Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

[Normandy]

^at this point no. Id say chances of a TD developing have decreased.

[vaffie]

Unless something dramatic happens and soon, i expect that the center will reform one degree to the north at ~13N and by that point 62-64W.

[Brent]

oo..so you say no TD?

Defintely not tonight. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

[philnyc]

Here's what I pulled up for forecast conditions tomorrow at 00Z (8PM EST):

ASSUMING IT IS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND ROUGHLY HALFWAY BETWEEN P.R. AND SOUTH AMERICA TOMORROW EVENING. (SORRY I DIDN'T MARK THE EXPECTED STORM POSITION)

Mid level moisture looks fine:


Upper level winds are forecast to continue to be very light, so it will have good outflow. Bear in mind that the streamlines (which I charted but am not posting here) don't show the anticyclone overhead because the forecast models simply can't handle tropical systems at this resolution:


Wind shear does not appear to be a problem either:


As one of you Miami guys said, the lower level convergence is the only variable that looks questionable right now. But that is surely the hardest one to forecast. Once again, I can't post an ARL forecast graphic or any other model numbers, because the models don't deal with tropical cyclones very well. But as Derek has discussed, screaming easterlies (i.e. very high trade winds) can inhibit the ability of the thunderstorms developing near the LLC to suck up the low-level moisture into a consolidating center (in effect, low level shear).

Here, by the way, are the model forecast surface winds for tomorrow evening at 00Z. The caveat is that I don't know how much of the forecast speed is reliable because I don't know how much of any tropical depression wind speed the model might have had initialized into it:



So the bottom line, as far as I can see right now, is that everything looks good except for it's high forward speed and the high trade winds below it. I mean, c'mon, look at the satellite loops and watch those low level clouds rippin' along. That usually is not a storm-killer, but it definitely slows development. So this may flicker on and off all the way until it is south of Haiti before it really gets going.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks like there is a TUTT low near Jamaica. Actually the more I look at the synoptics in the Caribbean, the more it looks alot like what Ernesto faced last year. That TUTT low is moving west but notice that large UL counterclockwise flow. In fact it is that flow which I believe will cause the bulk of this convection to blow off to the NW and I THINK that the general movement of the blob will be more WNW over the next couple of days. I am actually thinking it will be a bit farther north than some of the global models want to put it and wouldn't be surprise if the blob ends up alot closer to the island of Hispaniola.

What this means is that interest along the SE coast of the US will need to monitor the situation. I don't buy that this blob is heading for Mexico or even Texas...unless somehow it just stays and open wave and doesn't develop.

Do you all see what I am talking about?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[MGC]

99L is a yo-yo on a string. Up one minute, down the next. I wish it would either spin of fizzle. I'm still thinking that if it does spin it won't do so until 99L reaches the central Caribbean Sea......MGC

[Ivanhater]

I think if the NW blob keeps going like it is...now with reds ...it will take over...just a guess at this point...

[gatorcane]

Yes, I do believe the NW blob could be significant here as we watch it try to figure out where it wants to organize....again totally not sold on a westrunner into Mexico or central america..

[Weatherfreak14]

I think this is going to be a suprising morning when i wake up, either that main blob will take over(which will make this almost a depression, or more convection could flare where the old LLC was. which would prolly be less impressive in the morning. my 2 cents.

[Normandy]

That blob looks to have a nice MLC with it....but all blobs usually do when they die.

[LeeJet]

If it isn't Ernesto's bastard son...

[Janie2006]

I don't buy the westward solution (Texas/Mexico) either, assuming 99L holds on for a significant period of time.

[Normandy]

LOL this thing is a mess. It has three different little balls of convection each separated by 70+ miles. Thats called disorganization.

[jaxfladude]

So it is on to the next invest right, is this thread about to be locked....?

[Normandy]

^Yeah its still an invest...but I dont know If people should be too concerned much about it anymore.

[philnyc]

Hey, what happened to Aric? I thought he'd be all over this thing...

[Cyclone1]

Hey, what happened to Aric? I thought he'd be all over this thing...

Haven't seen him in a while.

[Praxus]

Apparently he got banned. Three days or somethin...

[Cyclenall]

The following post is NOT an official forecast/product and should not be used as such. Its just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here are my % chances for 99L:

First % chance of Invest 99L becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 68%
Tropical Storm: 56%
Hurricane: 45% ~
Category 2 Hurricane: 20%
Category 3 Hurricane: 10%
Category 4 Hurricane: 3%
Category 5 Hurricane: 1% ~

~Mostly unknown

BTW, I don't think I've seen a system cause so many yo-yo opinions. I'm not even going to try to guess, since it's in the air mostly.

^Yeah its still an invest...but I dont know If people should be too concerned much about it anymore.

You can't be serious?

[mgpetre]

Seriously! This thing has been up and down for a few days and it's still spinning its way into the Carribean. I think everyone is just a little tired of 99L, but the truth is it isn't getting tired yet, it still has much warm water ahead and very little shear to worry about. True it may just be blazing the trail for waves yet to come, but I do think it is still possibly of great concern. It's won't be gone in the morning, I'm willing to bet on that.