Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

[Javlin]

It's a naked swirl right now,anyone got a fork,"Please".If my Wife was that way I be a happy guy right about now

[philnyc]

It's a naked swirl right now,anyone got a fork,"Please".If my Wife was that way I be a happy guy right about now

The number of people who said that last night is almost uncountable.

[weatherguru18]

The NHC hasn't even issued a special statement about the system either. But I agree with whoever said it is up in the air. This thing could do a number of tricks before it's all said and done. I wouldn't even rule out Bermuda or Iceland. (being sarcastic)

Anybody remember Hurricane Elena? It was a Cat. 3 headed for Biloxi, MS. The whole town evacuated. Then it said "nope!" and turned for Tampa. Well all of Tampa evacuated and again Elena said "gotchya!". It then turned around and went for Biloxi again. It finally made landfall there. So you just can't ever tell with these systems. The weaker they are, the harder the forecast.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_Atlan ... ane_season

[Fego]

The hype is slowing down... you can feel it.

[skysummit]

It's a naked swirl right now,anyone got a fork,"Please".If my Wife was that way I be a happy guy right about now

The number of people who said that last night is almost uncountable.

Yes, please don't start that nonsense again.

[philnyc]

At this point it looks like it will remain a tropical wave, just as they look over Africa, with the convection out ahead of the wave axis, for the next one or two days. But since that type of structure is pretty stable (it can survive over a long distance), the wave will survive until it gets to the mid Caribbean (south of Haiti), where the surface (trade) winds slow down and the mid level winds slow down even more. At that point the convection will consolidate over the LLC. As the storm relative winds come into balance around that location, it will have low or relatively low shear, good outflow aloft (upper level diveregence), good low level convergence, VERY high SSTs and plenty of mid level moisture. So by Saturday this could be a significant storm and thus a problem for somewhere between Nicaragua and western Cuba.

[rjgator]

The NHC hasn't even issued a special statement about the system either. But I agree with whoever said it is up in the air. This thing could do a number of tricks before it's all said and done. I wouldn't even rule out Bermuda or Iceland. (being sarcastic)

Anybody remember Hurricane Elena? It was a Cat. 3 headed for Biloxi, MS. The whole town evacuated. Then it said "nope!" and turned for Tampa. Well all of Tampa evacuated and again Elena said "gotchya!". It then turned around and went for Biloxi again. It finally made landfall there. So you just can't ever tell with these systems. The weaker they are, the harder the forecast.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_Atlan ... ane_season

I remember Hurricane Floyd in 99. It was making a beeline for Florida as a strong Cat 4 and we went to sleep expecting it to be here the next day. The West side of the storm was sheared off overnight be the and we had a blue sky the next day as he also decided to turn more to the NW and went over Eleuthra as a cat 3 or 4 (I can not remember). Throughout its Northwestward track the Entire East Coast from Miami to Mass. was put under a HC Warning at one time or another. It was like a mass evacuation from the South to the North and the HC kept following people. The forecast track and models continually had a slight westward bias making the Warnings move up the coast. The overall track guidance was average and the 24 hour was actually pretty good. It just shows how far off a landfall point can be when the direction changes slightly with storms paralleling the coast. Then he finally came in near Cape Fear as a Cat two.

[Fego]

How right or wrong am I pointing the center at ...

[skysummit]

That's about where it should be Fego. However, it's getting harder and harder to make out on IR.

[marcane_1973]

Maybe within 2-3 weeks we will see our first cane. It might even take till September to get everything just right in the Tropics this year for things to start picking up. Something is just missing. There have been plenty of strong waves but they all seem to just fizzle out. Must be all the dry air that has been present in the Atlantic so far this season. Maybe the waves that have been coming through lately will pave the way for some of these other impressive big waves coming off of Africa right now and they wont be so starved of moisture this time around. On Water Vapor http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg you can see those dry pockets of air in the Caribbean, Southern Bahamas, and even a little in the Central Atlantic. If those areas of dry air could dissipate soon it sure could help out these waves to get going. Thoughts anyone???

[Javlin]

That's about where it should be Fego. However, it's getting harder and harder to make out on IR.

That's what I am saying now does it reform? big question mark.Hey the dog on the porch is sleeping more,that one eye is just not opening and guess what that's a good thing isn't it.The GOM rain at best.CYA

[Normandy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast/product and should not be used as such. Its just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here are my % chances for 99L:

First % chance of Invest 99L becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 68%
Tropical Storm: 56%
Hurricane: 45% ~
Category 2 Hurricane: 20%
Category 3 Hurricane: 10%
Category 4 Hurricane: 3%
Category 5 Hurricane: 1% ~

~Mostly unknown

BTW, I don't think I've seen a system cause so many yo-yo opinions. I'm not even going to try to guess, since it's in the air mostly.

