Invest 99L Thread #6

[HURAKAN]

I give up on this storm...next!

You can't give up when the game is getting better than ever. When has this system been so close to being upgraded?

[Ivanhater]

I give up on this storm...next!

You can't give up when the game is getting better than ever. When has this system been so close to being upgraded?

Its so frustrating!

[HURAKAN]

I give up on this storm...next!

You can't give up when the game is getting better than ever. When has this system been so close to being upgraded?

Its so frustrating!

I have already learned how to cope with it. You can't get frustrating in a waiting game!!!

[AnnularCane]

I'm not giving up on him until there isn't anything left, or close. This kid has been trying for days.

[skysummit]

I'm definately not giving up on it.

Even though cloud tops have warmed, a few new little bursts of convection are now occuring. Also, looking at visible, it seems like it may be trying to tighten up a bit. The last few frames show the first time today a cyclonic turn.

[mgpetre]

You can't give up when the game is getting better than ever. When has this system been so close to being upgraded?

Its so frustrating!

I have already learned how to cope with it. You can't get frustrating in a waiting game!!!

Convection is just relocating now rather than dying off completely. We're not too far off (a day or two at most) from a sustained convective cycle IMO. It's going to slow some tonight I believe and tomorrow should be a great Friday at work for those of us that check the boards when we get a little bored.

[philnyc]

Clearly this thing seems to be dodging all of the bullets. It looks like it may hang on until things get favorable again. It had a nice upper level anticyclone over it yesterday and from the nice feathering out of cirrus in all directions except west, it's easy to see it has reestablished an upper level high, i.e. it has great outflow/divergence aloft. In addition, as others have mentioned, the trades lighten up considerably after it passes south of Haiti. Here's the GFS forecast for surface winds tomorrow at 12Z:


The other obvious inhibitor is the coming shear increase ahead of it for tonight and tomorrow:


BUT, notice that the shear area it's approaching it is a fairly narrow band of southwesterly shear that's about 20-30 knots. That's not going to be as bad for the system as you might think, because it's moving so fast (25mph). The high forward speed of this also means it will zip through the higher shear area quite quickly, giving it a pretty good shot at getting into really favorable conditions by late tomorrow. I think you would have to give this a better than even shot right now to be a significant tropical cyclone.

[mgpetre]

Good analysis Phil. I posted this earlier, but am putting it out one more time for anyone that hasn't seen NASA's movie of the entire 2005 Hurricane season. If you watch carefully you'll see that there was nothing that persisted like 99L without becoming a storm. This has to be one of the most persistant invests of the satellite age? More a question than a statement.

NASA video of 2005 season (in case you hadn't seen it.) http://learners.gsfc.nasa.gov/mediaviewer/27storms/

[philnyc]

Good analysis Phil. I posted this earlier, but am putting it out one more time for anyone that hasn't seen NASA's movie of the entire 2005 Hurricane season. If you watch carefully you'll see that there was nothing that persisted like 99L without becoming a storm. This has to be one of the most persistant invests of the satellite age? More a question than a statement.

NASA video of 2005 season (in case you hadn't seen it.) http://learners.gsfc.nasa.gov/mediaviewer/27storms/

Thanks, mgpetre, and welcome!
While obviously none of us could ever say that for certain because of the amout of storms there have been, I know personally I've been watching storms since 1975, and I can't remember seeing such a persistent circulation/wave. When it holds onto its MLC so well for so long, and then moves into a more favorable area, watch out! But that's the old Phil, who didn't understand the dynamics. Now that I've graduated from Penn State (this past spring), and understand the dynamics of these systems and how to analyse them, it's much more fun because I base my forecasts on solid science, not on wishes, hopes or hunches. And when you look at this from a more scientific approach, it sure looks like it's got a good shot.
Tonight and tomorrow early are critical for this thing as it moves through that shear. I explained why the forward speed might help it already, but a wave traveling this fast also has the potential to go poof in a hurry if the MLC and/or upper level support breaks apart. So we'll still just have to watch.

[PTrackerLA]

It looks great on visible satellite this afternoon, LLC or not. I wonder what this will look like when it gets near Jamaica.

[skysummit]

It looks great on visible satellite this afternoon, LLC or not. I wonder what this will look like when it gets near Jamaica.

I say it should begin to look much better. Right now is when it should be having its minimal convection....at least now is the time for the past few days, but today it's holding on to it a little better than before. Like another member mentioned, if it can quickly make it through the narrow area of shear, conditions should improve and he should slow down near Jamaica or a little west.

Then we need to begin watching if there is still a weakness in the Gulf.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

nice outflow boundary just came out of the clump of storms... should see them decrease fairly quickly

Yeah, cloud tops warming fast except for one little burst on the backside of the disturbance.

Didn't we see this earlier in the day? -there was a very obvious outflow boundary this morning and it did not signal any rapid deintensification then. Why would it now?

I commented that with that obvious outflow, odds were against any LLC being there at the time. That would again seem to be the case, but apparently the RECON seems to be closing in on identifying a westerly component to the winds. -but maybe they won't find them. -if there is an outflow boundary, I wouldn't think they should.

[philnyc]

It looks great on visible satellite this afternoon, LLC or not. I wonder what this will look like when it gets near Jamaica.

I say it should begin to look much better. Right now is when it should be having its minimal convection....at least now is the time for the past few days, but today it's holding on to it a little better than before. Like another member mentioned, if it can quickly make it through the narrow area of shear, conditions should improve and he should slow down near Jamaica or a little west.

Then we need to begin watching if there is still a weakness in the Gulf.

Yeah. It seems to hold on to each daylight convection pulse a little better than the day before. Right now you can see the cloud tops warming pretty rapidly, allowing the thunderstoms to decrease in height and weaken due to less temperature difference from the surface to the top (the diurnal variation). Let's see what tonight brings. Key things to watch are if it holds on to that robust upper level outflow and holds onto the MLC.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Could the introduction of some southwesterly shear actually aid this system? Couldn't it help to get a westerly wind direction included in its overall rotation?

[Aric Dunn]

sorry

the navy site cant quite keep things straight can they

[vaffie]

For the first time in a couple days, the 12Z WRF doesn't lose it, and has it track towards the northern Yucatan peninsula and then drift westsouthwest into the Bay of Campeche and into Mexico.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[philnyc]

Could the introduction of some southwesterly shear actually aid this system? Couldn't it help to get a westerly wind direction included in its overall rotation?

Not until it's almost past that shear band. At that point it will be OK on the forward semicircle, and the SW winds on its backside will add some convergence there, which will actually be a plus for convection on the trailing semicircle.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm not a meteorologist, nor do I play one on TV




Bluefields, NI, as a Cat 1 or Cat 2 on Sunday. It won't be called a TC today, but if they fly late enough tomorrow, it'll be TS Dean, unless, of course, it is TS Erin.

[philnyc]

I'm not a meteorologist, nor do I play one on TV




Bluefields, NI, as a Cat 1 or Cat 2 on Sunday. It won't be called a TC today, but if they fly late enough tomorrow, it'll be TS Dean, unless, of course, it is TS Erin.

OK, Ed. Nothing like putting your a** on the line.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing blows up every night-morning in dies every afternoon. In that is going to be the life story of this wave.