Invest 99L,Near Windwards,Thread #4

[KFDM Meteorologist]

It will remain a wave for now.

[HURAKAN]

We need another diurnal maximum!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

There does seem to be an element of a West wind Southeast of the convection, but I think that apparent outflow boundary racing away is a sign this is devolving.

[DrewFL]

Wednesday afternoon update #2: There appears to be a broad low with no closed circulation on the latest recon obs for 99L -- which is back on the NRL web site (sigh). Winds are light and variable, and no westerly winds at all on the last leg from the SW in to the center.


From Margie on Master's blog.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I guess we didn't get the usual WONT41 special tropical disturbance message that the 53rd WRS couldn't close off a circulation, because we are so close to the TWOAT?

[RL3AO]

This is going to be an interesting TWO.

[skysummit]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 012113
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON WAS NOT ABLE TO FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL
INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON THURSDAY IF NECESSARY. NUMEROUS
SQUALLS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[gatorcane]

sounds to me like it won't be upgraded, based on reading this thread....but I could be wrong...

probably will have to wait until tomorrow at this time...

[dwg71]

That TWO was rather depressing. Not real excited about either at this point.

[Brent]

*yawn*

[Ed Mahmoud]

sounds to me like it won't be upgraded, based on reading this thread....but I could be wrong...

probably will have to wait until tomorrow at this time...

My gut feeling, it almost made it, but missed its chance. It looks bad now, with a boundary racing away from the center, which should mess up its inflow, if I had to guess. Based on the old John Hope rule, it will be about 3 days before it can fire up.

Although the TWOAT, from the paid experts, thinks it still has a shot tomorrow.

[storms in NC]

They are not going to hit a bell and yell WE GOT ONE! They said what they had to say and that is all they ever do.

[DrewFL]

Great job! It's just a wave still!

[RL3AO]

Closing in on sunset.

[Derek Ortt]

the old John Hope rule, IMO, is a pile of dung. How many systems have we seen devleop in the E Carib the past few years? Quite a few

It only matters what the atmospheric conditions are at the present time and they look more favorable now than they did the last two days

[storms in NC]

Will see you all after my surgery. Should be back home Friday. Maybe by then something will come together.

[Brent]

the old John Hope rule, IMO, is a pile of dung. How many systems have we seen devleop in the E Carib the past few years? Quite a few

It only matters what the atmospheric conditions are at the present time and they look more favorable now than they did the last two days

I agree. I don't see any significant problems ahead for this.

and yeah several storms have developed in the Eastern Caribbean recently.

[cycloneye]

To say only one,Ivan was a major in the Eastern Caribbean and not weakened.

[dwg71]

Posts with the word "dung" in it, are always favorites of mine.

I dont buy it either, it has bigger structural problems to worry about some "bermuda triangle" of TC's.

[RL3AO]

At least we know where the COC is.