Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

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tolakram
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#181 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:22 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

To my untrained eye it looks to be developing alarmingly fast. I saw nothing but a mass of clouds this morning and now I can start to see what looks like banding starting to form.
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Derek Ortt

Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#182 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:23 pm

I said a spin near 28N
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caneman

Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#183 Postby caneman » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:24 pm

We're getting clocked here since 5 this morning on and off with lightning. Lotta rain since last night too. Any chance this pushes further EAst? Stronger system more apt to go East or developed further South? Either way is currently affecting a wide area.
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#184 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:24 pm

...
Last edited by SouthFloridawx on Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#185 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:26 pm

caneman wrote:We're getting clocked here since 5 this morning on and off with lightning. Lotta rain since last night too. Any chance this pushes further EAst? Stronger system more apt to go East or developed further South? Either way is currently affecting a wide area.


caneman, depends where the low pressure system develops. We on the west coast of FL should see some decent rain regardless over the next 24 hrs as that batch of convection in the SE GOM rotates northward witha developing system.
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caneman

Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#186 Postby caneman » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:29 pm

ronjon wrote:
caneman wrote:We're getting clocked here since 5 this morning on and off with lightning. Lotta rain since last night too. Any chance this pushes further EAst? Stronger system more apt to go East or developed further South? Either way is currently affecting a wide area.


caneman, depends where the low pressure system develops. We on the west coast of FL should see some decent rain regardless over the next 24 hrs as that batch of convection in the SE GOM rotates northward witha developing system.


Ronjon,

Are ya'll seeing any of this up there? We've been getting it pretty good already.
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#187 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:30 pm

If this thing starts winding up expects your winds to increase out of the South.....
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#188 Postby drezee » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:31 pm

01/17 42003 26.0 -85.9 26.4 25.2 250 29 G 35 250 39 1012.8 0.0 29.7 1.5 4 42003
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#189 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:33 pm

caneman wrote:
ronjon wrote:
caneman wrote:We're getting clocked here since 5 this morning on and off with lightning. Lotta rain since last night too. Any chance this pushes further EAst? Stronger system more apt to go East or developed further South? Either way is currently affecting a wide area.


caneman, depends where the low pressure system develops. We on the west coast of FL should see some decent rain regardless over the next 24 hrs as that batch of convection in the SE GOM rotates northward witha developing system.


Ronjon,

Are ya'll seeing any of this up there? We've been getting it pretty good already.



Had our first lightning bolt about 20 mins ago with some moderate rain. Its stopped for now but I'd expect another heavy round of convection today. TIA and Brooksville airports recorded over 3+ inches of rain yesterday.
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#190 Postby jasons2k » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:34 pm

1.5 already? Interesting
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#191 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:35 pm

Image
Last edited by SouthFloridawx on Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:42 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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caneman

Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#192 Postby caneman » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:36 pm

Look at around 27N and 85. That is where it looks like an LLC is developing. YOu send the bending in and around towards that area.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#193 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:36 pm

caneman,

It looks like that won't be the main area. Look due SSW of the Chandeleur Islands off the tip of Boothville in that looped RCB infrared image provided after you posted. That appears to be where energy is blowing up and developing. If so, and if it's an eventual Northward movement, this looks like an issue for the Mississippi Coast, Alabama and NW Florida.

Again, not making any calls, just saying what I'm seeing.

Steve
Last edited by Steve on Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#194 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:37 pm

by the way if the GOM system develops you would think it would leave a weakness over the GOM which may things interesting with 99L's track should it develop....think about that
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#195 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:37 pm

drezee wrote:01/17 42003 26.0 -85.9 26.4 25.2 250 29 G 35 250 39 1012.8 0.0 29.7 1.5 4 42003


What product is this from?
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#196 Postby skysummit » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:39 pm

gatorcane wrote:by the way if the GOM system develops you would think it would leave a weakness over the GOM which may things interesting with 99L's track should it develop....think about that


I agree. Now everything may be out the window. This could very well bring 99L a little further north than expected.
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#197 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:39 pm

Steve wrote:caneman,

It looks like that won't be the main area. Look due SSW of the Chandeleur Islands off the tip of Boothville in that looped visible image provided after you posted. That appears to be where energy is blowing up and developing. If so, and if it's an eventual Northward movement, this looks like an issue for the Mississippi Coast, Alabama and NW Florida.

Again, not making any calls, just saying what I'm seeing.

Steve


So far, thats what the models are suggesting...interesting couple of days coming up...
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#198 Postby Sabanic » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:42 pm

Yes very interesting. The tropics at their best in August. From nothing to BOOM!!!
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Re:

#199 Postby HollynLA » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:43 pm

jschlitz wrote:1.5 already? Interesting



And this is not an invest yet? What up with that or am I missing something?
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#200 Postby drezee » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:46 pm

Windsurfer_NYC wrote:
drezee wrote:01/17 42003 26.0 -85.9 26.4 25.2 250 29 G 35 250 39 1012.8 0.0 29.7 1.5 4 42003


What product is this from?


buoy 42003

gust to 39 knots in the GOM
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