Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

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Derek Ortt

Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#221 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:47 pm

asking me to marry someone????????????? LOL

I began grad school in 2005 and should finish my M.S. very soon
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#222 Postby southerngale » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:55 pm

I've been gone since about 8:30 this morning and got home just a bit ago to this. Recon is going!? Wow.

Well, I've read a little and about to go read some more pages, but I have a question. I think I've seen it either implied or posted that it could move in just about all four directions. lol
If I understand it correctly, it's most likely to move primarily northward and do it fairly quickly, or no? But... if it sits for a while with weak steering currents, that high pressure might build in from the east. Not enough to send it west though, right?
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#223 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:56 pm

This just came up on the SSD site, we'll probably have 90L by the end of the night.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float3.html
Image
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#224 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:00 pm

Image

And here is the infared image from Floater.
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#225 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:02 pm

cycloneye wrote:Image

And here is the infared image from Floater.


That takes up quite a bit of the Gulf and it's all over very warm water. There's a very suspicious area as well.

:sick:

I think it's gradually organizing.
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#226 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:04 pm

Seems to be drifiting east somewhat, or are my eyes deceiving me?
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Re:

#227 Postby Cyclone1 » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:08 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Seems to be drifiting east somewhat, or are my eyes deceiving me?


I was just thinking that!
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#228 Postby jdray » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:10 pm

Jax NWS has nothing yet on this other than mention of the trough and a "spurious low" from the GFS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
141 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2007

...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTHWARD INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...

.SHORT TERM...MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED
IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...ROUGHLY FROM BROOKSVILLE TO TITUSVILLE.
NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR HAS RESULTED IN SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG EAST COAST SEABREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS...THE OVERALL
TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR LESS COVERAGE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND EAST OF US 301 WHERE SEABREEZE HAS
ALREADY PASSED. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING LOWER PWATS WITH
INCREASED MID LEVEL DRY AIR...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY INCREASED
RISK OF MICROBURSTS ACROSS INLAND ZONES THIS EVENING.

IT WILL BE A QUICKLY EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT AS MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH FORCED ASCENT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCREASING
OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH 00Z WHICH
ALLOWS IMPULSES TO ROTATE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF RIDGE NORTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA. THIS ACTS TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE CORE.
ALL THIS
POINTS TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
PRECIP SHIELD SURGING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR TOWARD
DAYBREAK. WITH EASTERLY FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE...MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...BUT UPPER ENERGY AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
WELL.

NO MATTER HOW YOU SLICE IT...THU LOOKS LIKE A WET DAY ACROSS THE
CWA WITH PWATS NEAR 2.50 INCHES AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING IN ON THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH 60 TO 80 POPS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE ONLY ISSUES WILL BE THE AREAL COVERAGE AS THERE IS A SOMEWHAT
NARROW ZONE OF THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS IN TANDEM AND WILL
THE DENSE OVERCAST LIMIT INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO CURB POPS. AT THIS
TIME...FEEL BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA WITH
IMPULSE THERE AND IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WITH A SEPARATE IMPULSE.
WILL GO GENERALLY WITH 70 POPS IN THESE AREAS AND TAPER SIGNIFICANTLY
TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES.

GFS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN LIFTING FRONT NORTHWARD ALONG WITH
BEST PRECIP CHANCES. WILL GENERALLY USE A BLEND WITHOUT A LOT TO
GO ON AT THIS POINT RESULTING IN LIKELY POPS FOR THE GA ZONES INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT BY SAT WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN AND UPPER IMPULSES REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH. WILL
CUT BACK POPS TO THE SCT CATEGORY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH GA
PORTION ONCE AGAIN FAVORED.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED FEATURES STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC RIDGE...BUT
NOT BEFORE GFS SHOWS SPURIOUS LOWS FORMING ALONG OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NOTHING DEFINITIVE TO LATCH ONTO AND WILL LARGELY KEEP
CURRENT EXTENDED IN TACT.
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#229 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:15 pm

So when is recon going in?

4. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 02/1730Z
D. 29.0N 88.0W
E. 02/1745Z TO 02/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 03/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 02EEA CYCLONE
C. 03/1030Z
D. 30.0N 88.0W
E. 03/1045Z TO 03/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
5. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#230 Postby Sabanic » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:15 pm

Mentioning it a bit here as of 11:45 CDT


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2007



LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY): FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS...THE NAM...GFS AND GEM HAVE ALL WANTED TO FORM UP A LOW
OVER THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST ON THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING IT GRADUALLY INLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. TODAY THE GFS SOLUTION IS MORE WIDELY ACCEPTED WITH A WEAK
LOW FORMING UP NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI...MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH ACROSS THE MOBILE BAY AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE 00Z NAM AND
GEM FORECASTS TAKING THE WEAK LOW FARTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.
WE KEEP OUR HIGHEST/LIKELY POPS GOING OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...IN THE AREA OF
GREATER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ODDS ARE...EITHER THE GFS OR THE GEM
WILL VERIFY IN THIS PATTERN...AND BOTH HAVE A LIKELY POP SCENARIO
PAINTED FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS IS ALL INLINE
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AS WELL. WE ALSO WENT A BIT
HIGHER WITH THE QPF VALUES OVER THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SEVERAL AREAS FORECAST TO HAVE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...VERY CLOSE TO THE
00-06Z HPC FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE
BASICALLY DE-AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND BUILD A RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE SAW
NO REASON TO DISCOUNT THE GFS/MEX FORECAST POPS THROUGH THE LATER
PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED. /05
Last edited by Sabanic on Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#231 Postby rockyman » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:15 pm

Note...Floater 3 (designated "invest") is centered due south of Apalachicola and west of Tampa...if the center forms way down south, it'll have a lot more time over water

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/vis.jpg
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#232 Postby caneman » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:18 pm

Sure looks to me like it is trying to form about 100 miles or so to my West. Weather has gone from lightning and significant rain fall to now a dead silence. Hmmm. When you've had systems form near your area before you just kinda of get the feel. Hard to explain.
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#233 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:20 pm

Looks like we have an MLC west of tampa...

Image
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#234 Postby secretforecaster » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:24 pm

And to think I have to attend a wedding in Diamondhead this weekend! :(
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#235 Postby cpdaman » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:28 pm

caneman not to be too much of a sticker for details but to me it appears it is WSW of your area the MLC or whatever it is, but it can't be that much if it is not mentioned in the area discussions right?

in the general area of 27.5 84.5

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL
Last edited by cpdaman on Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#236 Postby caneman » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:30 pm

cpdaman wrote:caneman not to be too much of a sticker for details but to me it appears it is WSW of your area

in the general area of 27.5 84.5

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL


agreed.
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#237 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:31 pm

Wow that's pretty close to home...figures
that something would try to pop in the gulf
after the days and days of rain and storms we
got from the stalled trough/front
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Re: 12Z GFS New Development Next Week in GOM (RECON SET)

#238 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:33 pm

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#239 Postby Aquawind » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:34 pm

Just keep on pushing the juice into my area.. 8-)
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#240 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:38 pm

What are the chances at this point that this will develop?
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