Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

[Stormcenter]

This is a copy and paste of a post I put in on the EE Board at sr. It's basically a recap of the most current models I can get (excluding the ECMWF which I haven't looked at yet). The 12Z NAM continues to keep the LA/MS option (and if you check out the 850mb Virtual Temperature, you'll get a pretty good idea on what it's up to). It basically rotates the moisture across the Mississippi Coast and wraps it across SE LA (possible training if the scenario is right). Then it moves the system WNWish as high pressure builds in and the high over Texas now retrogrades. Some discount the NAM/ETA model, but it was effective last week with the SE Texas/SW Louisiana rainfall when none of the globals were clued in. Therefore, with its recent success*, I'm not going to completely discount it. (*One of the pro mets on here was disagreeing with looking to a model that was the proverbial blind squirrel. Well with recent success of that model, this isn't cherry picking some solution from 2003 or whatever).

CMC Closes off a low off the LA/MS Coast and moves it back inland over both (lots of rain for LA/MS/AL/FL)

GFDL (side note from Invest 99L which it takes across Mexico into the EPAC) Closes the low off south of Mobile Bay. Bulk of the rainfall offshore and into the Big Bend area of Florida (east of the system).

GFS06 - Forms it south of LA/MS/AL and keeps it around for a few days. Keeps bulk of the rain offshore.

Navy NOGAPS - Closes off the low in Plaquemines Parish/adjacent coastal waters and moves back inland near AL/FL border. Bulk of rainfall from Boothville over to Panama City.

UKMET06 - South of Mobile Bay, stationary through the run (short run)

NAM12Z - Bulk of rainfall over LA/MS. The NAM basically rotates the rainfall across the MS Coast into South LA and moves the system sort of westward bringing possible training bands in from the east across SE LA.

Steve

Excellent analysis...thank you!

[Cyclone1]

Notice what the first one does with 99L.

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml)

[SouthFloridawx]

Not sure if this belongs here...

107
NOUS42 KNHC 011500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 01 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-070

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS


4. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 02/1730Z
D. 29.0N 88.0W
E. 02/1745Z TO 02/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[jasons2k]

Thanks for posting those Steve. Between this and 99 looks like a busy few days ahead.

[bubbamills]

Agree the written material by Steve is extremely well thought.

[HURAKAN]

The NHC is already ahead of schedule, I think!!! Fortunately this would be a short fly!!!

[Ivanhater]

[SouthFloridawx]

Let's see if we can keep the convection firing out there, for something to form at the surface...

[HURAKAN]

So, at best, we're looking at a Bertha, 2002, Beryl, 1994,-like scenario?

[Derek Ortt]

we could very well see some slight development out of this feature. Maybe a Bertha 2002 at the most though

[Steve]

>>So, at best, we're looking at a Bertha, 2002, Beryl, 1994,-like scenario?

I was thinking Bertha-type system as well. But this one may have more rainfall with it. One of those lows that closes off at or near the coastline and just moves out slowly. Probably won't be rain in the 10-15" range that you see with depressions originating farther south, still could be some flooding around in low lying areas and near streams and lakes.

To me, this kind of system is the dry run for late August through September. It's a good time to check your standard hurricane links and your provisions to make sure you've got what you need in the event a more serious threat arises. This doesn't look to be any big deal, but people are going to get wet.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SQUALLS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND NOVA SCOTIA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORMATION INTO A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN OLD FRONTAL
ZONE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[ronjon]

If it develops, looks like a low-to-moderate tropical storm with plenty of heavy rainfall. Looking at the models, the area south of Mobile is the most likely location for development although the center of heaviest convection and lightest shear is located SE of there, more toward the east-central GOM. Where it goes, no where real fast. A slow drift to the north or northwest perhaps. There are some real differences between the GFS and Euro right now on the timing and strength of the rebuilding Atlantic Ridge. The Euro builds in a strong ridge which would push this system to the west and the GFS reintroduces troughing over the SE early next week which would slowly drag this thing northeast.

[Ivanhater]

So where is the most likely place for a low to develop? South of New Orleans, Pensacola, or further east...Im going to have to catch myself up with this system..Ive been focused on 99L

[gatorcane]

things can get going in the GOM quick so we need to monitor this situation closely.

[N2FSU]

Nice radar loop showing the wide rotation of convection in the Gulf:
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rad ... imate=true

[Sabanic]

What are the water temps presently in N GOM? I would guess at least mid 80's.

[ronjon]

From that radar loop, I see an elongated cc rotation south of Ft Walton Beach. It appears to be drifting slowly south or S-SE.

[MWatkins]

The thing that stands out to me is they are scheduling 6 hourly fixes into this system. This indicates that they are taking development pretty seriously.

The good news is that the oceanic heat content in the area is relatively low (compared to other places in the Gulf)...so if it does sit and spin it won't have an unlimited source of energy.

http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/da ... t.zoom.gif

MW

[gatorcane]

I can't believe how gunhoe they are on this system...that convection just blossomed late last night....

it must mean we could see rapid development. Hopefully it gets over land quick.