^Yeah its still an invest...but I dont know If people should be too concerned much about it anymore.

You can't be serious?

What did I sound like I was joking?

This thing is so disorganized that all the convection is forming hundreds of miles away from any low and mid level vorticity it has (If it has any at all). I think your 68% chance is seriously bullish for a system that looks as awful as this does.

[MWatkins]

It is possible...and I think probable that the center/axis is further west than the latest position estimates from the NHC. Can't wait to see visible imagery in the morning...

MW

[philnyc]

Maybe within 2-3 weeks we will see our first cane. It might even take till September to get everything just right in the Tropics this year for things to start picking up. Something is just missing. There have been plenty of strong waves but they all seem to just fizzle out. Must be all the dry air that has been present in the Atlantic so far this season. Maybe the waves that have been coming through lately will pave the way for some of these other impressive big waves coming off of Africa right now and they wont be so starved of moisture this time around. On Water Vapor http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg you can see those dry pockets of air in the Caribbean, Southern Bahamas, and even a little in the Central Atlantic. If those areas of dry air could dissipate soon it sure could help out these waves to get going. Thoughts anyone???

That's an UPPER level Water Vapor image. UPPER level water vapor has little to do with troipical development or intensification. You need to look at MIDDLE level Water Vapor. Try this:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8wvmid.html

[Cyclenall]

What did I sound like I was joking?

This thing is so disorganized that all the convection is forming hundreds of miles away from any low and mid level vorticity it has (If it has any at all). I think your 68% chance is seriously bullish for a system that looks as awful as this does.

I don't think it's as big as deal negativity speaking for 99L then it's made out to be. Did the whole problem of the faster low level trade winds just pop up out of nowhere? When that problem goes away (which is 100% going to change as it moves into the Caribbean), then it will have the chance to reorganize later as philnyc posted. Therefore, it should not be ignored all of a sudden from here on (not that it ever happens like that).

The 68% chance is high for now, but for later on? How high should it have been Wednesday afternoon? More like 75-80%. It all depends on the state of the wave of what sounds like the right %. It's a yo-yo pattern here, and I hate it myself because it makes things less certain.

[Evil Jeremy]

its starting to grow

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't think this will develop, just remain a wave in go into the eastern pacific.

[hicksta]

I like how half the people on here say TD at 5pm and now they are saying it wont be anything. Makes me smile

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That is what 2 out of ever 3 waves do. Also this is running out of time to do anything, so I think my thinking could easly come true.

[Normandy]

What did I sound like I was joking?

This thing is so disorganized that all the convection is forming hundreds of miles away from any low and mid level vorticity it has (If it has any at all). I think your 68% chance is seriously bullish for a system that looks as awful as this does.

I don't think it's as big as deal negativity speaking for 99L then it's made out to be. Did the whole problem of the faster low level trade winds just pop up out of nowhere? When that problem goes away (which is 100% going to change as it moves into the Caribbean), then it will have the chance to reorganize later as philnyc posted. Therefore, it should not be ignored all of a sudden from here on (not that it ever happens like that).

The 68% chance is high for now, but for later on? How high should it have been Wednesday afternoon? More like 75-80%. It all depends on the state of the wave of what sounds like the right %. It's a yo-yo pattern here, and I hate it myself because it makes things less certain.

Id agree its a yo-yo pattern, but its lost all of any organization it previously had. A couple of days ago when this wave was flaring up and down, I accepted it as slow organization because and *only* because the convection that flared did so around the area of lowest pressure. This time, look at the sat image. The convection has exploded hundreds of miles west and resembles a squall line racing westward. The low is still EAST of the Winwards and the convection is approaching the ABC Islands!! Thats a sure sign of a POOOOOOOOOORLY organized system.

I mean sure it *could* develop into something down the road, but as it stands now its chances of becoming a TD have DECREASED and imo giving it a 68% chance is very bullish. It looks awful now, despite all the convection. Perhaps something could spin up under that convection, but I would be shocked if it happened. If it does develop within the next 24 hours into a TD ill be the first to eat crow and you can let me hear all about it.


Also, if any low were to redevelop, I would watch the convective burst behind the larger one racing towards the ABC islands. IR2 shows some decent inflow into this burst, and if any new low were to form it would likely be there.

EDIT
My insomnia has bitten me again, just checked in on 99L and man the convection is popping. Nice inflow to the easternmost convective burst....perhaps I was wrong after all?