Invest 99L,Near Windwards,Thread #4

[storms in NC]

Just looking at the Visloop and you can see that it could possible ride along the west side of the islands WNW to NW But not a Do West.
If it does come to a TD or more JIMO
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

Just my 2 cents

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just looking at the Visloop and you can see that it could possible ride along the west side of the islands WNW to NW But not a Do West.
If it does come to a TD or more JIMO
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

Just my 2 cents

I see a W or slightly WNW motion in that loop.

[dwg71]

the movement of the convection can be decieving. I see W or slightly N or Due West.

[vacanechaser]

you're talking about the cirrus bands, right? They mean good outflow developing up at 200-300mb.

You're correct, Phil. I think the satellite data reasonably supports my position. There is a well-defined anticyclone establishing over this system - I think some people have not given their needed attention to these increasingly favorable conditions. I do not think it is a TD, and I think it won't develop until it enters the eastern Caribbean Sea. Simultaneously, I think some people are overestimating the current (NOT previous) challenges to this system. It has overcome many obstacles, and conditions are better than yesterday.

By the way, I respect the opinions of others. Disagreement and debate are wonderful things. I'm sharing my views, too - I think this system has a shot.

ohhh, dont think i disagreed with you... did not make that clear... i was pointing out the area i looked at for the lower cloud pattern and the possiblity of a low level circ... just wanted to clear that up.... i think your close to it...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[philnyc]

Nice conjecture about the anticyclone overhead, MiamiensisWx. Here's the ARL plot from the GFS Global 12Z run:



Anticyclone overhead. That's gotta be helping this system.

Sorry I didn't have time to draw in the long/lat. That's Barbados on the middle left, and Trinidad/Tobago bottom left. 60 degrees runs right near them, and lines are 5 degrees apart.

[bvigal]

NRL: Best I can tell, when TCFA was issued, something went awry in the ATCF, and 99L was associated with the alert but dropped as an active system. The worst of it is, satellite imagery stopped being collected at 12:45z. Maybe they can queue those back up, once they discover the problem. Perhaps someone in the U.S. could call them and let them know...?

[Ivanhater]

convection continues to increase all around...south side blowing up even more and moving toward the "center"

[Brent]

To me this is the best it has looked the entire time. Unlike the other night it's not just an intense blob, this actually looks a lot more like a developing tropical cyclone.

...and this is also occurring in the middle of the day! Yesterday at this time it looked like nothing.

[skysummit]

To me this is the best it has looked the entire time. Unlike the other night it's not just an intense blob, this actually looks a lot more like a developing tropical cyclone.

I agree Brent. Not only is convection increasing near the center, it's also increasing to the north, south, east and west.

[windstorm99]

Its future track will be determined by its intensity in my opinion.

[Ivanhater]

Its future track will be determined by its intensity in my opinion.

and where the center sets up as well

[windstorm99]

Its future track will be determined by its intensity in my opinion.

and where the center sets up as well

No doupt.

[Extremeweatherguy]

There are hundreds of things that could affect the future track, but for now let's just let it develop first before worrying too much about the future outcome. We might end up having plenty of time to do that later..

[Ivanhater]

There are hundreds of things that could affect the future track, but for now let's just let it develop first before worrying too much about the future outcome. We might end up having plenty of time to do that later..

Ya..Im just happy we actually have something to track now...that was a long drought there for a few weeks!

[MWatkins]

Just took a look at the 12Z SHIPS guidance. FWIW it was run on the BAMS track...which I honestly don't understand at all.

Translation: I think SHIPS is too aggressive because it is making an intensity forecast based on where a cyclone will be based only on a track derived from a shallow layer. If it is steered by the shallow layer it will never get that strong...and if it is stong it wont be steered by a shallow layer.

If recon does find a center and they close this off...look for changes to SHIPS guidance...as they will run it on the forecast track instead of the shallow layer BAM model.

MW

[philnyc]

Just took a look at the 12Z SHIPS guidance. FWIW it was run on the BAMS track...which I honestly don't understand at all.

Translation: I think SHIPS is too aggressive because it is making an intensity forecast based on where a cyclone will be based only on a track derived from a shallow layer. If it is steered by the shallow layer it will never get that strong...and if it is stong it wont be steered by a shallow layer.

If recon does find a center and they close this off...look for changes to SHIPS guidance...as they will run it on the forecast track instead of the shallow layer BAM model.

MW

Thanks for that info!

[Brent]

There are hundreds of things that could affect the future track, but for now let's just let it develop first before worrying too much about the future outcome. We might end up having plenty of time to do that later..

Ya..Im just happy we actually have something to track now...that was a long drought there for a few weeks!

and right on time with it being August 1st.

[skysummit]

Almost too much to keep up with now. LOL...I'm not used to it.

[GeneratorPower]

SSD appears to be having loading issues with their sat loops. Anyone else notice this?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Almost too much to keep up with now. LOL...I'm not used to it.

yeah, it sure got active in a hurry!