Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

[sevenleft]

805AM TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N61W...MOVING WEST
10 KT. THIS LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN WEAKENING LITTLE BY LITTLE
AND HAS BECOME AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS POINT BY
02/0900 UTC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
12N TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W.



Again I don't see what they are talking about, I see the opposite.

I believe the old "circulation" has been weakening over the last 24 hours. There could be a new circulation developing underneath all that convection. HOWEVER, the convection could all be triggered by the wave, and that may be the case as you can see a huge outflow boundary moving westward in front of the convection.

[Blown Away]

Best looking open wave I have seen in a long time. I suspect a TD if it holds together.

[Aquawind]

All I see is the deepest convection and most consolidated yet. That and signs of LL inflow rotating up into the deepest convection.. Other than than obs say it's nuttin.. persistance just a little longer..,,,

[Stormtrack03]

805AM TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N61W...MOVING WEST
10 KT. THIS LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN WEAKENING LITTLE BY LITTLE
AND HAS BECOME AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS POINT BY
02/0900 UTC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
12N TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W.



Again I don't see what they are talking about, I see the opposite.

8:05AM TWD is based on 1045Z satellite. It's now 1313Z.

Thanks for the clarification, we should have TD by 5 pm or earlier.

[Blown Away]

At this point is there any reason to think this wave won't continue moving due W or WNW into Mexico??

[Meso]

That is IF it remains doing what it's doing,things can change quickly..But looking pretty :

[Aquawind]

At this point is there any reason to think this wave won't continue moving due W or WNW into Mexico??

Welp if it actually does develop and intensifies it certainly could gain more lattitude than forecast. I think it would be a relocation north from yesterdays model initialization points anyway..

[tailgater]

Remember yesterday most of us thought it was developing then also, only to see it look like nothing that same evening.

[Weatherfreak14]

Wow, I think today is the day for sure. oh and btw its dead.

[Downdraft]

I don't think we will ever just get a depression first with this system. I think we are looking at Dean right now.

[Weatherfreak14]

I rwally think we will have depression #4 by 11am? if not by that and if convection holds we will have it by 5pm for sure.

[Cyclone1]

When does recon fly?

[Sjones]

I don't think we will ever just get a depression first with this system. I think we are looking at Dean right now.

Agreed!

[El Nino]

Maybe it's allready hurricane Dean

Someone is remembering a system like that without being at least a TD ? It's enormous !

[skysummit]

I don't know about this. I believe I see outflow boundaries racing away on the southwest side. Unfortunately we still don't have clear evidence of what's going on at the surface under this blob.

[vaffie]

Maybe it's allready hurricane Dean

Someone is remembering a system like that without being at least a TD ? It's enormous !

Bit early. ha ha! But strong tropical storms can start developing eye-like features, so keep a look out.

[Fego]

First is the best looking open wave I have seen in a long time, even better than is best stage as an invest.

Right now in Puerto Rico (9:32 a.m.) is very windy and because of that very fresh .

[dwg71]

lets see if it has a LLC before we start calling it Hurricane Dean...

It has impressive convection, but can it sustain it.

[miamicanes177]

I disagree strongly with the NHC. I believe this is becoming better organized and Tropical Storm Dean is forming right now.

[Lowpressure]

Let's not get caught up with appearance only. It does appear to have some rotation at the lower levels to the southern portion of the system. Caution against jumping to conclusions here. It looks ominous, but it also looks like a giant thunderstorm complex currently. By the time recon arrives, it is quite possible to have a depression, but no cane yet, not even close.