Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow, I am surprised yet again when I look at it this morning. It actually looks decent! That is a pretty big ball of convection, and if it can persist and if a LLC is under it (or forms under it), then we may have trouble.

[Chacor]

<snip>

I already replied to that, I just snipped out the post. Can we please not quote long posts?

[SouthFloridawx]

Is it the 10:30 or 11:30 we're waiting for?

Depends on which time zone you're in LOL
Nah....the TWO should be out in about 45 minutes or so.

Ahh... blond moment. I swear to god I thought it should have been out at 1030, 530 & 1030.

Ok time for another cup of coffee.

[Steve H.]

Its beginning to get that Claudette look to it. Cloud tops are warming a bit, but it may be 'trying' to get a closed off circulation at the surface. If this thing slows a bit, look out

[gatorcane]

Looks like a big fireball that has blown up in the Caribbean - I would be sending RECON in ASAP because its hard to tell what is going on underneath that ball of convection...

[MiamiensisWx]

Okay... I could be incorrect, but I think we should observe decreasing upper-level shear ahead of 99L. You can see the ridge "building" westward as the hostile trough moves northward. Look at this loop. This system is poorly organized, but I think conditions are slowly becoming more conducive. I think this scenario is a classic case: a persistent system fails to develop for several days, but it eventually gets its act together. The strong low-level to mid-level gradient between the subtropical high and 99L is the main problem - it has kept 99L on a fast forward movement while the system fails to develop a LLC. That factor inhibits convective consolidation, too. I think shear will decrease - the key factor depends upon the pressure gradient. Can it decrease within the next few days? Time will tell the tale. I'm offering my thoughts. What do you think?

[gatorcane]

how does that TUTT low off to the west of 99L factor into your analysis?

Its going to start impacting 99L as 99L is getting closer to it....very similar to Ernesto's situation last year in my opinion.

[HURAKAN]

Latest!!!

[skysummit]

Well, that image just gives it an elongated look. Why don't you use the hurricane sector instead?

[gatorcane]

How about this one. Houston we have a problem, its nearly the size of Florida already.

[MiamiensisWx]

how does that TUTT low off to the west of 99L factor into your analysis?

Its going to start impacting 99L as 99L is getting closer to it....very similar to Ernesto's situation last year in my opinion.

That weak low appears to have been weakening - I suspect that trend will commence as the low-level flow pushes the system to the west. I doubt it will adversely affect 99L's organization, unless a strong easterly surge via the tight gradient increases 99L's forward motion.

Can anyone offer their thoughts on the shear? I posted my analysis.

[windstorm99]

Another view...

[SouthFloridawx]

[bvigal]

Seems I keep posting on an "old" page - sorry! You guys are too fast for my DSL!

<snip>

It's not difficult to get 35 points even without a closed circulation, given this thing's pressure and how long it's lasted.

Don't get me wrong, I have my own doubts about this, it's moving too fast, approaching shear, and tops are dropping... OK, so if I understand this correctly, there is not necessarily a correlation between meeting the TCFA criteria and being considered potential for development, or worthy of recon, right? I'd say they need to alter the criteria, because it is confusing. Why have such a system that alerts to possible formation, when NHC uses other data that convinces them otherwise?

[jasons2k]

Instead of focusing so much on how much red shows up in the IR shots look at the organization on the visibles, etc. It's nothing more than a disorganized open wave that blew-up some convection overnight. Until either 1) the convection can persist or 2) a LLC can form - it's nothing to get overly concerned about, esp. with all that shear in front of it.

Sorry for ranting, but I'm just now catching up and I've had to scroll through a dozen pages of calling this a TD or Dean and saying stuff like "if this isn't upgraded the equipment is faulty" and whatnot. It's just getting to the point where one looking for information has to scroll through 5 pages of chat to find one pertinent post.

[Weatherfreak14]

Cloud tops still pretty cold to me, at least in the northern part of the convection, seems to be more convection building a little.

[HURAKAN]

Just for reference and because it's interesting, part of the first discussion on Claudette:

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAS A MESS OF
CONFLICTING SIGNALS TODAY. ON ONE SIDE...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE
WAS THAT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM...WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AS HIGH AS 45 KT FROM TAFB. ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...WHICH MADE SEVERAL PASSES THROUGH THE
APPARENT CENTER AND FOUND NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. JUST AS THE PLANE
WAS LEAVING THE AREA AT 18Z IT FOUND 20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...
INDICATING A POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND PRESSURES OF
1006-1007 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE WAVE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE. THE 45 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
57 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...15.0 N... 71.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 29 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

[dwg71]

Convection will be on the decrease, and you will see that its far from Hurricane Dean at the moment.

[fci]

My eyes are not trained professionally but looking at the size and persistence of this area would warrant recon. In my opinion.

This area looks better than many "non-designated" areas of disturbed weather than I have seen in a long time.

I think this will be a TD and eventually TS Dean over time and then a NW Carib threat.

[SouthFloridawx]

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