Invest 99L,Near Windwards,Thread #4

[MiamiensisWx]

It is eagerly generating consistent convection in the middle of the day - look at this loop. A new "burst" is firing in each frame - the trend is occurring during the diurnal minimum, too. That sign indicates some decent improvement in the overall environment. I wouldn't be surprised if the low-level spin becomes better organized, too. I think my original posts speak for themselves - this system likely will eventually develop to a Caribbean TC. The days of sporadic nighttime convection are over - this is a consistent organizational trend. It is gradually sustaining convection throughout the entire day and night. Let's watch this system closely...

By the way, I agree with Mike Watkins. He made a great point - this system is shallow. I think the path depends upon the deepening rate and structure of the system. I would anticipate slow development, but I think we will eventually witness our next TC in the Caribbean. Cyclogenesis could start within 36 hours - it is a gradual process. A sfc low should consolidate over the next 24 hours, especially because of the sufficient environment and current trends.

[vaffie]

Thanks Miamiensis--nice discussion.
For what it's worth, Barbados's wind has shifted from ENE to due East in the past hour, indicating that the center is now almost due south of it.

[RL3AO]

Hi guys. And I though it was dead? Looking pretty good for the time. Tonight could be interesting.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Does weatherunderground usually post invests under their tropical section? Because currently they have a section for "invest 99L" and they say it has winds of 30mph...

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/

They also have a "TD" symbol for it on their map. This is very odd.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... ml#a_topad

[RL3AO]

Does weatherunderground usually post invests under their tropical section? Because currently they have a section for "invest 99L" and they say it has winds of 30mph...

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/

They also have a "TD" symbol for it on their map. This is very odd.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... ml#a_topad

They had 98L up on there before it became a depression but they didn't have 99L. Now they have 99L up. Maybe they have an insider?

[chadtm80]

They saw that we put invest on our tropical page so they followed suit

[Brent]

They saw that we put invest on our tropical page so they followed suit

Yeah, I don't think it is proves anything, since all invests are TROPICAL DEPRESSION invests, that's probably why it has a TD symbol.

Now if NRL puts up NONAME, then there might be something...

[SouthFloridawx]

They saw that we put invest on our tropical page so they followed suit

Can someone unlock the Recon Discussion thread, so it's easier to post recon data in the Recon Thread?

[sevenleft]

Does weatherunderground usually post invests under their tropical section? Because currently they have a section for "invest 99L" and they say it has winds of 30mph...

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/

They also have a "TD" symbol for it on their map. This is very odd.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... ml#a_topad

There is nothing odd about it.

[tolakram]

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

Pressure dropping, mean anything?

[vaffie]

1005.8 mb pressure reported by recon.

[SouthFloridawx]

559
WHXX04 KWBC 011721
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 1

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.6 56.6 280./14.9
6 12.3 57.7 302./13.0
12 11.6 60.2 254./25.3
18 12.5 62.4 292./23.3
24 12.7 65.2 274./27.5
30 12.5 67.8 265./25.2
36 11.7 69.0 239./14.5

STORM DISSIPATED AT 36 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[Ivanhater]

Models are worthless right now...they just cant get a handle on this system until it develops...

[gatorcane]

by the way if the GOM system develops you would think it would leave a weakness over the GOM which may things interesting with 99L's track should it develop....think about that

[canegrl04]

1005.8 mb pressure reported by recon.

A TD? Between this thing,and the one in the GOM, we may have a tag team of Dean and Erin

[vaffie]

First indications of a west wind now. "WSW to SW at 20 knots" at the surface to be precise.

40:00Z 11.77N 58.28W 977.3 mb
(~ 28.86 inHg) 286 meters
(~ 938 feet) 1009.8 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 236° at 5 knots
(From between the SW and WSW at ~ 5.8 mph) 22.5°C
(~ 72.5°F) 22.5°C
(~ 72.5°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 20 knots*
(~ 23.0 mph*) 15 mm/hr*
(~ 0.59 in/hr*)


Due west (265 degrees) wind at 25 knots

17:43:30Z 11.65N 58.13W 977.1 mb
(~ 28.85 inHg) 289 meters
(~ 948 feet) 1010.0 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 265° at 5 knots
(From the W at ~ 5.8 mph) 22.0°C
(~ 71.6°F) 22.0°C
(~ 71.6°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 16 mm/hr
(~ 0.63 in/hr)

[HURAKAN]

Observed at: Grantley Adams, BR
Elevation: 184 ft / 56 m
81 °F / 27 °C
Light Showers Rain
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: 75 °F / 24 °C
Wind: 22 mph / 35 km/h / 9.8 m/s from the East
Pressure: 29.86 in / 1011 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 86 °F / 30 °C
Visibility: 3.7 miles / 6.0 kilometers
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 800 ft / 243 m
Mostly Cloudy 1000 ft / 304 m
(Above Ground Level)

[Brent]

If this thing is not a TD now, then it should be before long...

[windstorm99]

[punkyg]

It looks better, then earlier.