Invest 99L,Near Windwards,Thread #4

[Ivanhater]

I see rotation but no signs of a LLC, it is just a wave. So far the pressure hasn't dropped at Barbados, but the blob hasn't made it there. I don't have any links for a radar over there and that would be one tool I would like to use to judge if 99L is becoming organized. Like I posted a few hours ago, I expect the convection to fade away this evening.

i see a stronger mid level circ... but there is a turning of the clouds at lower level.... not as good as the mid, but there is something going on at the surface...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I agree...When I first saw the inflow on the east side this morning..I knew something was occuring at the surface

[jrod]

The recon flight will tell us whats going on.

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree with Jesse. I see a definite low-level cloud rotation. Here's the evidence. The possible LLC is broad, but the evidence supports a weak sfc low and low-level circulation.

[vaffie]

Latest obs from Barbados
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

heavy showers with an east wind at 35mph gusting to 58mph? That doesn't sound too pleasant..

Where can I find a report from Barbados of 35mph with gusts to 58mph? I'm seeing this 11:30:

look at 11:12 am
http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... story.html

[HURAKAN]

The recon flight will tell us whats going on.

That's exactly why the RECON is going.

Looks at this example, in 2002 TD #7 didn't look very good, convectionwise, but it had a well-defined LLC. Lets see what they find.

TD7_07_sept_2002_1640

1 24.60 -48.00 09/07/15Z 30 1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2 24.70 -48.60 09/07/21Z 30 1015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[MGC]

Our little tumbleweed keeps blowin with the wind. Systems like this drive me crazy, looks great one minute bad the next. Well, since convection has increased once again, I'm pretty sure recon will go out considering how close 99L is to the islands. I would be surprised if they find a TD though...MGC

[Brent]

WOW... looks impressive. Can't wait to see what recon finds.

[vacanechaser]

I agree with Jesse. I see a definite low-level cloud rotation. Here's the evidence. The possible LLC is broad, but the evidence supports a weak sfc low and low-level circulation.

well, looking at the image, i did not see it in there, where you suggest... i looked on the out side of the deeper convection... the tail end of your right arrow is one area where you could see the surface clouds stream in... the next area that steamed in is from the southwest is closer to you box of low level location... it is not the bright white cloud areas to look at.... certainly something going on down there... i dont see a west component yet...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[DESTRUCTION5]

WOW... looks impressive. Can't wait to see what recon finds.

thats not it Brent..LOL

[jojo]

Anyone think he looks a bit pac-man ish?

[Derek Ortt]

any surface center would be near 12.5N and 59W. There is nothing back at 57W. That's the mistake we all made yesterday

[Cyclone1]

Holy! That looks just like Pacman! Haha.

[MiamiensisWx]

well, looking at the image, i did not see it in there, where you suggest... i looked on the out side of the deeper convection... the tail end of your right arrow is one area where you could see the surface clouds stream in... the next area that steamed in is from the southwest is closer to you box of low level location... it is not the bright white cloud areas to look at.... certainly something going on down there... i dont see a west component yet...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Jesse, the red circle (not square) indicates the location of the possible LLC. Note the low-level "spiral" around the circle (indicated by arrows). Additionally, the bands are situated anticyclonically - this indicates a building upper high. That could provide good diffluence - upper-air support would enhance organization. Relative humidity is good, too.

Derek, my coordinates are a rough estimate. Personally, I think an LLC would be positioned within the vicinity of the circle in my graphic.

-Miami

[Derek Ortt]

inner-core data is not supposed to be included in the model analysis, so the recon data may not make that much of a difference in the model initialization

[vaffie]

any surface center would be near 12.5N and 59W. There is nothing back at 57W. That's the mistake we all made yesterday

If it was at 57W, Barbados would be reporting a north wind, but it's not it's reporting an ENE wind, indicating that the low-level center is south and east of Barbados, like Derek is saying.

[Blown Away]

NHC says 99L is moving W between 11-12N. The convection looks like it's moving NW. Is there something pulling the convection NW from the center. Didn't they say 99L was moving NW not to long ago?

[philnyc]

well, looking at the image, i did not see it in there, where you suggest... i looked on the out side of the deeper convection... the tail end of your right arrow is one area where you could see the surface clouds stream in... the next area that steamed in is from the southwest is closer to you box of low level location... it is not the bright white cloud areas to look at.... certainly something going on down there... i dont see a west component yet...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Jesse, the red circle (not square) indicates the location of the possible LLC. Note the low-level "spiral" around the circle (indicated by arrows). Additionally, the bands are situated anticyclonically - this indicates a building upper high. That could provide good diffluence - upper-air support would enhance organization. Relative humidity is good, too.

Derek, my coordinates are a rough estimate. Personally, I think an LLC would be positioned within the vicinity of the circle in my graphic.

-Miami

you're talking about the cirrus bands, right? They mean good outflow developing up at 200-300mb.

[chadtm80]

Recon in the San Juan area now... Getting there

[MiamiensisWx]

you're talking about the cirrus bands, right? They mean good outflow developing up at 200-300mb.

You're correct, Phil. I think the satellite data reasonably supports my position. There is a well-defined anticyclone establishing over this system - I think some people have not given their needed attention to these increasingly favorable conditions. I do not think it is a TD, and I think it won't develop until it enters the eastern Caribbean Sea. Simultaneously, I think some people are overestimating the current (NOT previous) challenges to this system. It has overcome many obstacles, and conditions are better than yesterday.

By the way, I respect the opinions of others. Disagreement and debate are wonderful things. I'm sharing my views, too - I think this system has a shot.

[miamicanes177]

Recon in the San Juan area now... Getting there

someone should create a recon thread to post the observations