Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

[seaswing]

Katrina wasn't just a LA storm...Mississippi got some of the worst and Florida was also affected although no where near what MS and LA got.

You honestly think I didn't know that? I was out the afternoon of Katrina working recovery all along the Gulf Coast.

So sorry, didn't mean to offend you. Just your statement sounded as though you were referring more to LA. I also was in LA with DART team rescuing animals for HSUS. Also got caught in Rita.... a very hard summer for many....

Seas

[dwg71]

so its 90L?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a new wrinkle from the NWS afternoon discussion out Shreveport, LA. in reference to the future movement of the possible problem in the GOM.
DISCUSSION...
MOISUTURE AXIS FROM SE TX...THROUGH FTW METRO AREA...INTO
OK....SLOWLY MOVG WEST. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS HOLDING TEMPS WAY DOWN
OVER LFK AREA...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT EASTWARD TO TOLEDO
BEND...NORTHWARD TO I-20...COMBINED WITH WET GROUND SO ADDED PATCHY
FOG...WITH A SMALL EMBEDDED POCKET OF DENSE FOG...RIGHT NEAR LFK.
CONVECTION BEGAN FORMING OVER MS AND SE LA DURG AFTN. THROUGH IN
SLIGHT CHANCE EVENING ACTIVITY FOR ALL BUT PARTS OF SW AR AND RED
RIVER VALLEY OF OK/TX. BASICALLY GOING WITH SCATTERED SOUTH...ISOLATED
NORTH THURSDAY AFTN. AFTER THAT...WILL HAVE TWO COMPETING FORCES
IN EFFECT...STRONG RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD...AND WESTWARD MOVG LOW
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVER NE GULF. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS HINTING AT
THIS TREND...WHICH GFS PICKING UP ON. FOR NOW...WILL JUST GO
CHANCE SOUTH...SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH...INTO SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
DIURNAL. IF THIS FEATURE DOMINATES...POPS COULD BE RAISED QUITE A
BIT. IF IT DOESNT...WILL BE HOT AND DRY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S A
PREVAILING AFTERNOON HIGH...UNDER AN INCREASINGLY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURE FIELD. /VII/

Interesting that they call it a "westward moving" low. I guess Shreveport expects the high to build in a push it west?

[Ivanhater]

so its 90L?

Not yet...but with them sending a plane out tomorrow..I would think they are going to start running models on it

[Windsurfer_NYC]

so its 90L?

Not yet...but with them sending a plane out tomorrow..I would think they are going to start running models on it

Probably in time for the 00Z model run in the next few hours, I'd think...

[Stormcenter]

Here is another afternoon discusion mentioning a westward moving low.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
259 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

.SHORT TERM...
THE WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXTEND
FROM A LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI DELTA THROUGH
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...SOME
DRYING FROM THE NORTH IS EXPECTED AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
WEST INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES LITTLE. DEEP MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE AREA NEAR
THE LOW / TROUGH TONIGHT BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE...AND CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
DIMINISH INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE SLIGHT OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ABOUT
STATIONARY AS THE WESTERN PART OF THE SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTS SOUTH
TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THE LOW WILL CIRCULATE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE HIGHEST IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA NORTH OF THE LOW AND THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH AND BROADEN INTO AN EAST TO WEST TROUGH NEAR THE COAST LATE
IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. CHANCES OF RAIN FRIDAY WILL BE LIKELY IN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO A GOOD CHANCE OVER MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

[Aquawind]

Here is a new wrinkle from the NWS afternoon discussion out Shreveport, LA. in reference to the future movement of the possible problem in the GOM.
DISCUSSION...
MOISUTURE AXIS FROM SE TX...THROUGH FTW METRO AREA...INTO
OK....SLOWLY MOVG WEST. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS HOLDING TEMPS WAY DOWN
OVER LFK AREA...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT EASTWARD TO TOLEDO
BEND...NORTHWARD TO I-20...COMBINED WITH WET GROUND SO ADDED PATCHY
FOG...WITH A SMALL EMBEDDED POCKET OF DENSE FOG...RIGHT NEAR LFK.
CONVECTION BEGAN FORMING OVER MS AND SE LA DURG AFTN. THROUGH IN
SLIGHT CHANCE EVENING ACTIVITY FOR ALL BUT PARTS OF SW AR AND RED
RIVER VALLEY OF OK/TX. BASICALLY GOING WITH SCATTERED SOUTH...ISOLATED
NORTH THURSDAY AFTN. AFTER THAT...WILL HAVE TWO COMPETING FORCES
IN EFFECT...STRONG RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD...AND WESTWARD MOVG LOW
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVER NE GULF. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS HINTING AT
THIS TREND...WHICH GFS PICKING UP ON. FOR NOW...WILL JUST GO
CHANCE SOUTH...SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH...INTO SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
DIURNAL. IF THIS FEATURE DOMINATES...POPS COULD BE RAISED QUITE A
BIT. IF IT DOESNT...WILL BE HOT AND DRY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S A
PREVAILING AFTERNOON HIGH...UNDER AN INCREASINGLY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURE FIELD. /VII/

Interesting that they call it a "westward moving" low. I guess Shreveport expects the high to build in a push it west?

Tampa mentions nothing other than northward movement of the boundry..

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ZONES WILL REMAIN STATIONARY TONIGHT KEEPING DEEP
MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH TO ACROSS
NORTHERN FL THU AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN FL BUILDS NORTH. THIS WILL LIFT THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND
BRING SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA BY THU NIGHT.

