha... nice Chacor. You know... if a person could create some sort of script that would convert RSMC advisories into TPC-style advisories... that would be... interesting...


:scratches head:

[Typhoon Hunter]

Haha nice one Chacor.

Btw the outer bands of Usagi are starting to show up on radar now. Here's the link:

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/

[Chacor]

JTWC 15Z is out, 115 kt.

WTPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 05W (USAGI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 27.5N 134.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5N 134.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 30.1N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 32.6N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 35.3N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 37.8N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 41.0N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 42.5N 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 28.2N 134.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 05W (USAGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011200Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z,
020900Z AND 021500Z.

WDPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W WARNING NR17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (USAGI) HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY AT 115 KTS,
WITH DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS COMPENSATING FOR DECREASING OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED EAST
OF JAPAN. ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WAS OVER THE KANTO PLAIN YESTERDAY HAS PULLED OUT.
HOWEVER, SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS AT 500 MB SHOWS A BREAK REMAINS BETWEEN
THE STR EAST OF JAPAN AND A SECOND RIDGE WEST OF OKINAWA.
B. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (USAGI) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 115 KTS
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 6.0/6.5 BY PGTW AND 6.0/6.0 BY RJTD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING FOR TY 05W HAS NOT CHANGED.
B. TY 05W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE STR TO ITS EAST, MAKING LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU NEAR TAU 24. THE
AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE COLLECTIVELY SHIFTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY
BACK TO THE EAST OVER THE PAST TWO WARNING CYCLES, AS THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE STR WILL NOT BUILD AS FAR WEST AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE STR MAY BE HINDERED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA. THE STORM WILL MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST AS THE A LOW-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST NEAR TAIWAN BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 24 IN EASTERN
KYUSHU, RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 36. TY 05W IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE STR AXIS NEAR TAU 36 AND BEGIN ACCELERATING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR 40N. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH
EGRR REPRESENTING THE OUTLIER INITIATING THE POLEWARD TURN EARLY AND
MOVING THE SYSTEM FAST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF
THE DYNAMIC AIDS THROUGH TAU 48.
C. ONCE TY 05W MOVES NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS, THE STORM WILL
ENCOUNTER THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED AT 40N BETWEEN
TAUS 72 AND 96. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE NEAR TAU 96
EAST OF HOKKAIDO. THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 48 UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

[HURAKAN]

Eyewall fully opened to the south.

[WindRunner]

Hmm, no one mentioned that it peaked at about noon EDT today? Well, it did . . . briefly having a ring of -70C cloud tops before such clouds slowly disappeared from the storm over the next few hours . . . and now it's crap. Cat 2 landfall is probably the best we're going to get now . . . maybe around 85kts or 90kts 1-min.

[El Nino]

I have a friend living in Tokyo. According to her, they will just receive some rain, but not too much wind.

[Category 5]

It looks like some dry air getting the west side?

[HurricaneRobert]

Hmm, no one mentioned that it peaked at about noon EDT today? Well, it did . . . briefly having a ring of -70C cloud tops before such clouds slowly disappeared from the storm over the next few hours . . . and now it's crap. Cat 2 landfall is probably the best we're going to get now . . . maybe around 85kts or 90kts 1-min.

That's... good?

[WindRunner]

Hmm, no one mentioned that it peaked at about noon EDT today? Well, it did . . . briefly having a ring of -70C cloud tops before such clouds slowly disappeared from the storm over the next few hours . . . and now it's crap. Cat 2 landfall is probably the best we're going to get now . . . maybe around 85kts or 90kts 1-min.

That's... good?

Yeah, for Japan. This could have been quite bad, as the last storm of cat 3+ strength to hit Japan was over a decade ago. Now it appears it will be weaker, which means that, though it will still have a profound effect and cause significant flooding and a decent number of deaths, it will be nowhere near as bad as it might have been.

[Chacor]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the relevant JMA and JTWC products.

This information is from 0200Z. Remember, winds are in 10-min avg.

BULLETIN
TYPHOON USAGI ADVISORY
11 AM JST THU AUG 2 2007

...TYPHOON USAGI WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT NEARS KYUSHU...

AT 11 AM JST... 0200Z... THE CENTRE OF TYPHOON USAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 132.6 EAST... OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 140 KM
SOUTHEAST OF MIYAZAKI JAPAN... AND ABOUT 115 MILES... 185 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF NOBEOKA JAPAN.

USAGI IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH... 30 KM/H...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
USAGI IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COAST OF KYUSHU BY TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH... 160 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. USAGI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES
THE COAST OF KYUSHU... WITH FURTHER WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL.

30-KT WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 MILES... 445 KM FROM THE CENTRE...
50-KT WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES... 190 KM FROM THE CENTRE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 HPA... 28.05 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM JST POSITION... 31.1 N...132.6 E. MOVEMENT TOWARD
NORTH-NORTHWEST... NEAR 30 KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
160 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 HPA.

[HurricaneBill]

Yeah, for Japan. This could have been quite bad, as the last storm of cat 3+ strength to hit Japan was over a decade ago. Now it appears it will be weaker, which means that, though it will still have a profound effect and cause significant flooding and a decent number of deaths, it will be nowhere near as bad as it might have been.

Actually, the last Category 3 or higher typhoon to make landfall on mainland Japan was Typhoon Ma-On in 2004. Ma-On had 1-min sustained winds of 105 KT. However, this was according to the JTWC. JMA had Ma-On at 10-min sustained winds of 80KT. Which would equate to a upper-end Category 2.

Overall, the last typhoon to make landfall on Japan (including the islands) as a Category 3 or higher was Typhoon Shanshan in 2006. The JTWC had Shanshan making landfall as a Category 4 with 1-min sustained winds of 125KT. Amazingly, JMA was in agreement with JTWC, having 10-min sustained winds of 110KT. It is very rare that both the JTWC and JMA will have similar intensities for such a strong storm.

[Coredesat]

Eye is just off the coast: