99L Recon Discussion Thread

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Chacor
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#21 Postby Chacor » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:38 pm

182130 1048N 05734W 9770 00228 0027 +237 +229 150004 005 000 010 00
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Re:

#22 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:39 pm

Chacor wrote:1002.7mbar!


:eek: :eek: :eek:

This thing will go to Dean in a hurry when the convection blows up again.
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#23 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:40 pm

1003 mb and nothing has been found higher than one 25kt gust?
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Re: 99L Recon Discussion Thread

#24 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:40 pm

you are right, Dean may just be on the way....

:eek:
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Re: Re:

#25 Postby skysummit » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:41 pm

Brent wrote:
Chacor wrote:1002.7mbar!


:eek: :eek: :eek:

This thing will go to Dean in a hurry when the convection blows up again.



Whoa...wasn't expecting that. Yes, when convection increases again tonight, we may have Dean by 5am tomorrow.
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#26 Postby Chacor » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:42 pm

Latest release shows a levelling out... all extrapolated sfc pressure entries are around 1010.3mb.
Last edited by Chacor on Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#27 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:42 pm

RL3AO wrote:1003 mb and nothing has been found higher than one 25kt gust?


It is a delayed reaction...first the pressure goes down then the winds increase after...
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#28 Postby Incident_MET » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:44 pm

Now that the plane is getting data back model initializations and future runs should show the system better vs "being in the noise"
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#29 Postby storms in NC » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:44 pm

Only TS have to have 30 MPH winds. I think I am right
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Re: 99L Recon Discussion Thread

#30 Postby Nimbus » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:46 pm

If they are finding surface low pressure readings below 1005 it must be over a small area.
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Re:

#31 Postby skysummit » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:47 pm

storms in NC wrote:Only TS have to have 30 MPH winds. I think I am right


At least 39mph.
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Re:

#32 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:47 pm

storms in NC wrote:Only TS have to have 30 MPH winds. I think I am right


40 mph or 35kts to be a TS.
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Re:

#33 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:47 pm

Chacor wrote:182130 1048N 05734W 9770 00228 0027 +237 +229 150004 005 000 010 00



Interesting...
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Re: 99L Recon Discussion Thread

#34 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:49 pm

Plane is reporting calm surface winds over a large area near 11N/58W with pressures 1010mb. Don't think there was a 1002.7mb pressure observed. Wasn't reported in regular recon reports, anyway. Lowest I've seen is 1009mb near Barbados. No westerly surface winds reported yet, either. Looks like a moderate wave to me. But forecasting what the NHC will do is harder than forecasting hurricanes by far. ;-)
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Re: 99L Recon Discussion Thread

#35 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:50 pm

Guys...the pressure is starting to drop down there...the winds and convection should increase soon
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Re: 99L Recon Discussion Thread

#36 Postby Chacor » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:50 pm

wxman57 wrote:Plane is reporting calm surface winds over a large area near 11N/58W with pressures 1010mb. Don't think there was a 1002.7mb pressure observed. Wasn't reported in regular recon reports, anyway. Lowest I've seen is 1009mb near Barbados. No westerly surface winds reported yet, either. Looks like a moderate wave to me. But forecasting what the NHC will do is harder than forecasting hurricanes by far. ;-)


There was one W report... only one missing is NW I believe.
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#37 Postby Chacor » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:53 pm

Latest URNT15... sfc pressures remain in 1010 range.
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#38 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:53 pm

Now some NNE reports. That 1002.7 was Recon observed so it should be valid.

I'd say we have TD4 and it will initialize with 25kt winds and 1003mb pressure.
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Derek Ortt

Re: 99L Recon Discussion Thread

#39 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:55 pm

if this is called a TD, either some NW winds need to be found or the definition of a TD needs to be changed to include open waves
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#40 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:56 pm

This is not a TD IMO.
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