[windstorm99]

This entire area to me has only one way to go and its toward the atlantic as the jet stream pushes it that way.

[Stormcenter]

This entire area to me has only one way to go and its toward the atlantic as the jet stream pushes it that way.

I think a building ridge will prevent that from happening but I'm no expert.

[Steve]

18z NAM is coming out and it's joining the other models with an apparent Alabama landfall now moving the trail of moisture across the western Panhandle of Florida.

So unless things change with the 00z models, and assuming something actually develops, it looks like we've got an Alabama system on our hands according to model concensus. We shall see.

Steve

[Ivanhater]

18z NAM is coming out and it's joining the other models with an apparent Alabama landfall now moving the trail of moisture across the western Panhandle of Florida.

So unless things change with the 00z models, and assuming something actually develops, it looks like we've got an Alabama system on our hands according to model concensus. We shall see.

Steve

The bushwacker festival is this weekend on Pensacola beach...Going to be a lot of ticked people here if this is the case including me!

[Stormcenter]

Here is the afternoon NWS discussion out of the Big Easy.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOWED AN ELONGATED LOW OVER
NORTHEAST GULF WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. 5H UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER INDIANA AND ANOTHER OVER NORTHWEST
COLORADO. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ALONG EAST COAST
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST GULF. PROFILERS AT OKOLONA AND
BLOOMFIELD SHOWED WINDS A 500MB BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST 12Z TO
15Z. SOME INDICATION OF A WEAK TROUGH AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE
DEVELOPING AT 5H WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST GULF TO THE OZARKS.
OUR INITIALLY THINKING IS A GENERAL DESCENT OF AIR WOULD OCCUR
BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND NW QUAD OF LOW AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. PW VALUE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE 1.8 INCHES SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA IS ON LINE WITH FORECAST.

NAM CONTINUE TO BE THE AGGRESSOR WITH THIS LOW THROUGH FRIDAY.
STEERING WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH OR LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF COL. ATM IS
VERTICALLY STACKED. BOTH GFS AND NAM HAVE THE BERMUDA RIDGE OVER
EASTERN ATLANTIC BUILDING WEST OVER FLORIDA AND NORTHEAST GULF
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
WILL SHIFT WEST AND SURFACE TROUGH/LOW WILL FOLLOW INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST BY FRIDAY. ERGO...INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES LIKELY MAINLY EAST OF THE POSSIBLE LOW/TROUGH THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY DUE TO RAIN.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER FLORIDA WILL MOVE WEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL
GULF. AT THE SAME TIME...MAIN RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE LOWER AND
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GFS INTRODUCES AN INVERTED
TROUGH THE GULF LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...POPS AND TEMPS NEAR NORM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

[Sabanic]

If that scenario takes place then it would be a huge rain maker for MS/Al/Fl Panhandle areas IMHO.

[Wx_Warrior]

The Bushwacker fest?

[Dean4Storms]

Here's the explanation on the west movement of the Low.

From Tally AFD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
336 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2007

SYNOPSIS: THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN EDGE
OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF HAS LARGELY
DISSIPATED. OVER LAND, ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRETTY SPARSE SO FAR, AS
DEPICTED IN THE WRF. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM NOVA SCOATIA SWWD INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR HAS WORKED IN AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS ALL THE
WAY TO THE FL BORDER.

&&

SHORT TERM: TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
CYCLOGENESIS ON THE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS NOW SHOW LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT TONIGHT S OF THE PANHANDLE AND THEN
DRIFTING W ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO A POSITION S OF LA BY 12Z THU. THE
LOW THEN DRIFTS SLOWLY NWD INTO SRN LA BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE NAM
ACTUALLY DEEPENS THE LOW MORESO THAN THE GFS NOW. CONSIDERING THE
LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS MODEL, WE PREFER THE GFS.

[Brent]

Birmingham:

FIRST OFF IS THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN GULF...ALONG AN OLD
FRONTAL TROUGH. MODELS INSIST ON SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT/DEEPENING
WITH THIS CONVECTION. FSU PHASE DIAGRAMS BASED ON BOTH THE NAM AND
THE GFS SUGGEST THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE LARGELY
CHARACTERIZED AS TROPICAL (SYMMETRICAL WARM CORE) IF IT WERE TO
OCCUR. THAT IS THE FIRST BIG IF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS THING. AND
ASSUMING IT DOES DEVELOP (TO ANY DEGREE)...THE OTHER BIG QUESTION
IS WHERE DOES IT GO. LAST 24 HOURS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS DOES NOT
CLEAR UP THE MUDDY WATERS AT ALL...AS SOLUTIONS HAVE RANGED FROM
TEXAS TO GEORGIA.

So basically it could go anywhere.

[Aquawind]

Bingo Brent..

[Steve]

Here's the longrange loop of out New Orleans that covers coastal Mississippi. I don't get what all the NWS stations are looking at based on the models I'm looking at, but if they think it's a SE LA deal, they obviously have better tools than I do.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

As for the Bushwhacker Festival, that would bite. That's my favorite frozen beach (chick) drink in the world. It's one of the greatest drinks ever. They make it a couple of different ways depending on where you are on the Panhandle. But I loves me some Bushwackers.

Steve

[tolakram]

NHC has this as an 'invest', for the last few hours actually. What number would this be?

[caneman]

man, oh man. Look at the moisture stream that this thing has!