Invest 99L Thread #6

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KWT
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#81 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:00 pm

Interesting Ed but wouldn't 99L pretty much have to do a westerly track from now on in and maybe even slightly south of west!
If I had to make a guess based on the synoptics, I'd say Belize/Yucatan hit.
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Derek Ortt

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#82 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:01 pm

if it hits that shear ahead of it... it is game over with no chance of an afterlife. That shear will be magnified by the quick motion
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#83 Postby punkyg » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:07 pm

Sooooooooooooooooooooo whats going on any news i should know about?
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#84 Postby mgpetre » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:08 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:if it hits that shear ahead of it... it is game over with no chance of an afterlife. That shear will be magnified by the quick motion


So we have a dialogue about what the shear will do. I personally don't believe that shear will be anywhere close to the strength it is right now by morning. That Cluster ahead of 99L is breaking it down a bit and will do so more during the overnight hours. IMO of course.
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#85 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:11 pm

Can a TD be too far in the future with it now at 30 kts. and 1010 mb (per NRL), plus higher Dvorak intensity now: DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/1745 UTC 13.2N 66.7W T1.0/1.5 99L
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#86 Postby astrosbaseball22 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:12 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:Can a TD be too far in the future with it now at 30 kts. and 1010 mb (per NRL), plus higher Dvorak intensity now: DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/1745 UTC 13.2N 66.7W T1.0/1.5 99L





what do those numbers mean
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#87 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:13 pm

it means its strengthening
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#88 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:14 pm

Dvorak # : first number position and second number is intensity.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/1745 UTC 13.2N 66.7W T1.0/1.5 99L
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#89 Postby astrosbaseball22 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:15 pm

like where it says T1 is the lower the betteR?
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#90 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:16 pm

It's not far from a TD folks and the spin has become even more defined today. The convection willl be back tonight but it has a massive cloud canopy.....

Dean here you come.....

True there is shear ahead of it but I expect it to start fanning off to the WNW and NW soon in response to it...
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#91 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:18 pm

astrosbaseball22 wrote:like where it says T1 is the lower the betteR?


Higher the stronger.

Goes up to 8.0...a 2.5 is a tropical storm.
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#92 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:18 pm

that Dvorak means its weakening. You only get a data T lower than the CI when it is weakening.

I know some really want a storm, but could we tone down some of the postings that this is developing when ALL meteorological data says it is not?
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#93 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:19 pm

Cant wait for the 5PMEDT TWO!
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#94 Postby skysummit » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:19 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Cant wait for the 5PMEDT TWO!


Why? It's likely going to say the same thing again.
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#95 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:20 pm

I suspect the Dvorak # is a little lagging behind the storm. It is rapidly decreasing its high cloud tops and is weakening, just as it has done each day. But each day, it seems to stay stronger longer and start strengthening again sooner. IF this pattern continues for 1 more day, I think we can expect to see a Tropical Storm out of this tomorrow. The key is to get the observers in there when it is at its peak. There could have been a westerly component earlier for a short time, but not when they were sampling. Alas, we will never know... or care... since the next chapter will be written by then.

I suspect we will see a further weakening into the evening followed by another diurnal max strengthening in the early morning hours again. Maybe this time it will close the gap though and maintain through the diurnal minimum so it doesn't have as much to overcome towards getting that TD designation tomorrow.
Last edited by TreasureIslandFLGal on Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#96 Postby fox13weather » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:21 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:that Dvorak means its weakening. You only get a data T lower than the CI when it is weakening.

I know some really want a storm, but could we tone down some of the postings that this is developing when ALL meteorological data says it is not?


AMEN!!

Geeee...by the tone of this board it is obvious that some of you need to sit on Santa's lap and ask for a storm.
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#97 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:22 pm

skysummit wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:Cant wait for the 5PMEDT TWO!


Why? It's likely going to say the same thing again.


mabey so, but it will be nice to read somthing new on the system, even if it is repetitive!
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#98 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:22 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I know some really want a storm, but could we tone down some of the postings that this is developing when ALL meteorological data says it is not?


Agreed! Please take -removed- to chat rooms.
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#99 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:23 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Cant wait for the 5PMEDT TWO!


The 11:30 p.m. TWO may be more enlightening.
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#100 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:24 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:Can a TD be too far in the future with it now at 30 kts. and 1010 mb (per NRL), plus higher Dvorak intensity now: DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/1745 UTC 13.2N 66.7W T1.0/1.5 99L


The problem of course is there is no center. You can have 60 kt winds but if there's no center, it's not anything other than a wave.

I'm quickly running out of patience with this thing.
Last edited by Brent on Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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