Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

[jrod]

My guess is it might be moving too fast for any west winds. It is funny how the convection blows up as it enters a less favorable enviroment.

[astrosbaseball22]

winds are 25 gusting to 34 from a buoy

[HURAKAN]

TWD 805: "THIS LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN WEAKENING LITTLE BY LITTLE
AND HAS BECOME AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS POINT BY
02/0900 UTC."

TWO 1130: "SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA."

You guys need to get together and decide whether you kill the low or you mention the low, but don't do this!!!

Then you hear in TV and we get mad, "The disturbance in the Eastern Caribbean is accompanied by an area of low pressure." But that's what the NHC's saying.

[Aquawind]

Rising pressure nearby..15.01 N 67.5 W

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059

[Meso]

lol.. Okay it's been said before by some. But I am really normally quite optimistic with storms.But this isn't something to really be "omg" over.Early this morning it was called an open wave.And just because it has a nice look to it (the convection) it might not even have a LLC,and if there isn't then no TD or TS...It's not going to suddenly become a hurricane or anything.And with conditions becoming less favourable it has limited time to do what it's planning on doing,which very well might be nothing.Unless you have surface obs you can't jump to conclusions,but just from the way this system has been acting,my vote is against recon finding a TD.I'm not saying it won't happen.. I'm just saying it's very possible that it won't.Just a dose or reality :S

[Weatherfreak14]

lol.. Okay it's been said before by some. But I am really normally quite optimistic with storms.But this isn't something to really be "omg" over.Early this morning it was called an open wave.And just because it has a nice look to it (the convection) it might not even have a LLC,and if there isn't then no TD or TS...It's not going to suddenly become a hurricane or anything.And with conditions becoming less favourable it has limited time to do what it's planning on doing,which very well might be nothing.Unless you have surface obs you can't jump to conclusions,but just from the way this system has been acting,my vote is against recon finding a TD.I'm not saying it won't happen.. I'm just saying it's very possible that it won't.Just a dose or reality :S

I agree with you meso, but conditions seems to be somewhat unfavorible for development ahead of it, on the sat it looks that the shear is lessining, if this is going to develop though, it needs to slow down, then we may have something, althoough i do agree it looks impressive right now, for a WAVE.

[Dionne]

The "wave" does look impressive.....but the pressure at buoy 42059 has been rising all morning. I wonder if the data from the buoy is correct?

[vaffie]

Surface winds being estimated at 55 mph right now at 15.57N, 65.53W, still a fair way away from the center.

[skysummit]

Well, judgement day is here...reconn in route.

[CrazyC83]

Surface winds being estimated at 55 mph right now at 15.57N, 65.53W, still a fair way away from the center.

That means it is TS Dean if a LLC is found...

[Ivanhater]

hmm...I cant wait to find out whats going on under there!

[Weatherfreak14]

hmm...I cant wait to find out whats going on under there!

The pressure is so intense...LOL anywaz yes it would be TS dean if a LLC is found, which IMO ihink they will find one, mostly likely to be a weak LLC.

[RL3AO]

Surface winds being estimated at 55 mph right now at 15.57N, 65.53W, still a fair way away from the center.

That means it is TS Dean if a LLC is found...

WOW! What is the strongest anyone has seen for a first advisory?

[El Nino]

I wouldn't understand how it could be possible not to have at least a TD if there's a 55 mph gust !

[RL3AO]

I wouldn't understand how it could be possible not to have at least a TD if there's a 55 mph gust !

A lot of convection.

[astrosbaseball22]

I wouldn't understand how it could be possible not to have at least a TD if there's a 55 mph gust !

beacuse theres no closed center

[DESTRUCTION5]

Whole new ball game comapred to yesterday wind wise..anyway

[gatorcane]

as I expected they have decided to send RECON in...and conditions are becoming less favorable because of the TUTT low that is rapidly approaching.....

I showed the ULL winds earlier and you can see what I mean....

no surprises with this update.

[CrazyC83]

Dean or no Dean, this could be an ugly system for parts of the Caribbean. Didn't a tropical wave in Haiti kill like 2,000 people in June 2004?

[astrosbaseball22]

Whole new ball game comapred to yesterday wind wise..anyway

winds are higher right?