Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

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Evil Jeremy
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#401 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Aug 02, 2007 12:42 pm

Vortex Message? i thought the mission was cancelled
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#402 Postby hcane27 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 12:44 pm

It was ..... not sure where the vortex message came from .... :?: :?:
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#403 Postby lrak » Thu Aug 02, 2007 12:44 pm

Isn't the surface High in the Northern GOM moving West and the ULL doing the same bring all this mess back out into the GOM, then into Mexico?

Remember total Newb forecast. 8-)
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#404 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 02, 2007 12:45 pm

777
URNT12 KNHC 021345
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/13:35:30Z
B. 27 deg 18 min N
082 deg 54 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 40 kt
E. 070 deg 10 nm
F. 181 deg 044 kt
G. 071 deg 010 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 21 C/ 480 m
J. 21 C/ 457 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF303 0202A BARRY OB 08 <--------------------------
MAX FL WIND 44 KT E QUAD 13:31:40 Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C, 71 / 10NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

Yes it was Barry in June :D
Last edited by Nimbus on Thu Aug 02, 2007 12:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#405 Postby lrak » Thu Aug 02, 2007 12:46 pm

The ob says Barry in it?
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#406 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 02, 2007 12:48 pm

Nimbus wrote:777
URNT12 KNHC 021345
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/13:35:30Z
B. 27 deg 18 min N
082 deg 54 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 40 kt
E. 070 deg 10 nm
F. 181 deg 044 kt
G. 071 deg 010 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 21 C/ 480 m
J. 21 C/ 457 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF303 0202A BARRY OB 08
MAX FL WIND 44 KT E QUAD 13:31:40 Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C, 71 / 10NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.


Barry?

That says the 2nd(which is today's date), but it's also the date in June when Barry came ashore in FL(and 13:35z is 9:35am ET, 4+ hours ago). Plane wasn't even going to be out there that early(and has now been cancelled). Since there's been no vortex for 99L, that must be the most recent one.
Last edited by Brent on Thu Aug 02, 2007 12:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#407 Postby skysummit » Thu Aug 02, 2007 12:48 pm

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MESSY WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD ELONGATED LOW PRES TROUGH. AS OF 15 UTC...THE BOUNDARY WAS
ANALYZED FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TOWARD THE SE TEXAS
COAST ALONG 29N83W 27N89W 29N96W. VISIBLE IMAGES AND SFC OBS
SHOW BROAD ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS
WITH SOME CONCENTRATION AND LOWER PRESSURES NEAR 28N86W...WHERE
A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED. IR IMAGES...LIGHTNING DATA AND
AVAILABLE RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COVER THE REGION FROM 26N-30N...MOST ORGANIZED IN THE E GULF AND
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. WHILE THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM IS POORLY
ORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT...IT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR QUITE WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN TSTMS...AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL SHIPS
REPORTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEING
ENHANCED BY A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SE STATES AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW U.S. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. DEBRIS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
COVERS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME SE PORTION AND S FLA...WHERE DRY AIR FROM THE BAHAMAS IS
BEING ADVECTED IN.
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#408 Postby NONAME » Thu Aug 02, 2007 12:48 pm

Yes that is from Barry.
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#409 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Aug 02, 2007 12:57 pm

FAIR WARNING FOR ALL MEMBERS!!

I do not know if the vortex message(from Barry) was posted as a mistake or a joke. However, Storm2k considers it an major offense for FALSE or intentionally MISLEADING INFORMATION to be posted on these forums. We have taken action recently and will continue to take the action of the minimum of a 3 day suspension when we are aware that this type of activity is being done. We have far too many people who come to this site to obtain good information to allow that type of posting to occur. I hope everyone understands our stance. We will be aggressive in monitoring and acting upon any offense such as I have described.
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#410 Postby Bluefrog » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:03 pm

:blowup:
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#411 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:02 pm

I think you all will like this run of the model
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#412 Postby HeeBGBz » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:10 pm

I might if I knew how to run it or what I was looking for... :P
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#413 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:12 pm

HeeBGBz wrote:I might if I knew how to run it or what I was looking for... :P



try this http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... te_1h.html
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#414 Postby bayoubebe » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:14 pm

So, what does that mean exactly?
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Re:

#415 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:18 pm

bayoubebe wrote:So, what does that mean exactly?


you dont see the NE gulf system closing off a low and becoming what appears to be a TS
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#416 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:21 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
HeeBGBz wrote:I might if I knew how to run it or what I was looking for... :P



try this http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... te_1h.html



Gee, I was hoping that if it formed and went east of here, that we could get some dry air, but it's not showing that here. I'm getting tired of thunderstorms.
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#417 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:24 pm

This model run looks interesting too.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#418 Postby skysummit » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:24 pm

Annular....it shows it going inland near Panama City, FL.
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#419 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:26 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
HeeBGBz wrote:I might if I knew how to run it or what I was looking for... :P



try this http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... te_1h.html



Gee, I was hoping that if it formed and went east of here, that we could get some dry air, but it's not showing that here. I'm getting tired of thunderstorms.


You can have my 95 degree heat ridge and extreme drought. Please take it. Nothing but 20-30% chances of rain or less for the next week. Hottest weather of the summer.
Last edited by Brent on Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#420 Postby destruction92 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:27 pm

vbhoutex wrote:FAIR WARNING FOR ALL MEMBERS!!

I do not know if the vortex message(from Barry) was posted as a mistake or a joke. However, Storm2k considers it an major offense for FALSE or intentionally MISLEADING INFORMATION to be posted on these forums. We have taken action recently and will continue to take the action of the minimum of a 3 day suspension when we are aware that this type of activity is being done. We have far too many people who come to this site to obtain good information to allow that type of posting to occur. I hope everyone understands our stance. We will be aggressive in monitoring and acting upon any offense such as I have described.



I am assuming you suspended Nimbus, right? Knowing that we have a storm2k "member of the month" competition, we should start a "storm2k villain of the month" competition.
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