Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

[Steve]

FWIW, 12Z UKMet doesn't do anything with this at all.

Steve

[ronjon]

We have E-SE winds at buoy 42039 (28.5N-86W) and strong W-SW winds at buoy 42003 (26N-85.5W).

[storms in NC]

With it going East it wouldn't have the time to do much than a TD or TS a most?

[MGC]

Looks like the spin is near 27N 86W. This is far enough out in the gulf for this to spin up into a significant TC since it is not forecast to move inland till Friday. We shall see....MGC

[Steve]

>>With it going East it wouldn't would have the time to do much than a TD or TS a most?

Only way it would go east is if a primary low or companion low developed south of +/-26 and east of say 87 or so. There is a blowup down there, but we don't know if that's transient or if it's part of a developing system. At the same time, one of the clues to the future can also be seen on the RGB IR Loop at the top of Page 10. Look at the Cirrus Clouds moving west into interior Georgia and Alabama. High Pressure building in to the north?

Steve

[Ivanhater]

Looks like the spin is near 27N 86W. This is far enough out in the gulf for this to spin up into a significant TC since it is not forecast to move inland till Friday. We shall see....MGC

Looks like our area will have to watch this closely today and tomorrow...

[Brent]

>>With it going East it wouldn't would have the time to do much than a TD or TS a most?

Only way it would go east is if a primary low or companion low developed south of 65 and east of say 87 or so. There is a blowup down there, but we don't know if that's transient or if it's part of a developing system. At the same time, one of the clues to the future can also be seen on the RGB IR Loop at the top of Page 10. Look at the Cirrus Clouds moving west into interior Georgia and Alabama. High Pressure building in to the north?

Steve

Yep... hot and dry here. Hotter than we ever were in July.

[HURAKAN]

Remember that Barry had very little time as a tropical cyclone and its winds reached 60 mph. That's a moderate-to-strong tropical storm. I juts want another name to scratch out of the list, nothing major!!! The northern Gulf Coast doesn't need it, I gues!!!

[Sabanic]

>>With it going East it wouldn't would have the time to do much than a TD or TS a most?


Steve

Yep... hot and dry here. Hotter than we ever were in July.

Hot and HUMID, with a likely late afternoon round of heavy thunderstorms again

[killah]

It already looks like it might have some outflow to the system and the fact it is sucking in moisture from the north could make the clouds wrap around the low ever faster. Looking at the time line of the sat image it look it got its act together around 11:30 to 1:00pm, Aug 1st.

[SIMWMBA]

A quick review of the NBDC bouys in the eastern GoM showed that all have (slightly) rising barometer readings.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

Nevertheless NWS MOB mentioned some sort of possible developement in the Coastal Marine Forecast this am:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/Forecasts ... .KMOB.html

1030 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND
STALL OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT. AN
AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT ON THURSDAY AND DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.

[smw1981]

Derek, I have a very important question..

You always seem so smart on this board, and being that I LOVE the weather (and s2k), will you marry me?

Oh yeah, by the way, I have been a member of s2k since 2004, but for some reason, I was logged off and when I tried to post, i couldnt remember my screen name, so I had to make a new one!

[seaswing]

Derek, I have a very important question..

You always seem so smart on this board, and being that I LOVE the weather (and s2k), will you marry me?

Oh yeah, by the way, I have been a member of s2k since 2004, but for some reason, I was logged off and when I tried to post, i couldnt remember my screen name, so I had to make a new one!

huh?

[lrak]

What if the front continues South. Then what, will the possible low still move N East or back to NNW towards LA/SE TX?

[lrak]

Derek, I have a very important question..

You always seem so smart on this board, and being that I LOVE the weather (and s2k), will you marry me?

Oh yeah, by the way, I have been a member of s2k since 2004, but for some reason, I was logged off and when I tried to post, i couldnt remember my screen name, so I had to make a new one!

huh?

He's mine and I got lots of guns and depends. See you in a few hours.

[PerfectStorm]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

great comprehensive RADAR of E GOM

[seaswing]

Derek, I have a very important question..

You always seem so smart on this board, and being that I LOVE the weather (and s2k), will you marry me?

Oh yeah, by the way, I have been a member of s2k since 2004, but for some reason, I was logged off and when I tried to post, i couldnt remember my screen name, so I had to make a new one!

huh?

He's mine and I got lots of guns and depends. See you in a few hours.

[smw1981]

haha..i have never even seen him and the only thing I remember about him is that he is/was in grad school for met. (I think during Katrina, but might have been Ivan). And that is it! He just seems sooo smart about something I love!

Now back to topic..I am thinking that nothing too bad could come out of our little GOM friend if it is supposed to come ashore in 2 days. (JMO) However, if 99 hits where Mr. GOM low hits, it could mean trouble. Birmingham's VIPIR had this low coming in around Mobile Bay on Friday...

[Stormcenter]

It's close to land per NHC....DISCUSSION...

I believe it is a little further south but who am I to second guess.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR
30N88W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA ALONG 29N84W 29N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 82W-88W.
FURTHER W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
OF LOUISIANA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 91W-94W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SW TEXAS NEAR
30N101W. NELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO W
OF 90W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN GULF
OF MEXICO PRODUCING NWLY FLOW E OF 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WHERE SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION N OF 24N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Dean4Storms]

Noting the change in direction in which the TStorm that just past through here in Miramar Bch just east of Destin was moving. The movement is to the west which is almost 180 from yesterdays movement and would be expected if we have a developing low to our south.

Had gusts to near 30mph, lightning and rain, just a typical TStorm.