Invest 99L Thread #6

[alan1961]

I think there is some sort of circulation under that mess somewhere on the central south side.

[RL3AO]

You guys might want to add another server or 4 before we get a real system in the Atlantic.

[Sanibel]

Disclaimer: This is my opinion and has nothing to do with our hosts at Storm2k. (And I'm usually wrong lol)


This is a toughy because we have seen "skipping" storms not register a west wind in this east caribbean zone before as they pass through on the strong Atlantic tradewinds. The storm is fully cyclogenetic (big word there), it just isn't registering because of its forward speed. In light of this I believe the 999 pressure - BUT - this is the first system to beat the 2007 unfavorability in the area. So, we could see a storm form, but only max out at category 1 or so. However, shear has slackened ahead of it in untapped warm waters.

The key here is maintenance of convection while in the "zone". Since we have already had a dud maintain convection and curvature in this area we have to take caution in estimates of strength - However it is possible it just needed to get over the 'hump' and tap surface energy. It is really hard to tell? All bets off if it moves slowly over the Gulf with little shear.

[mgpetre]

Are the models showing any development yet? IMHO this thing only has two routes which will keep it from ever becoming a storm (staying low latitude and streaking off to the EPac which is looking less likely, or getting torn apart as it gets pushed onto Jamaica and Cuba) Otherwise I see this storm at the latest forming by the time it's near the Yucatan and at the earliest when it slows down by tomorrow afternoon. Other opinions? I see a squeeze play happening here that will keep it on track for the Yucatan and Southern Texas if things don't change drastically in coming days, and one thing we Texans have learned this summer is that the current weather patterns seem to be persistant (as have the people in GA, CA, ID, etc..., so much of the same weather in the same place.) So I'm making a long term projection based on some intuition and based on some science. Anyone else dare do this? I figure we might as well do something while the storm is still pretty much sleeping.

My prediction:
TS Status by tomorrow evening 2100Z 300 miles SSW of Kingston
Remains Strong TS until crossing Yucatan on Sat at 1100Z
Enters GOM and becomes CAT3 Hurricane by Sun at 1200Z
US Landfall near Corpus Christi by Tuesday morning around 100Z

**These are just some very lowly educated guesses! Please do not take heed of my words, I just enjoy these boards and would like to know what others guess might happen in this particular case. I don't mind eating crow, but I would never want to alarm anyone about what is currently just a moderate tropical wave that could dissipate within the next day.

[skysummit]

Well Holy Cow that's a first! A forecast for a major hurricane hitting Corpus Christi.

Welcome mgpetre....where are you located?

[astrosbaseball22]

Are the models showing any development yet? IMHO this thing only has two routes which will keep it from ever becoming a storm (staying low latitude and streaking off to the EPac which is looking less likely, or getting torn apart as it gets pushed onto Jamaica and Cuba) Otherwise I see this storm at the latest forming by the time it's near the Yucatan and at the earliest when it slows down by tomorrow afternoon. Other opinions? I see a squeeze play happening here that will keep it on track for the Yucatan and Southern Texas if things don't change drastically in coming days, and one thing we Texans have learned this summer is that the current weather patterns seem to be persistant (as have the people in GA, CA, ID, etc..., so much of the same weather in the same place.) So I'm making a long term projection based on some intuition and based on some science. Anyone else dare do this? I figure we might as well do something while the storm is still pretty much sleeping.

My prediction:
TS Status by tomorrow evening 2100Z 300 miles SSW of Kingston
Remains Strong TS until crossing Yucatan on Sat at 1100Z
Enters GOM and becomes CAT3 Hurricane by Sun at 1200Z
US Landfall near Corpus Christi by Tuesday morning around 100Z

**These are just some very lowly educated guesses! Please do not take heed of my words, I just enjoy these boards and would like to know what others guess might happen in this particular case. I don't mind eating crow, but I would never want to alarm anyone about what is currently just a moderate tropical wave that could dissipate within the next day.

what would a cat 3 do to htown

[Chris_in_Tampa]

The 999mb I think should be suspect. (but I am trying to find out) The dew point was suspect at the time the 999mb observations were suspect. The dew point was only suspect at that time. The pressure around those values was rather stable at the time. The altitude was not changing though.

[dwg71]

Thats quite a forecast and would really shock a lot of people. The only thing I question is why do you think the low riding storm is becoming "less likely"?

[Frank2]

Only easterly winds so far - here are Jeff's plain-language obs:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/hurri ... =recco.txt

[StormScanWx]

Has the TCFA been reissued? I think it has but I may be wrong, 1300Z on the 2nd?

[Aric Dunn]

RADAR out the Netherlands's show vert well pronounced Mid level circ

http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp#

then click on CAPPI

or PPI

[thetraveler]

Well Holy Cow that's a first! A forecast for a major hurricane hitting Corpus Christi.

Welcome mgpetre....where are you located?

I will make my first prediction of the year and say Corpus.

[Aric Dunn]

anyone notice that the NOAA satellite loops as SST's overlays now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

[TexWx]

I noticed that.. great addition...

btw, did anyone see that meteor or UFO shoot across the bottom of that loop?

[mgpetre]

Thats quite a forecast and would really shock a lot of people. The only thing I question is why do you think the low riding storm is becoming "less likely"?

I've watched these things for some time, but I am totally a newbie at making thought out predictions. I just see the a little shear ahead of it and a weakening of the easterlies if it gets a little further north. That blob in front of it makes me think it will slow as it gets south of Jamaica and if it gets any spin it will start to trek north. If it remains as it is, I honestly think it will just go to the E Pac. Just my lesser educated two cents.

[Agua]

Well Holy Cow that's a first! A forecast for a major hurricane hitting Corpus Christi.

Welcome mgpetre....where are you located?

I will make my first prediction of the year and say Corpus.

[Sanibel]

RADAR out the Netherlands's show vert well pronounced Mid level circ

Radar can be deceiving at that distance. I put the "center" in that image at around the "200" ring on the radar. This is pretty far south which makes me worry about a Charley-like deep run and turn straight north and into the GOM if it slows down. But we are still way too early on this. A weak system could just scoot over to Yucatan on the low level steering current if it fails to develop deeply. But you have to worry about where it goes from there if GOM is low shear and primed.

[Aric Dunn]

I noticed that.. great addition...

btw, did anyone see that meteor or UFO shoot across the bottom of that loop?

are you serious .. lol that is the sun reflection off the water

[mgpetre]

Well Holy Cow that's a first! A forecast for a major hurricane hitting Corpus Christi.

Welcome mgpetre....where are you located?

I just moved to Houston from Birmingham. I'm a long time fan of meteorology and neural networks, but very new to many of the terms used here and by no means should my opinions be taken as anything more than just barely educated guesses as to what might happen. I just figure that the main reason many of us are here is to take stabs at what might happen, the chaos of weather is the fun of weather.

[CrazyC83]

Not even close to a LLC yet though...