Invest 99L,Near Windwards,Thread #4

[dwg71]

not a TD based upon the data

Is it possible Mr. Ortt this can become a major system in the gulf?

I wanna ask kat out tommorow!

I dont see any reason to believe that as of yet... its not even a TD.

[cycloneye]

I think its a tropical depression. What does Derek think.

24 hours and Im going to see katharine mcphee in concert again. I also hope to meet the brunette babe too!!!!

Hello Great One.See you baby!!

[storms in NC]

one thing is that it is growing. It may not be a TD but He is not from it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv.jpg

[Brent]

I think its a tropical depression. What does Derek think.

24 hours and Im going to see katharine mcphee in concert again. I also hope to meet the brunette babe too!!!!

Hello Great One.See you baby!!

[vaffie]

Barbados 1009 mb

[El Nino]

Still intensifying convection. Wouldn't be surprised if they find a new relocated center.

[canegrl04]

one thing is that it is growing. It may not be a TD but He is not from it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv.jpg

It should be classified as TD4 sometime this evening

[Extremeweatherguy]

one thing is that it is growing. It may not be a TD but He is not from it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv.jpg

It should be classified as TD4 sometime this evening

may be..but if not I think they will do so tomorrow after the next recon mission (assuming the system continues to look better and better).

[Cyclenall]

A TD? Between this thing,and the one in the GOM, we may have a tag team of Dean and Erin

I just thought of something...remember Bonnie and Charley?

I can't even keep up with all this reading. I must have read a 250 page book's worth of reading in less then 5 hours from all these threads.

Oh yes.I remember Bonnie and Charley. Charley was the one that mega charged himself in less than an hours time before making landfall over Florida.Caught the NHC off guard

I'm pointing towards the fact that the GOM thunderstorms right now that have a low chance of forming is like Bonnie and we have 99L...

I don't think it's a TD either currently, but so far it's looking good in the long run. Can't wait to finally get back to tracking these things, the excitement is overwhelming .

[storms in NC]

one thing is that it is growing. It may not be a TD but He is not from it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv.jpg

It should be classified as TD4 sometime this evening

may be..but if not I think they will do so tomorrow after the next recon mission (assuming the system continues to look better and better).

If it was to stop flaring it would have do so a few hour ago. I don't see that happening. Just see it get larger in size.

[gatorcane]

yep here goes folks -- this invest is developing as planned....

of course I am still bullish..

Again lets hope it doesn't deepen to quickly or else we are looking at a potential NW Caribbean situation......

Bonnie and Charley from 2004...this sure eerily reminds me of that duo at this point and just about the same time....

[dwg71]

Recon really doesnt show anything more than an open wave correct? It appears to be still a day or so away from any (if any) development.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Recon really doesnt show anything more than an open wave correct? It appears to be still a day or so away from any (if any) development.

There is a surface low pressure area, but it may not be completely closed yet. Winds are also up to 20-30mph (locally higher) at the surface. Pretty close to being a TD, but not quite there yet. We will have to see what it decides to do tonight. If it can blow up another great round of convection, then I think a TD by tomorrow morning or afternoon is very possible.

[windstorm99]

Local news here reporting hurricane hunters have indeed closed of a circulation with 99L.

[dwg71]

Local news here reporting hurricane hunters have indeed closed of a circulation with 99L.

wow! did not see that coming. Any verification on recon thread?

[jrod]

Recon really doesnt show anything more than an open wave correct? It appears to be still a day or so away from any (if any) development.

There is a surface low pressure area, but it may not be completely closed yet. Winds are also up to 20-30mph (locally higher) at the surface. Pretty close to being a TD, but not quite there yet. We will have to see what it decides to do tonight. If it can blow up another great round of convection, then I think a TD by tomorrow morning or afternoon is very possible.

I disagree and going with climo, I think it will fade when it reaches the E. carribean and if can sustain itself as wave might have a chance when it makes it the W. Carribean. Im wrong a lot so don't rip my prediction up too much.

As of right now I dont think it is even close to being a TD.

[vaffie]

Local news here reporting hurricane hunters have indeed closed of a circulation with 99L.

wow! did not see that coming. Any verification on recon thread?

they found a west wind and a southwest wind--I mentioned it several times.

[Brent]

Local news here reporting hurricane hunters have indeed closed of a circulation with 99L.

That's interesting to say the least.

[jrod]

I'll eat my crow only after the NHC confirms it.

[miamicanes177]

Wunderground is reporting recon might have found a closed circulation: Margie Kieper writes:

Recon obs for the disturbance just about to enter the eastern Caribbean appear to show support for a closed circulation at 1000 ft, with very light winds and a lowest pressure reading so far of 1002 mb. If a closed circulation is found, this disturbance will probably be labeled a tropical depression. Most recent water vapor imagery shows a moister environment in the eastern Caribbean, but convection is still disorganized.