Invest 99L,Near Windwards,Thread #4

[fox13weather]

where was the recon supposed to be taking off from? If it was from Biloxi and there are no obs... that is a dead giveaway. If it's from St Croix, then take off should be around noon

If they are taking off from Biloxi then they would have departed awhile ago. I would think any invests in this part of the world would have to originate from the islands and not the mainland.

[storms in NC]

well Maybe it will give me a day before any real action happens. Surgery is In the morning be back home Friday. I'll just miss No it is going this way No itis going this way I don't see it going that way. LOL

Deb

[rockyman]

Could the rumored sub-tropical development in the Gulf later this week along the old frontal trough create enough weakness in the ridge to allow further Northward component once to Western Carib?

not sure if this was cause and effect, but check out Cindy and Dennis from 2005

[caribepr]

Dunno Derek...call Schooner Bay Marketplace on St. Croix...they do lunches for the hunters if they are there and they will know

[DrewFL]

The crew has been in St. Croix. They started flying out on Monday afternoon and yesterday.

[fci]

Where are all the "it's dead posts"...."stick a fork in it"...."next"? Come on, I really want to know.

Not to worry.... they are always lurking out there!

[windstorm99]

I think there flying out of St Croix and the flight should take off later this afternoon from what i understand.

[SouthFloridawx]

Does everyone remember Ernesto track last year cutting thru Eastern Cuba then hitting Florida around Key Largo. Since the Bermuda high is put on hold and trough coming into Florida forecasted by Tampa NWS from the ENE will that create a weakness to pull 99L if it develops northward towards Florida?

As of right now, looking at the 500mb from GFS... I would say that a track to the west then, across the Yuck and into Mexico would probably be prudent. Not sure what upper level features, or disturbances may break down the ridge, but it does look like a case for a westward moving system.

Well, i do have confidence in the more westward track, isnt this almost the same thing that ernesto was supposed to do (a westward track)? but then things change

Well the Models initialize it Moving @ 15KTS.

We Currently have a trough moving out of the East Coast, the ridge West of the system is currently broke down a bit, but it is not broken to the North of it.
This 500mb ridge is progged to move westward with our little friend, and my best guess at this time is a continual westward moving system.
At least for the next 72 Hours.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_072l.gif

[Ivanhater]

Latest image...

[MiamiensisWx]

Well, I see a definite weak rotation. Unlike the previous attempts, convection is increasing during the morning hours. Additionally, the upper-air environment looks more favorable once the system enters the Caribbean Sea. Shear is low, and the stable air mass has been gradually destabilizing. If convection maintains itself for another hour, I think it is a sign. The current parameters indicate that development should not occur before it enters the Caribbean, but the game will start once it clears the Windward Islands.

CIMSS shows low-level easterlies - this indicates the presences of a low-level ridge and a weak anticyclone. Some data indicates the western Atlantic trough should lift out - this system's future path depends upon two things:

1) The rate of development;

2) The pace of the trough as it pulls away from the Gulf of Mexico

Current shortwave shows the trough's rapid exit from the area. You can see the ridge "build" westward. Look at the large anticyclone over the western Caribbean and GOM. That should provide a good environment. Additionally, the GFS has been supporting this scenario in recent runs. Other models show a similar setup, too.

I think we have finally reached a critical point - IMO, this system will eventually develop to our next tropical cyclone. I think persistence payed off for this system - the NHC made a good call.

I'll offer more analyses...

[SouthFloridawx]

107
NOUS42 KNHC 011500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 01 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-070

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 02/1600Z
B. AFXXX 02DDA INVEST
C. 02/1400Z
D. 14.0N 65.5W
E. 02/1500Z TO 02/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 03/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: THIS MISSION ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED FOR 02/1200Z
HAS BEEN SLIPPED TO 02/1600Z.

[Chacor]

Based on yesterday's POD Derek crew leaves at 1530Z.

[SouthFloridawx]

102
TCCA21 KNHC 011432
STDECA

SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED AUG 01 2006


SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...CARIBBEAN WAVE

MAX RAINFALL
DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST
----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------
01/1215 UTC 11.7N 56.2W 270/12 3.6 IN 5.4 IN


LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...

DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER
------------- --------------- ---------------
0 TO 1 DEGREE 0.0 TO 1.3 IN 0.6 TO 4.9 IN
1 TO 2 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.1 IN 0.1 TO 5.4 IN
2 TO 3 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.1 IN 0.0 TO 0.3 IN
3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.0 IN 0.0 TO 0.0 IN


...LEGEND...

SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...NAME OR NUMBER ASSIGNED TO SYSTEM
(E.G. TROPICAL STORM ALPHA, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 01, SURFACE TROUGH)

DATE/TIME... DAY OF MONTH AND TIME IN UNIVERSAL TIME
COORDINATES (UTC) IN A DY/HRMN FORMAT

LOCATION... ESTIMATED CENTER OF SYSTEM OR ADVISORY
POSITION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TENTHS
OF DEGREES OF LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE

MOTION... ESTIMATED DIRECTION AND SPEED OF SYSTEM
IN DEGREES AND KNOTS

MEAN MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE 24-HOUR MEAN MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF
RAINFALL FOR THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED
ON FOUR SATELLITE IMAGES SIX HOURS APART

LAST MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL FOR
THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGE

RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION... THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WITHIN FOUR
DEGREES (240 NM) LEFT AND RIGHT OF THE
SYSTEM CENTER IN ONE DEGREE (60NM)
INCREMENTS...LOOKING DOWNSTREAM
(1 IN = 25.4 MM)

NELSON

$$

[x-y-no]

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 311530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT TUE 31 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2007
         TCPOD NUMBER.....07-069

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
      FLIGHT ONE                 FLIGHT TWO
      A. 01/1800Z                A. 02/1200Z
      B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST      B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
      C. 01/1530Z                C. 02/1000Z
      D. 13.0N 57.0W             D. 13.5N 61.5W
      E. 01/1700Z TO 01/2200Z    E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1600Z
      F. SFC TO 10,000 FT        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

   2. SUCCEEDING DAY DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES.


[Windsurfer_NYC]

Looks like Recon is a Go for today! (ie, no cancellation in the newest POD)

[Ivanhater]

Looks like a go

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow! This system looks much better this morning than when I last looked at it yesterday evening!

[Ivanhater]

wow! This system looks much better this morning than when I last looked at it yesterday evening!

Yep..many of us were suprised this morning

[tolakram]

I know this rule doesn't work 100% of the time, but in my observations, with no scientific background, I've been able to identify a developing system by the arc of the clouds around it. As soon as you start to see curvature that appears to arc around the center the system is starting to develop.

I noticed these curves or bands just after convection started firing around sunset yesterday.

I'd love to know the science behind what's happening and why it's apparent before the good convection really gets going.

[Fego]

Interesting. If you look at the second day itinerary it say "cyclone". For today it say "invest"
ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 01/1800Z A. 02/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE C. 01/1530Z C. 02/1000Z
D. 13.0N 57.0W D. 13.5N 61.5W
E. 01/1700Z TO 01/2200Z E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT