Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

[El Nino]

Dean or no Dean, this could be an ugly system for parts of the Caribbean. Didn't a tropical wave in Haiti kill like 2,000 people in June 2004?

It was Jeanne.

[Dionne]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/


Check out the convection.....it's a big "wave".....

[Cyclone1]

Dean or no Dean, this could be an ugly system for parts of the Caribbean. Didn't a tropical wave in Haiti kill like 2,000 people in June 2004?

It was Jeanne.

Nope, there was a wave in May that killed like 2000 people.

[mgpetre]

While we are waiting for TS Dean or nothing to show up, I was looking for long-term satellite observances for the Atlantic basin and found this NASA video. Many of you may have seen it, but for those of us who hadn't, it is incredibly enlightening as to the strange things that happen during the spinup of these things. At the least it's entertaining while we wait:

http://learners.gsfc.nasa.gov/mediaviewer/27storms/

My opinion is we will have at the very least a depression today.

[RL3AO]

Right now, it can't be a depression. Its a storm, or its a wave.

[astrosbaseball22]

Right now, it can't be a depression. Its a storm, or its a wave.

and that is beacuse of the 55mph winds?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Once past 75ºW, or less than 2 days, it gets past the strongest low level Easterlies, so it should slow down, and have a better chance of organizing.

[Weatherfreak14]

It looks now that the whole system is moving more north right now, but still WNW, anyone notice this? or is it just me?

[dwg71]

It looks now that the whole system is moving more north right now, but still WNW, anyone notice this? or is it just me?

Its just the movement of the convection, its moving W or just north of due west... but with no LLC its hard to really track anything.

[Ptarmigan]

I would not be surprised that Invest 99L will form into something tropical.

[vaffie]

estimated surface wind of 45 mph from the north. plane starting to descend. pressure data soon.

[weatherguru18]

Anybody notice how the computer models have slowly but surely inched northward?

[astrosbaseball22]

hmm 45 mph..

[jrod]

I only have 30 minutes before I have to go, I hope I can see some data before I run off.

[SouthFloridawx]

Anybody notice how the computer models have slowly but surely inched northward?

Well without a well defined, LLC and accurate data input... I wouldn't really bet the house on that model output. Let's see what happens in the next couple of hours as they get better, more accurate data input and see what we're dealing with.

It could still be an open wave, we'll have to see what the west winds are taking into account forward speed.

[dwg71]

I see possible spin around 13.5n 66W

[jrod]

You can see the northen edge on the San Juan radar.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[El Nino]

hmm 45 mph..

39 knots. If we have W wind, we have Dean.

[Ivanhater]

I see possible spin around 13.5n 66W

Ya I saw that..Im not sure its at the surface tho...

[vaffie]

plane descending quickly. estimated surface pressure 999 mb--awaiting more data to confirm such a low pressure.