Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

[Cyclone1]

As far as I'm concerned, recon ought to be cancelled today for both this and the mess in the Gulf.

Im going to have to ask you to stay positive...even if you do have comcast

LOL, I love inside jokes.

[Ivanhater]

haaa..

[windstorm99]

I really doupt recon will be cancelled with this convection going...

[skysummit]

I'm seeing a warming in the cloud tops again.

[HURAKAN]

I'm seeing a warming in the cloud tops again.

If there is no LLC and no convergence, diurnal maximum and then a wane of the t-storms is what should be expected.

[Ivanhater]

I'm seeing a warming in the cloud tops again.

what is interesting is the lapse time of the pulses...for the 1st time it is able to hold on to the convection bigger and longer...that could only help

[Chacor]

I'll repeat - TCPOD today made no mention of a cancellation for recon on 99L today.

[SouthFloridawx]

883
NOUS42 KNHC 021415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT THU 02 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-071

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 03/1600Z
B. AFXXX 03DDA INVEST
C. 02/1330Z
D. 14.5N 74.0W
E. 03/1500Z TO 03/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.


JWP

[bvigal]

Seems I keep posting on an "old" page - sorry! You guys are too fast for my DSL!

OK, so I'll ask again - why did they at 9:30am this morning re-issue the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert? Remember this?

TCFA CRITERIA LIST
SFC GRADIENT
3 A Circulation is evident in the wind field
6 A Circulation has been evident for 24 hours
3 Westerly SFC/Gradient level wind of at least 5 kts, is south of the tropical disturbance and within five degrees of the center.
2 Any wind associated with cloud system center is at least 20 kts
3 Any wind associated with cloud system center is at least 25 kts
4 Any wind associated with cloud system center is at least 30 kts
3 24 hour pressure decrease at nearby station (within five degrees) equals 2 MB
4 24 hour pressure decrease at nearby station (within five degrees) equals 3 MB
2 Estimated MSLP of disturbance is < 1014 MB
3 Estimated MSLP of disturbance is < 1012 MB
4 Estimated MSLP of disturbance is < 1010 MB
500 MB
2 There is evidence of at least a trough
3 There is evidence of a closed circulation
200 MB
2 Longwave or major shortwave trough to the northwest of the tropical disturbance
4 Evidence of an anticyclone over the center of the tropical disturbance.
3 200MB wind over cloud system center < 25 kts
SST
3 SST 26 C or higher
SATELLITE
DATA
3 The tropical disturbance has persisted for at least 24 hours.
4 The tropical disturbance has persisted for at least 48 hours
5 The tropical disturbance has persisted for at least 72 hours
3 DVORAK classification of T 1.0
Issue TCFA! DVORAK classification of T 1.5 from all agencies
MISCELLANEOUS
3 Cloud system center is north of 5 degrees latitude.
5 Tropical disturbance is within 72 hours of a DOD resource.
2 Cloud system center and satellite fix are consistent in location (within 2 degrees)
1 20 knot synoptic reports within convective cloud pattern of disturbance.
ADD UP THE POINTS. IF VALUE IS 35 OR GREATER, ISSUE THE TCFA!!!

[x-y-no]

As far as I'm concerned, recon ought to be cancelled today for both this and the mess in the Gulf.

Im going to have to ask you to stay positive...even if you do have comcast

Heh ...

Well thank God I don't have Comcast at work.

OK, maybe recon is justified today on 99L, although I'll be surprised if they find an LLC given this morning's QuikScat pass.

[HURAKAN]

latest!

[Chacor]

Seems I keep posting on an "old" page - sorry! You guys are too fast for my DSL!

<snip>

It's not difficult to get 35 points even without a closed circulation, given this thing's pressure and how long it's lasted.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Key here is if it slows it Goes..Thats is the only inhibiting factor ATM...

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like it has good outflow...

[Ivanhater]

As far as I'm concerned, recon ought to be cancelled today for both this and the mess in the Gulf.

Im going to have to ask you to stay positive...even if you do have comcast

Heh ...

Well thank God I don't have Comcast at work.

OK, maybe recon is justified today on 99L, although I'll be surprised if they find an LLC given this morning's QuikScat pass.

...I doubt they will find anything either...but I think a low might try to form during the day

[HURAKAN]

So is RECON cancelled or not?

[SouthFloridawx]

So is RECON cancelled or not?

No, it's not canceled.

[SouthFloridawx]

Is it the 10:30 or 11:30 we're waiting for?

[vaffie]

Seems I keep posting on an "old" page - sorry! You guys are too fast for my DSL!OK, so I'll ask again - why did they at 9:30am this morning re-issue the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert? Remember this?

TCFA CRITERIA LIST
SFC GRADIENT
3 A Circulation is evident in the wind field
6 A Circulation has been evident for 24 hours
3 Westerly SFC/Gradient level wind of at least 5 kts, is south of the tropical disturbance and within five degrees of the center.
2 Any wind associated with cloud system center is at least 20 kts
3 Any wind associated with cloud system center is at least 25 kts
4 Any wind associated with cloud system center is at least 30 kts YES
3 24 hour pressure decrease at nearby station (within five degrees) equals 2 MB
4 24 hour pressure decrease at nearby station (within five degrees) equals 3 MB YES
2 Estimated MSLP of disturbance is < 1014 MB
3 Estimated MSLP of disturbance is < 1012 MB
4 Estimated MSLP of disturbance is < 1010 MB YES
500 MB
2 There is evidence of at least a trough
3 There is evidence of a closed circulation
200 MB
2 Longwave or major shortwave trough to the northwest of the tropical disturbance
4 Evidence of an anticyclone over the center of the tropical disturbance. YES
3 200MB wind over cloud system center < 25 kts YES
SST
3 SST 26 C or higher YES
SATELLITE
DATA
3 The tropical disturbance has persisted for at least 24 hours.
4 The tropical disturbance has persisted for at least 48 hours
5 The tropical disturbance has persisted for at least 72 hours YES
3 DVORAK classification of T 1.0 YES
Issue TCFA! DVORAK classification of T 1.5 from all agencies
MISCELLANEOUS
3 Cloud system center is north of 5 degrees latitude. YES
5 Tropical disturbance is within 72 hours of a DOD resource.
2 Cloud system center and satellite fix are consistent in location (within 2 degrees) YES
1 20 knot synoptic reports within convective cloud pattern of disturbance. YES
ADD UP THE POINTS. IF VALUE IS 35 OR GREATER, ISSUE THE TCFA!!!

[skysummit]

Is it the 10:30 or 11:30 we're waiting for?

Depends on which time zone you're in LOL

Nah....the TWO should be out in about 45 minutes or so.