Invest 99L Thread #6

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#41 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:42 pm

Sanibel wrote:
RADAR out the Netherlands's show vert well pronounced Mid level circ



Radar can be deceiving at that distance. I put the "center" in that image at around the "200" ring on the radar. This is pretty far south which makes me worry about a Charley-like deep run and turn straight north and into the GOM if it slows down. But we are still way too early on this. A weak system could just scoot over to Yucatan on the low level steering current if it fails to develop deeply. But you have to worry about where it goes from there if GOM is low shear and primed.



its all mid level at that range .. radar beams up higher in the air
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TexWx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 370
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: Pearland, Texas
Contact:
Contact TexWx

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#42 Postby TexWx » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:42 pm

c'mon now.

that's why I put the :lol: face
0 likes   
Top
mgpetre
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 149
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 11:20 pm

Re: Re:

#43 Postby mgpetre » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:43 pm

Agua wrote:
thetraveler wrote:
skysummit wrote:Well Holy Cow that's a first! A forecast for a major hurricane hitting Corpus Christi.

Welcome mgpetre....where are you located?


I will make my first prediction of the year and say Corpus. :roll:

:roflmao:


OK, so you're laughing, what do you say? Is this thing just gonna fizzle?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
punkyg
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 770
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2007 7:37 pm
Location: sanford florida

#44 Postby punkyg » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:43 pm

I just went to wunderground and saw for 99L they now have the wind speed at 35mph

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#45 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:44 pm

TexWx wrote:c'mon now.

that's why I put the :lol: face


ok good .. you scared me :lol: :lol: :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#46 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:46 pm

Image

The magic of Google Earth.
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#47 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:46 pm

nice outflow boundary just came out of the clump of storms... should see them decrease fairly quickly
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#48 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:46 pm

Ahh, don't want to be a spoil sport - but let's keep the "chat" stuff down.


I think anything that shows such good convection and curvature in the east caribbean should be taken seriously once it arrives in the west caribbean and slows down. Someone showed us an SST chart of the caribbean and it is much hotter than 2005.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

Re:

#49 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:47 pm

punkyg wrote:I just went to wunderground and saw for 99L they now have the wind speed at 35mph

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/


TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1838 UTC THU AUG 2 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070802 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070802 1800 070803 0600 070803 1800 070804 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 67.0W 14.6N 71.6W 16.3N 76.6W 17.6N 81.5W
BAMD 13.0N 67.0W 13.9N 70.4W 14.8N 74.0W 15.8N 77.8W
BAMM 13.0N 67.0W 14.1N 71.1W 15.6N 75.4W 16.8N 79.9W
LBAR 13.0N 67.0W 13.6N 71.1W 14.6N 75.5W 15.7N 79.9W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 44KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 44KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070804 1800 070805 1800 070806 1800 070807 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 85.8W 20.6N 93.2W 22.5N 97.8W 24.2N 101.0W
BAMD 16.6N 81.6W 17.7N 89.1W 17.9N 95.5W 17.4N 100.8W
BAMM 18.0N 84.0W 19.8N 91.4W 21.3N 96.6W 22.0N 100.6W
LBAR 17.2N 84.0W 20.2N 90.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 60KTS 73KTS 82KTS 89KTS
DSHP 60KTS 45KTS 54KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 67.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 22KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 62.2W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 24KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 58.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
0 likes   
Top
Windsurfer_NYC
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 233
Joined: Wed Jun 07, 2006 3:27 pm
Location: New York, NY

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#50 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:50 pm

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1838 UTC THU AUG 2 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070802 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070802  1800   070803  0600   070803  1800   070804  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.0N  67.0W   14.6N  71.6W   16.3N  76.6W   17.6N  81.5W
BAMD    13.0N  67.0W   13.9N  70.4W   14.8N  74.0W   15.8N  77.8W
BAMM    13.0N  67.0W   14.1N  71.1W   15.6N  75.4W   16.8N  79.9W
LBAR    13.0N  67.0W   13.6N  71.1W   14.6N  75.5W   15.7N  79.9W
SHIP        30KTS          38KTS          44KTS          52KTS
DSHP        30KTS          38KTS          44KTS          52KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070804  1800   070805  1800   070806  1800   070807  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.7N  85.8W   20.6N  93.2W   22.5N  97.8W   24.2N 101.0W
BAMD    16.6N  81.6W   17.7N  89.1W   17.9N  95.5W   17.4N 100.8W
BAMM    18.0N  84.0W   19.8N  91.4W   21.3N  96.6W   22.0N 100.6W
LBAR    17.2N  84.0W   20.2N  90.7W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        60KTS          73KTS          82KTS          89KTS
DSHP        60KTS          45KTS          54KTS          29KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.0N LONCUR =  67.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  22KT
LATM12 =  12.6N LONM12 =  62.2W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 =  24KT
LATM24 =  12.1N LONM24 =  58.1W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2872
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#51 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:51 pm

Six threads for an invest? :eek: :lol:

Could this slow down at some point?
0 likes   
Top
mgpetre
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 149
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 11:20 pm

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#52 Postby mgpetre » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:52 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Six threads for an invest? :eek: :lol:

Could this slow down at some point?


The forum volume or the future Dean?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

#53 Postby jasons2k » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:53 pm

I had posted this during the crash:

In total there are 316 users online :: 104 registered, 10 hidden and 202 guests
Most users ever online was 434 on Sun Aug 28, 2005 3:02 pm

Craziness!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#54 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 02, 2007 2:00 pm

Image

99L from July 30th to August 2nd.
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38106
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

Re:

#55 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 02, 2007 2:01 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

99L from July 30th to August 2nd.


It looks better each day.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Shawee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 103
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 12:14 am
Location: New Orleans
Contact:
Contact Shawee

#56 Postby Shawee » Thu Aug 02, 2007 2:01 pm

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

intensity estimates are all over board... i vote for a mexican coast rain event.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#57 Postby x-y-no » Thu Aug 02, 2007 2:01 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:nice outflow boundary just came out of the clump of storms... should see them decrease fairly quickly


Yeah, cloud tops warming fast except for one little burst on the backside of the disturbance.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2872
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#58 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Aug 02, 2007 2:02 pm

mgpetre wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:Six threads for an invest? :eek: :lol:

Could this slow down at some point?


The forum volume or the future Dean?



Future Dean. I'm not sure the forum volume will slow down anytime soon, especially if this becomes Dean. :wink:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#59 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 02, 2007 2:03 pm

I give up on this storm...next!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

Re: Re:

#60 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 02, 2007 2:04 pm

Brent wrote:It looks better each day.


The same reaction I had. Damn you missing LLC!!!
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bobbyh83, Jonny, kenayers, Kludge, riapal and 41 guests