Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

[Stormcenter]

It still looks like the area of interest IMO is where the NHC thinks it is south
to southwest of Mobile, AL. Just my two cents.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Sure looks to me like it is trying to form about 100 miles or so to my West. Weather has gone from lightning and significant rain fall to now a dead silence. Hmmm. When you've had systems form near your area before you just kinda of get the feel. Hard to explain.

Dead silent down here on Treasure Island too. Pinnellas Park/Kenneth City area was getting pounded around 12:30p.m.- approx. 2-2:30p.m. but back over here on the beach, nothing since the overnight-early a.m.

Do you feel like it's sort of the calm before the storm?

[JonathanBelles]

Sure looks to me like it is trying to form about 100 miles or so to my West. Weather has gone from lightning and significant rain fall to now a dead silence. Hmmm. When you've had systems form near your area before you just kinda of get the feel. Hard to explain.

Dead silent down here on Treasure Island too. Pinnellas Park/Kenneth City area was getting pounded around 12:30p.m.- approx. 2-2:30p.m. but back over here on the beach, nothing since the overnight-early a.m.

Do you feel like it's sort of the calm before the storm?

I live in Kenneth City and I was driving the HS getting pounded. Very quiet now.

[Wx_Warrior]

Pinnellas Park...Is that Bubba the Love Sponge zone?

[JonathanBelles]

Pinellas Park...Is that Bubba the Love Sponge zone?

LOL yes I think thats where he lives.

[Aquawind]

Clearly a MLC in the eastern gulf on TBW radar and visable stattelite.. Evidently the frontal boundry is to lift north from a building high to the south tomorrow according to the TBW discussion. Not alot of time for much other than rain to develop..

[Laser3003]

Not much going on here in North Redington Beach Fl

[hiflyer]

Thank goodness I don't see that little twist on radar about 27n 84w....or the overall clockwise circ over florida....or the warm ssts in the gom....naaaah....

[southerngale]

Aww, come on. I don't even ask that many questions. lol
Anyone? Anyone?

Bueller?

I've been gone since about 8:30 this morning and got home just a bit ago to this. Recon is going!? Wow.

Well, I've read a little and about to go read some more pages, but I have a question. I think I've seen it either implied or posted that it could move in just about all four directions. lol
If I understand it correctly, it's most likely to move primarily northward and do it fairly quickly, or no? But... if it sits for a while with weak steering currents, that high pressure might build in from the east. Not enough to send it west though, right?

I've read more since I posted that, but I still don't know the answer. Perhaps nobody knows.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Aww, come on. I don't even ask that many questions. lol
Anyone? Anyone?

Bueller?

I've been gone since about 8:30 this morning and got home just a bit ago to this. Recon is going!? Wow.

Well, I've read a little and about to go read some more pages, but I have a question. I think I've seen it either implied or posted that it could move in just about all four directions. lol
If I understand it correctly, it's most likely to move primarily northward and do it fairly quickly, or no? But... if it sits for a while with weak steering currents, that high pressure might build in from the east. Not enough to send it west though, right?

I've read more since I posted that, but I still don't know the answer. Perhaps nobody knows.

I'm not sure...depends on the highs interaction with the trough...I think....

[srainhoutx]

Aww, come on. I don't even ask that many questions. lol
Anyone? Anyone?

Bueller?

I've been gone since about 8:30 this morning and got home just a bit ago to this. Recon is going!? Wow.

Well, I've read a little and about to go read some more pages, but I have a question. I think I've seen it either implied or posted that it could move in just about all four directions. lol
If I understand it correctly, it's most likely to move primarily northward and do it fairly quickly, or no? But... if it sits for a while with weak steering currents, that high pressure might build in from the east. Not enough to send it west though, right?

I've read more since I posted that, but I still don't know the answer. Perhaps nobody knows.

does the name Alicia come to mind

[HeeBGBz]

Woah, when I settled in for my afternoon nap, this was on 6 pages. I woke up and it was at 12. Took me a lot of reading to catch up to the fact we may be up for a significant storminess.

The thunder woke me up. Low rumbles and I can't pinpoint where it's coming from because we have a haze over everything. The barometer is currently at 1011.7 and rising with calm winds. I was looking at some of the local weather stations in the area and the ones to the east of me show barometer readings of 1009 and 1008. I don't know how accurate they are because there is also one showing 1004 in Long Beach and one 1048 in DeLisle!

Looks like things are going to get interesting in the next day or so. My trip to the grocery store is going to suck. Unless of course no one else is paying attention to the weather yet.

[seaswing]

I can't believe how gunhoe they are on this system...that convection just blossomed late last night....

it must mean we could see rapid development. Hopefully it gets over land quick.

I think they are much more vigilant since Katrina.

[skysummit]

I can't believe how gunhoe they are on this system...that convection just blossomed late last night....

it must mean we could see rapid development. Hopefully it gets over land quick.

I think they are much more vigilant since Katrina.

So far no mention of it in New Orleans. Not that I've heard anyway.

[Stormcenter]

Here is a new wrinkle from the NWS afternoon discussion out Shreveport, LA. in reference to the future movement of the possible problem in the GOM.
DISCUSSION...
MOISUTURE AXIS FROM SE TX...THROUGH FTW METRO AREA...INTO
OK....SLOWLY MOVG WEST. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS HOLDING TEMPS WAY DOWN
OVER LFK AREA...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT EASTWARD TO TOLEDO
BEND...NORTHWARD TO I-20...COMBINED WITH WET GROUND SO ADDED PATCHY
FOG...WITH A SMALL EMBEDDED POCKET OF DENSE FOG...RIGHT NEAR LFK.
CONVECTION BEGAN FORMING OVER MS AND SE LA DURG AFTN. THROUGH IN
SLIGHT CHANCE EVENING ACTIVITY FOR ALL BUT PARTS OF SW AR AND RED
RIVER VALLEY OF OK/TX. BASICALLY GOING WITH SCATTERED SOUTH...ISOLATED
NORTH THURSDAY AFTN. AFTER THAT...WILL HAVE TWO COMPETING FORCES
IN EFFECT...STRONG RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD...AND WESTWARD MOVG LOW
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVER NE GULF. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS HINTING AT
THIS TREND...WHICH GFS PICKING UP ON. FOR NOW...WILL JUST GO
CHANCE SOUTH...SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH...INTO SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
DIURNAL. IF THIS FEATURE DOMINATES...POPS COULD BE RAISED QUITE A
BIT. IF IT DOESNT...WILL BE HOT AND DRY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S A
PREVAILING AFTERNOON HIGH...UNDER AN INCREASINGLY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURE FIELD. /VII/

[seaswing]

I can't believe how gunhoe they are on this system...that convection just blossomed late last night....

it must mean we could see rapid development. Hopefully it gets over land quick.

I think they are much more vigilant since Katrina.

So far no mention of it in New Orleans. Not that I've heard anyway.

Katrina wasn't just a LA storm...Mississippi got some of the worst and Florida was also affected although no where near what MS and LA got.

[jrod]

If one of the invests develops soon, I think this one will be it. I can already see rotation on the satellite frames. It appears to be looking more like an entity every hour, at least to me.

[dwg71]

is this an ivest???

[skysummit]

Katrina wasn't just a LA storm...Mississippi got some of the worst and Florida was also affected although no where near what MS and LA got.

You honestly think I didn't know that? I was out the afternoon of Katrina working recovery all along the Gulf Coast.

[Aquawind]

is this an ivest???

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

Floater 3