Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

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caneman

Re:

#261 Postby caneman » Thu Aug 02, 2007 7:52 am

skysummit wrote:No more bullish intensification from SHIPS 12z.


575
WHXX01 KMIA 021247
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1247 UTC THU AUG 2 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK (EP082007) 20070802 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070802 1200 070803 0000 070803 1200 070804 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 129.7W 14.1N 131.5W 14.5N 133.2W 14.8N 135.0W
BAMD 13.5N 129.7W 13.8N 131.8W 14.1N 133.7W 14.5N 135.6W
BAMM 13.5N 129.7W 13.9N 131.6W 14.2N 133.5W 14.8N 135.4W
LBAR 13.5N 129.7W 13.8N 131.8W 14.6N 134.4W 15.7N 136.9W
SHIP 30KTS 28KTS 29KTS 30KTS
DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 29KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070804 1200 070805 1200 070806 1200 070807 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 137.0W 14.3N 141.0W 13.8N 144.8W 14.1N 147.5W
BAMD 14.9N 137.4W 15.5N 141.2W 15.8N 144.5W 16.1N 147.0W
BAMM 15.1N 137.4W 15.5N 141.7W 15.6N 146.0W 15.9N 149.8W
LBAR 16.6N 139.2W 17.7N 143.4W 17.4N 147.1W 16.7N 151.5W
SHIP 33KTS 36KTS 43KTS 47KTS
DSHP 33KTS 36KTS 43KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 129.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 127.9W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.1N LONM24 = 125.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

That is EPAC
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Re:

#262 Postby Chacor » Thu Aug 02, 2007 7:53 am

Chacor wrote:

Code: Select all

765
WHXX01 KWBC 021250
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 UTC THU AUG 2 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070802 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070802  1200   070803  0000   070803  1200   070804  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.6N  65.0W   14.0N  69.6W   15.6N  74.8W   17.1N  79.7W
BAMD    12.6N  65.0W   13.3N  68.5W   14.1N  72.0W   14.9N  75.6W
BAMM    12.6N  65.0W   13.7N  69.2W   14.8N  73.6W   16.2N  78.0W
LBAR    12.6N  65.0W   13.2N  69.1W   14.1N  73.4W   15.1N  77.7W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          33KTS          40KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          33KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070804  1200   070805  1200   070806  1200   070807  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.3N  84.2W   20.1N  91.9W   21.8N  96.9W   23.7N 100.2W
BAMD    15.5N  79.4W   16.2N  86.8W   16.3N  93.6W   15.9N  99.3W
BAMM    17.3N  82.2W   19.0N  89.7W   20.4N  95.3W   21.2N  99.5W
LBAR    16.4N  81.7W   19.1N  88.7W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        47KTS          63KTS          76KTS          85KTS
DSHP        47KTS          46KTS          47KTS          30KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.6N LONCUR =  65.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  21KT
LATM12 =  12.5N LONM12 =  59.9W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 =  20KT
LATM24 =  11.8N LONM24 =  56.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


AL, 99, 2007080212, , BEST, 0, 126N, 650W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 125, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


SHIPS is still going up to 85 kt...
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#263 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 02, 2007 7:53 am

21 knots/h? That's nuts!!!
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Re: Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

#264 Postby DrewFL » Thu Aug 02, 2007 7:53 am

Whoah......that's East Pac guidance!
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Re:

#265 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 7:54 am

HURAKAN wrote:21 knots/h? That's nuts!!!


Yea right thru Mexico..Emily like storm
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Re: Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

#266 Postby skysummit » Thu Aug 02, 2007 7:55 am

LOL....sorry about that. I guess that's what I get for trying to copy and paste while driving.
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#267 Postby Aquawind » Thu Aug 02, 2007 7:56 am

Qscat with fast moving systems and numerous rain contaminated barbs often don't reflect the actual surface winds well. Don't get me wrong it has a ways to go with a open wave according to the latest obs. Funny things happen though..
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#268 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 02, 2007 7:58 am

Image

latest!
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Re:

#269 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 7:58 am

Aquawind wrote:Qscat with fast moving systems and numerous rain contaminated barbs often don't reflect the actual surface winds well. Don't get me wrong it has a ways to go with a open wave according to the latest obs. Funny things happen though..


Was just about to type the same thing as well.. Thanks for beating me to it. lol
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Re: Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

#270 Postby Stormtrack03 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:01 am

NHC says no signs of organization, I see the loop, looks like a TS already.
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#271 Postby Aquawind » Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:01 am

Hmm watching the visable loop you can see LL inflow in the SW and it does twist right up into the deep convection...hmmm
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Re: Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

#272 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:02 am

Stormtrack03 wrote:NHC says no signs of organization, I see the loop, looks like a TS already.


But, the TWO is nearly 4 hours old, too.
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Re: Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

#273 Postby drezee » Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:03 am

The low level clouds to the S of the convection are travelling W now. Travelling at 20+ mph...I would suspect that the recon will find a Tropical Storm and a deepening one at that.
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Re: Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

#274 Postby vaffie » Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:05 am

Winds at the 42059 buoy starting to pick up in the last hour--going from 15 knots to 23 knots, now with gusts to 33 knots. Still about 190 miles from the approximate center.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

Also reported a one minute windspeed of 28 knots 20 minutes ago.
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#275 Postby Aquawind » Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:10 am

Not sure when the final descision to fly Recon is made but if it's looking this good in another hour..they fly imo. I tend to think tops will warm but I do see signs of a organization in addition to just deep consolidated convection..
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Re: Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

#276 Postby Storm_Vision_Productions » Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:11 am

What a difference a couple of hours can make...
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#277 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:11 am

Moving quick but LLC seems to be forming..and forming fast..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
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Re: Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

#278 Postby Stormtrack03 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:12 am

805AM TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N61W...MOVING WEST
10 KT. THIS LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN WEAKENING LITTLE BY LITTLE
AND HAS BECOME AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS POINT BY
02/0900 UTC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
12N TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W.



Again I don't see what they are talking about, I see the opposite.
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Re: Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

#279 Postby Chacor » Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:13 am

Stormtrack03 wrote:805AM TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N61W...MOVING WEST
10 KT. THIS LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN WEAKENING LITTLE BY LITTLE
AND HAS BECOME AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS POINT BY
02/0900 UTC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
12N TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W.



Again I don't see what they are talking about, I see the opposite.


8:05AM TWD is based on 1045Z satellite. It's now 1313Z.
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#280 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:13 am

If this is just a wave, I'll be amazed.
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