Invest 99L Thread #6

[gatorcane]

Exactly. Lets look at the big picture for those that think this won't develop. Think 3 days ago of how awful it looked. Now at the diurnal minimum it looks pretty darn good. The only reason we are calling this a tropical wave is because no west winds were found. Science unfortunately is fallible and I don't necessarily trust that we haven't missed something out there by the looks of this thing. But just look at it. It has good spin it, it has nice outflow, the convection should be back tonight again.

I still say Dean here you come.....

[mgpetre]

I have a question about the trade winds acting on this thing right now, looks like some of the new convection is being blown west as it pops. Are the easterlies at a higher altitude in this area than they normally would be or is this just typical collapse / outflow I'm seeing?

Anyone have any thoughts on this? It just looks like some of the popcorn convection is being sheared westward, am I seeing this correctly?

[Derek Ortt]

the convection has been firing mainly on outflow boundaries today. These boundaries basically act as mini cold fronts as they consist of cold air from aloft race out, causing the warm low level air to be lifted

[jrod]

99L is about to meet some strong shear to the south of it. I am thinking that will disrupt the organization it went through today. Overnight will tell the tale of how this wave is going to handle the shear.

[mgpetre]

the convection has been firing mainly on outflow boundaries today. These boundaries basically act as mini cold fronts as they consist of cold air from aloft race out, causing the warm low level air to be lifted

That definately explains the behavior observed, thank you very much. I'm still learning a lot.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 022119
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WAS NOT ABLE TO FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY AND THAT THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
ALSO INCREASED. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHEN THE SYSTEM
REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A DAY OT TWO. IF NECESSARY...
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. EVEN
IF DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR...THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BRING SQUALLY
WEATHER TO JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AMERICA IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[southerngale]

Exactly. Lets look at the big picture for those that think this won't develop. Think 3 days ago of how awful it looked. Now at the diurnal minimum it looks pretty darn good. The only reason we are calling this a tropical wave is because no west winds were found. Science unfortunately is fallible and I don't necessarily trust that we haven't missed something out there by the looks of this thing. But just look at it. It has good spin it, it has nice outflow, the convection should be back tonight again.

I still say Dean here you come.....

Yeah, it looks pretty good, but if no west winds were found by recon, then it's still just a wave. I seriously doubt it's because science is fallible. I've seen systems look better than 99L and not be classified.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WAS NOT ABLE TO FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY AND THAT THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
ALSO INCREASED. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHEN THE SYSTEM
REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A DAY OT TWO. IF NECESSARY...
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. EVEN
IF DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR...THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BRING SQUALLY
WEATHER TO JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AMERICA IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[gatorcane]

99L is about to meet some strong shear to the south of it. I am thinking that will disrupt the organization it went through today. Overnight will tell the tale of how this wave is going to handle the shear.

There is definitely shear ahead that is for sure:

[gatorcane]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WAS NOT ABLE TO FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY AND THAT THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
ALSO INCREASED. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHEN THE SYSTEM
REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A DAY OT TWO. IF NECESSARY...
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. EVEN
IF DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR...THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BRING SQUALLY
WEATHER TO JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AMERICA IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Nice that is about what I would have said too....its better organized and we are just awaiting the center to take shape and then it will be upgraded...

as I still say Dean.....here you come...

interestingly enough they don't mention the shear ahead...

[PTrackerLA]

Well it looks like this one will stay out of the gulf, which is definately some good news.

[Brent]

A little stronger wording, and they do admit it's better organized than yesterday.

I still think this system has a chance(if it gets a center it'll probably go straight to Dean) but it really needs to slow down!

[HURAKAN]

A few more threads before anything develops or everything dissipates.

The system looks better today, and like the NHC says, when it slows down it will have a shot at becoming a TD or TS.

By the way, didn't the RECON find winds at TS intensity?

[jasons2k]

I welcome the pro-mets discussions but as if others haved noted, they have their own board if we want a more informed opinion... No offense pro-mets

This is true. We can go to the other board and read the pro mets opinion. Personally, the only professionals I will ever listen to are the NHC experts because I know their credentials and expertise. They have many years of experience and are in fact the very best in the country, and some believe in the world.

Usually the pro mets don't chime-in on the analysis forum until a system is designated....

[astrosbaseball22]

hmm......i thought it would be a td.

[HURAKAN]

Everyone please, now we can relax and wait probably until tomorrow to see the system slow down and maybe develop a LLC.

The system has been able to hold today very well and the diurnal maximum combined with a slower pace should provide the breeding ground for a LLC. So for tonight, lets relax and let me play my favorite song.

"Lets see how the system responds to the diurnal maximum."

[lrak]

Everyone please, now we can relax and wait probably until tomorrow to see the system slow down and maybe develop a LLC.

The system has been able to hold today very well and the diurnal maximum combined with a slower pace should provide the breeding ground for a LLC. So for tonight, lets relax and let me play my favorite song.

"Lets see how the system responds to the diurnal maximum."

What time is the maximum, late PM or late AM?

[RL3AO]

What time is the maximum, late PM or late AM?

AM

[HURAKAN]

Everyone please, now we can relax and wait probably until tomorrow to see the system slow down and maybe develop a LLC.

The system has been able to hold today very well and the diurnal maximum combined with a slower pace should provide the breeding ground for a LLC. So for tonight, lets relax and let me play my favorite song.

"Lets see how the system responds to the diurnal maximum."

What time is the maximum, late PM or late AM?

Late overnight hours and early morning hours.

[astrosbaseball22]

i say

5pm tomrrow we have TD 4