Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

[Beam]

Thread 1: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96179

Thread 2: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96512

Thread 3: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96550

Thread 4: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96602

[dwg71]

101 pages of invest discussion heaven! First Hurricane will be fun to watch.

[cycloneye]

The thread will be opened once the other one reaches the full 25 pages.

[chadtm80]

the SAL also often does not help things in the EC... often times we have screaing low level easterlies due to the SAL.

Also, Alpha, Gamma, Ernesto, Claudette, Mindy developed in the EC and Chantal redeveloped in the EC, as did Isidore

It is all about the atmospheric parameters. As for the genesis maps, I would not be the least bit surprised if many of those that just happened to form just east of the islands really formed in the EC and that there was only an MLC before reaching the islands.

But you must admit that significantly less form just west of the islands then do east. As for whether they were not really tropical cyclones at the time, there certainly has been enough data in that area for a very long time to support the currently positioned areas of genesis. In fact, better data would have probably placed the genesis even further east, not further west.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not sure about that CBS

We have seen in recent years that many things that looked like TCs east of the islands never became TCs until they moved into the EC. Chantal, Claudette, Dennis, and Ernesto are the best examples of this

[Ivanhater]

This is where I think any low might form...

[Aquawind]

Most interesting near 12.5N and 59.4W with some deep convection on the NW edge. Looks to be alot of cu heading north into that area as the sun sets.

[Derek Ortt]

that blob between the islands appears to be outflow boundary related... still watching SE of that blob

[Ivanhater]

that blob between the islands appears to be outflow boundary related... still watching SE of that blob

I tried to put the circle on the southeast edge of that blob...how much further southeast are you looking?

[Aquawind]

one blob over..

[Opal storm]

Wow 99L was the headline story on our local news.

[HURAKAN]

Wow 99L was the headline story on our local news.

Are you surprised!!!

[Aquawind]

Wow 99L was the headline story on our local news.

Are you surprised!!!

I am...


It's nuttin yet.. media needs to make news i reckon..

[HURAKAN]

Wow 99L was the headline story on our local news.

Are you surprised!!!

I am...


It's nuttin yet.. media needs to make news i reckon..

T51's anchors mentioned "aviones caza huracanes," meaning, "planes of reconnaissance." They just want to hype everything.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm near 12.4N and 59.2W

[Ptarmigan]

Once that blob enters the Caribbean, I would expect some development, probably a tropical storm at least.

[Ivanhater]

I'm near 12.4N and 59.2W

Oh way southeast of me...hmmm I will be watching both areas

[HURAKAN]

During the morning hours it did a great comeback. I think that tomorrow morning another push will allow the system to develop and we could have a depression by 11 AM or 5 PM. We have to wait to see how the system responds to the diurnal maximum. Same CD and the same song.

[jaxfladude]

Is this system a threat to the U.S. GOM coastline or are the forecasted tracks if any take it into Central America/Yucatan Peninsula part of Mexico?

[HURAKAN]

Is this system a threat to the U.S. GOM coastline or are the forecasted tracks if any take it into Central America/Yucatan Peninsula part of Mexico?

The models continue to say it shouldn't be a threat to the US mainland, but we have to wait to see what happens when the system develops and the effect the GOM disturbance could have in the strenght of the Bermuda High. Models don't work well with disorganized cloudiness.