Invest 99L,Near Windwards,Thread #4

[Cyclone1]

Wow, that's gotta be the longest TWO so far this year, 3 paragraphs.

[abajan]

Btw anybody from Barbados here?

Yep, that would be me.

We had some squally conditions here at my house a few minutes ago but we haven't had any of the 58 mph gusts and heavy showers that were recorded at Grantley Adams International Airport (and we're just about 3 miles or so west of there).

I'll keep you posted when I can.


Cheers.

[Weatherfreak14]

99L is gaining convection, that is the first for this time of day.

[Cyclone1]

That's a sign of organization, gaining convection this time of day. So I hear.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow, I just woke up expecting to see nothing and find that it actually has convection over it. If it can keep convection over it once it gets into the carribbean instead of pulsating on and off, then it'll have a chance at becoming Dean.

[HURAKAN]

IN JUST 21 HOURS:

[tolakram]

99L is not on the verge of TD status, no more than it was 24-36 hours or so ago. I would not be surprised if recon is cancelled. The convection that fired earlier is racing west away from the system and will begin to die off. This is still a long way away from TC status. I give it 20% of development to get to Dean with 99L.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

I don't see what you're seeing?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-rgb.html

Looks to me like the center is just to the SE of the main convection with convection continuing to re-fire.

[HURAKAN]

Wow, I just woke up expecting to see nothing and find that it actually has convection over it. If it can keep convection over it once it gets into the carribbean instead of pulsating on and off, then it'll have a chance at becoming Dean.

Yesterday I kept saying "lets wait for diurnal maximum before making any comments of "dead" or "poof"" and now that we see 99L is why.

[MiamiensisWx]

Look at the well-defined spin. I see a possible low-level circulation near 13N and 57W. It is clearly visible under closer scrutiny. You can see the movement of the low-level clouds. The spin is weak, but it's there - I see a definite low and sfc circulation (LLC). Check it out.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Steve H.]

I dunno, it still looks kinda ratty (99L). The low level easterlies may have an effect on the development of this thing, but it looks like it will develop, albeit slowly, with a swift WNW-West track. I'm a bit more concerned about the area in the GOM, and think it could get cooking in short order. More waiting

[HURAKAN]

First time that the Atlantic GTWO shows three areas of interest.

[x-y-no]

99L is not on the verge of TD status, no more than it was 24-36 hours or so ago. I would not be surprised if recon is cancelled. The convection that fired earlier is racing west away from the system and will begin to die off. This is still a long way away from TC status. I give it 20% of development to get to Dean with 99L.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

I don't see what you're seeing?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-rgb.html

Looks to me like the center is just to the SE of the main convection with convection continuing to re-fire.

Yeah ... pretty hard to say exactly what's the "center" yet, but I'd say you're not far off ...

And I don't see the convection "racing away" either. It's ahead, that's for sure. but in terms of chances of development, it seems to me that's usually better than having the "center" ahead of the convection, so long as they're moving at approximately the same rate.

[JonathanBelles]

looks a lot better this morning! Chance of development has gone up.

[x-y-no]

Look at the well-defined spin. I see a possible low-level circulation near 13N and 57W. It is clearly visible under closer scrutiny. You can see the movement of the low-level clouds. The spin is weak, but it's there - I see a definite low and sfc circulation (LLC). Check it out.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I see what you're talking about, but how close to the surface it is I'm not sure ...

[Ivanhater]

Look at the well-defined spin. I see a possible low-level circulation near 13N and 57W. It is clearly visible under closer scrutiny. You can see the movement of the low-level clouds. The spin is weak, but it's there - I see a definite low and sfc circulation (LLC). Check it out.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I see what you're talking about, but how close to the surface it is I'm not sure ...

There is evident inflow taking place on the east side of the convection...so something is trying to take place in the lower levels

[Fego]

Btw anybody from Barbados here?

Yep, that would be me.

We had some squally conditions here at my house a few minutes ago but we haven't had any of the 58 mph gusts and heavy showers that were recorded at Grantley Adams International Airport (and we're just about 3 miles or so west of there).

I'll keep you posted when I can.


Cheers.

Well, hope this system doesn't cause damages , etc.

[jrod]

I see rotation but no signs of a LLC, it is just a wave. So far the pressure hasn't dropped at Barbados, but the blob hasn't made it there. I don't have any links for a radar over there and that would be one tool I would like to use to judge if 99L is becoming organized. Like I posted a few hours ago, I expect the convection to fade away this evening.

[bvigal]

Latest obs from Barbados
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

heavy showers with an east wind at 35mph gusting to 58mph? That doesn't sound too pleasant..

Where can I find a report from Barbados of 35mph with gusts to 58mph? I'm seeing this 11:30:
Wind from the ENE (070 degrees) at 24 MPH (21 KT)
Visibility 2 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain showers
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.88 in. Hg (1012 hPa)

11:00am
11 AM (15) Aug 01 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) ENE 24 light rain showers


Maybe this will fizzle, but they issued a formation alert, so it garnered enough points to qualify, for some reason, for now at least. I'm sure they will fly it today.

By the way, this isn't a wave, as some have said, the wave moved ahead of this low and passed through here (65W) early this morning. It was clearly visible on satellite, with a forward tilt. I can post a pic if anyone wants to see it.

[Fego]

I see rotation but no signs of a LLC, it is just a wave. So far the pressure hasn't dropped at Barbados, but the blob hasn't made it there. I don't have any links for a radar over there and that would be one tool I would like to use to judge if 99L is becoming organized. Like I posted a few hours ago, I expect the convection to fade away this evening.

I was told that convection increase during night hours.

[vacanechaser]

I see rotation but no signs of a LLC, it is just a wave. So far the pressure hasn't dropped at Barbados, but the blob hasn't made it there. I don't have any links for a radar over there and that would be one tool I would like to use to judge if 99L is becoming organized. Like I posted a few hours ago, I expect the convection to fade away this evening.

i see a stronger mid level circ... but there is a turning of the clouds at lower level.... not as good as the mid, but there is something going on at the surface...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team