Invest 99L,Near Windwards,Thread #4

[TCmet]

I agree, I think we have TD#4.

Between this an the GOM

And who said "Season Cancel" a week ago?

You really want to know? I can give names if you wish LOL

I think this will be a TD at 5.

I agree that it will be a TD at 5pm. They might even issue a special update, especially since it's so close to land. Wait to see if recon sends a VORTEX message.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah the more I look at it, I am not convinced it is currently a TD (though the NHC might go ahead and upgrade it anyway). That being said though, I think this could easily become one if convection persists through the afternoon and into tonight...might even have a TS by tomorrow if this can keep intensifying.

[Brent]

I'm leaning towards it not being a TD right now either, but it's on the way.

[Chacor]

No TD just yet.

AL, 99, 2007080118, , BEST, 0, 121N, 584W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 125, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Models initialised as "DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070801 1800 UTC"

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a sharp wave with some disorganized convection to me. Not yet a depression...

[RL3AO]

Nope...not a depression.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

And NRL mantains it as invest 99L.

[alan1961]

Invest 99L back up on NRL

[storms in NC]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

And NRL mantains it as invest 99L.

Maybe by the Am it will be. it is not to far from one

[StormScanWx]

TCFA issued over at the NRL site.

[miamicanes177]

The bad news is that if this is not a depression it is quickly becoming one. Recon is still investigating however, and they might surprise the NHC with their findings. Even still, more missions are planned and something will need to change quickly in the environment or we'll have Dean by tomorrow.

[Brent]

Interesting that they don't show a straight west runner.

[NONAME]

The Image of 99L. on NRL show a new convection burst just east of Barbados

[Blown Away]

Can we say with high confidence at this point that what ever becomes of 99L, it will generally move W and not be a threat to FL.

[miamicanes177]

703
WHXX01 KWBC 011912
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1912 UTC WED AUG 1 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070801 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070801 1800 070802 0600 070802 1800 070803 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 58.4W 12.9N 62.8W 14.3N 67.6W 15.6N 72.7W
BAMD 12.1N 58.4W 12.7N 61.7W 13.4N 65.2W 14.0N 68.8W
BAMM 12.1N 58.4W 12.7N 62.0W 13.5N 65.9W 14.3N 69.9W
LBAR 12.1N 58.4W 12.6N 61.6W 13.2N 65.4W 13.9N 69.3W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070803 1800 070804 1800 070805 1800 070806 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 77.9W 19.0N 86.9W 20.6N 93.5W 22.7N 97.7W
BAMD 14.6N 72.6W 15.3N 80.6W 15.1N 88.0W 14.3N 94.7W
BAMM 15.2N 74.2W 16.4N 82.7W 17.0N 90.4W 17.0N 96.3W
LBAR 14.6N 73.3W 15.9N 80.6W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 51KTS 68KTS 81KTS 88KTS
DSHP 51KTS 68KTS 69KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 58.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 54.7W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 52.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[WmE]

That TCFA was issued a while ago! 5 hours or something.

[cycloneye]

703
WHXX01 KWBC 011912
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1912 UTC WED AUG 1 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070801 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070801 1800 070802 0600 070802 1800 070803 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 58.4W 12.9N 62.8W 14.3N 67.6W 15.6N 72.7W
BAMD 12.1N 58.4W 12.7N 61.7W 13.4N 65.2W 14.0N 68.8W
BAMM 12.1N 58.4W 12.7N 62.0W 13.5N 65.9W 14.3N 69.9W
LBAR 12.1N 58.4W 12.6N 61.6W 13.2N 65.4W 13.9N 69.3W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070803 1800 070804 1800 070805 1800 070806 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 77.9W 19.0N 86.9W 20.6N 93.5W 22.7N 97.7W
BAMD 14.6N 72.6W 15.3N 80.6W 15.1N 88.0W 14.3N 94.7W
BAMM 15.2N 74.2W 16.4N 82.7W 17.0N 90.4W 17.0N 96.3W
LBAR 14.6N 73.3W 15.9N 80.6W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 51KTS 68KTS 81KTS 88KTS
DSHP 51KTS 68KTS 69KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 58.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 54.7W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 52.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Wow,the intensity is up there with SHIP and DSHP.However until a well iniciation comes,the positions are not so good.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

It greatly helps the eyes if the Code tag is used for fixed-width products:

Code: Select all

703
WHXX01 KWBC 011912
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1912 UTC WED AUG 1 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070801 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070801  1800   070802  0600   070802  1800   070803  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.1N  58.4W   12.9N  62.8W   14.3N  67.6W   15.6N  72.7W
BAMD    12.1N  58.4W   12.7N  61.7W   13.4N  65.2W   14.0N  68.8W
BAMM    12.1N  58.4W   12.7N  62.0W   13.5N  65.9W   14.3N  69.9W
LBAR    12.1N  58.4W   12.6N  61.6W   13.2N  65.4W   13.9N  69.3W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          44KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          44KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070803  1800   070804  1800   070805  1800   070806  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.0N  77.9W   19.0N  86.9W   20.6N  93.5W   22.7N  97.7W
BAMD    14.6N  72.6W   15.3N  80.6W   15.1N  88.0W   14.3N  94.7W
BAMM    15.2N  74.2W   16.4N  82.7W   17.0N  90.4W   17.0N  96.3W
LBAR    14.6N  73.3W   15.9N  80.6W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        51KTS          68KTS          81KTS          88KTS
DSHP        51KTS          68KTS          69KTS          76KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.1N LONCUR =  58.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  11.5N LONM12 =  54.7W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =  11.2N LONM24 =  52.1W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


[El Nino]

88 kts at D5 !!!

[WmE]

Well SHIPS has been bullish with that every run now.