Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

[wxman57]

Here's a GARP plot. Obs suggest an open wave. With forward speed increasing, it's hard to develop an LLC. Have to wait for it to slow down by Honduras/Nicaragua in 3-4 days for development chances to improve.

[vaffie]

It's really impressive. The midlevel circulation on satellite appears to be at about 13.7N, 65W. We will have to wait to see where the surface center is, but I expect that they're stacked..

[DrewFL]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 02 2007

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N61W...MOVING WEST
10 KT. THIS LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN WEAKENING LITTLE BY LITTLE
AND HAS BECOME AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS POINT BY
02/0900 UTC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
12N TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH.
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA AGAIN
LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY.


Yep....just an open wave.

[alan1961]

those two big blobs look like they are trying to encircle each other..good signs i say..game is on!

[Emmett_Brown]

those two big blobs look like they are trying to encircle each other..good signs i say..game is on!

True... just the last few frames http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html seem rather impressive. You can visualize a mid level spin forming between the blobs.

This is definitely an open wave at the surface, but from the looks of it, it is getting its act together.

[punkyg]

Yeah!

[wxman57]

12N/61W is east of the Caribbean Sea (see my chart above). There's no low OR wave axis there, it's in the Caribbean. I wonder who wrote this?

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 02 2007

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N61W...MOVING WEST
10 KT. THIS LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN WEAKENING LITTLE BY LITTLE
AND HAS BECOME AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS POINT BY
02/0900 UTC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
12N TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH.
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA AGAIN
LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY.


Yep....just an open wave.

[marcane_1973]

Invest 99 wants to be a speedy little I read the morning discussion and they are saying a westward motion. Is it supposed to go underneath the Dominican Republic and Haiti or go right over them? I say it has a chance if it does not go directly over them and stays south to where it just skirts by Jamaica. It still has to slow down some to get an LLC to form you would think

[skysummit]

LOL wxman57....I didn't catch that. That's pretty odd. Boy, this thing is hauling butt this morning! I don't see how it can get its act together moving this quick, but stranger things have happened.

[DrewFL]

LOL....good point Wxman! I didn't notice that!

[vaffie]

12N/61W is east of the Caribbean Sea (see my chart above). There's no low OR wave axis there, it's in the Caribbean. I wonder who wrote this?

Today will be a day of big changes. From nothing we're going to go to everything. Recon, the NHC's outlook, the models, forecast discussions, even the tone of this thread will all change dramatically. It will go from dismissing an open wave in the morning to wondering how long it will take to become a major hurricane by nighttime.

[HURAKAN]

Continues to look impressive this morning. When the speed issue is resolved, we could have a depression or storm in our hands.

[xironman]

I was trying to figure out why they start out saying

..MOVING WEST 10 KT.

Then ends with

CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH

I thought 10KT~=12MPH

[HURAKAN]

12N/61W is east of the Caribbean Sea (see my chart above). There's no low OR wave axis there, it's in the Caribbean. I wonder who wrote this?

Today will be a day of big changes. From nothing we're going to go to everything. Recon, the NHC's outlook, the models, forecast discussions, even the tone of this thread will all change dramatically. It will go from dismissing an open wave in the morning to wondering how long it will take to become a major hurricane by nighttime.

Nice speech, have you ever wondered about getting into politics!!!

[DrewFL]

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N61W...MOVING WEST
10 KT. THIS LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN WEAKENING LITTLE BY LITTLE
AND HAS BECOME AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS POINT BY
02/0900 UTC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
12N TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH.
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA AGAIN
LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY.



Who DID write this??

[skysummit]

Yea, but it looks like we may be dealing with that speed issue for a while...maybe till it's too late. Low level flow is pretty swift this morning.

Who ever wrote that disco....the initials are "MT".

[HURAKAN]

I was trying to figure out why they start out saying

..MOVING WEST 10 KT.

Then ends with

CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH

I thought 10KT~=12MPH

The TWD is wrong because the system is already at 65W.

[vaffie]

haha, thanks Hurakan, no I decided to go into biomedical research.

12N/61W is east of the Caribbean Sea (see my chart above). There's no low OR wave axis there, it's in the Caribbean. I wonder who wrote this?

Today will be a day of big changes. From nothing we're going to go to everything. Recon, the NHC's outlook, the models, forecast discussions, even the tone of this thread will all change dramatically. It will go from dismissing an open wave in the morning to wondering how long it will take to become a major hurricane by nighttime.

Nice speech, have you ever wondered about getting into politics!!!

[HURAKAN]

It says that it wa written by "MT," does anyone knows who is "MT" at the NHC?

[skysummit]

It says that it wa written by "MT," does anyone knows who is "MT" at the NHC?

Monty TooToo?