Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

[Cyclone1]

I disagree strongly with the NHC. I believe this is becoming better organized and Tropical Storm Dean is forming right now.

It may be, and the NHC may think so, too. Remember the TWO is 4 hours old.

[Ivanhater]

omg...just woke up..first thing I saw was "weakening"...i was about to get ticked..then i saw it! looks good! with that kind of convection...a low is bound to form!

[bvigal]

TCFA has just been reissued!

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 021300Z AUG 07//
WTNT 01 KNGU 021300
REF/A/GENADMIN/NAVLANTMETOCCEN//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 61.5W TO 14.6N 68.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. REMARKS: A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE LESSER
ANTILLIES CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND REMAINS
SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA INDICATE WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS AND
A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010.0MB. WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BUT WILL BECOME
UNFAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL
ENHANCE THE SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, EXPIRE, OR CANCELLED
BY 031300Z AUG 2007.//

[Fego]

Btw, NHC must change the floater, right now the open wave_invest is getting out of sight.

[El Nino]

Right IH. Me too. When I saw "weakening", I was disapointed. And then I saw this thing !

Btw, when I was talking about a cane, I was not serious. I think we get a TD, maybe a borderline TS.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes folks, is all coming together as I expected. It just need that "spark" that is all. It had good structure all along and environmental conditions have been favorable.

If this thing is truly "deepening" than again, NW Caribbean bound it may seem. I don't like the westrunner idea and I expect models will shift north....don't forget that TUTT low off to the west that will help keep it form going westbound but models are typically not good with TUTT lows.

I will say this again...interests along the SE Coast of the US should closely monitor this system. I'm still calling for a potent system out of this...

[Ivanhater]

TCFA has just been reissued!

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 021300Z AUG 07//
WTNT 01 KNGU 021300
REF/A/GENADMIN/NAVLANTMETOCCEN//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 61.5W TO 14.6N 68.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. REMARKS: A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE LESSER
ANTILLIES CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND REMAINS
SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA INDICATE WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS AND
A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010.0MB. WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BUT WILL BECOME
UNFAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL
ENHANCE THE SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, EXPIRE, OR CANCELLED
BY 031300Z AUG 2007.//

hmmm...

[Weatherfreak14]

TCFA has just been reissued!

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 021300Z AUG 07//
WTNT 01 KNGU 021300
REF/A/GENADMIN/NAVLANTMETOCCEN//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 61.5W TO 14.6N 68.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. REMARKS: A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE LESSER
ANTILLIES CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND REMAINS
SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA INDICATE WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS AND
A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010.0MB. WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BUT WILL BECOME
UNFAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL
ENHANCE THE SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, EXPIRE, OR CANCELLED
BY 031300Z AUG 2007.//

Well the shear is favorible now but its supposed to become unfavorible, i thought shear was supposed to be lessening in the next couple of days.

[Weatherfreak14]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes folks, is all coming together as I expected. It just need that "spark" that is all. It had good structure all along and environmental conditions have been favorable.

If this thing is truly "deepening" than again, NW Caribbean bound it may seem. I don't like the westrunner idea and I expect models will shift north....don't forget that TUTT low off to the west that will help keep it form going westbound but models are typically not good with TUTT lows.

I will say this again...interests along the SE Coast of the US should closely monitor this system. I'm still calling for a potent system out of this...

I have been agreeing on this scenario the whole time.

[El Nino]

I was just thinking : Dean is a mixture of Dennis and Jeanne. So ... another unpredictable system ?

[Derek Ortt]

I see absolutely no organization with this system. There is no LLC and very little surface convergence. I would be shocked if the convection does not collapse within the next few hours and recon should NOT fly today as it is clear based upon the data (and no, pretty IR imagery does not cut it) that this is a mere open wave, and a fairly weak one at that in terms of the surface wind shift.

Looks like I will have the time to get my final chest x-ray from my pneumonia from a couple of months ago today as the GOM is also disorganized this morning

[tgenius]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes folks, is all coming together as I expected. It just need that "spark" that is all. It had good structure all along and environmental conditions have been favorable.

If this thing is truly "deepening" than again, NW Caribbean bound it may seem. I don't like the westrunner idea and I expect models will shift north....don't forget that TUTT low off to the west that will help keep it form going westbound but models are typically not good with TUTT lows.

I will say this again...interests along the SE Coast of the US should closely monitor this system. I'm still calling for a potent system out of this...

Let's not play around with this gatorcane.. I'm going up to Sea World on Sunday and the thing I would most like to NOT see is have my vacation plans ruined due to the "threat" of a storm...

[cpdaman]

does anyone see signs from the last few hours satelite's that a center relocation further west may have occured.

[Chacor]

I see some yellow, which is rare for the Atlantic...

[Weatherfreak14]

does anyone see signs from the last few hours satelite's that a center relocation further west may have occured.

for right now it looks to be more north and west.

[RL3AO]

Good morning. I see convection but is there an LLC?

[DESTRUCTION5]

I see absolutely no organization with this system. There is no LLC and very little surface convergence. I would be shocked if the convection does not collapse within the next few hours and recon should NOT fly today as it is clear based upon the data (and no, pretty IR imagery does not cut it) that this is a mere open wave, and a fairly weak one at that in terms of the surface wind shift.

Looks like I will have the time to get my final chest x-ray from my pneumonia from a couple of months ago today as the GOM is also disorganized this morning

Come on Derek..Tell us how you really feel..LOL

[miamicanes177]

I see absolutely no organization with this system. There is no LLC and very little surface convergence. I would be shocked if the convection does not collapse within the next few hours and recon should NOT fly today as it is clear based upon the data (and no, pretty IR imagery does not cut it) that this is a mere open wave, and a fairly weak one at that in terms of the surface wind shift.

Looks like I will have the time to get my final chest x-ray from my pneumonia from a couple of months ago today as the GOM is also disorganized this morning

Let's see what the guys from the NHC say on their next TWO due out in 1 hour. I believe in fact the storm is better organized and is responding with a vengeance to a very favorable environment. I will also be shocked if recon does not fly.

[El Nino]

I see some yellow, which is rare for the Atlantic...

This thing looks like a fish ...

[Cyclone1]

I just heard the word INVEST for the first time ever in history on TWC. Go Nicole!