Is it possible that 2005 was the end of the active cycle?

[JTD]

It is very interesting that 1995 had an insane number of storms and 10 years later, we had 2005, which was the most active hurricane season of all time, immediately followed by 2 years of relative quiet and certainly nothing in 2006 and 2007 has even approached the level of activity in 2005. I know that many on here would say that it's not prime-time yet and that's true but we are getting there and what do we have at this moment: 1) Atlantic with lots of shear 2) Atlantic with lots of dry air 3) an E.C. trough that if it keeps re-appearing will curve these storms out to sea 4) Systems that would have formed in 2005 like 99L and perhaps the GOM disturbance are not)

The ingredients just don't seem there the way they were in years' past. Yes, we are ahead of 2004 in number of storms but all 3 systems so far have been very close to being extratropical.

1995-2005 is a nice round 10 year cycle and it'd kind of make sense if 2005 closed the book on the hyperactivity.

And, so far to me, 2007 is looking remarkably like 2006.

[RL3AO]

Bookmark this and bump it in November 2010.

[Extremeweatherguy]

These cycles can last as long as 25-50 years. I doubt the current cycle will have ended after just 10.

Plus, you cannot really call 2007 "quiet". We have yet to see what happens the rest of August, September, October and November...and already we have had 3 named storms. Also, the shear, etc. is not really all that abonormal for this time of the year, and SSTs are at or above normal in many areas. We really shouldn't judge this season until it is over.

[x-y-no]

Bookmark this and bump it in November 2010.

Yep.

[Eyewall]

It is very interesting that 1995 had an insane number of storms and 10 years later, we had 2005, which was the most active hurricane season of all time, immediately followed by 2 years of relative quiet and certainly nothing in 2006 and 2007 has even approached the level of activity in 2005. I know that many on here would say that it's not prime-time yet and that's true but we are getting there and what do we have at this moment: 1) Atlantic with lots of shear 2) Atlantic with lots of dry air 3) an E.C. trough that if it keeps re-appearing will curve these storms out to sea 4) Systems that would have formed in 2005 like 99L and perhaps the GOM disturbance are not)

The ingredients just don't seem there the way they were in years' past. Yes, we are ahead of 2004 in number of storms but all 3 systems so far have been very close to being extratropical.

1995-2005 is a nice round 10 year cycle and it'd kind of make sense if 2005 closed the book on the hyperactivity.

And, so far to me, 2007 is looking remarkably like 2006.

dude its august 2nd and the D storm is about to form.. we are doing fine.. ahead of schedule

[HURAKAN]

Just one thing to comment,

2005 made everyone insane!

[Eyewall]

Just one thing to comment,

2005 made everyone insane!

amen

[brunota2003]

Just one thing to comment,

2005 made everyone insane!

amen

Haha, it did indeed. It doesnt matter how many you have in one season, its where they go and what they hit that truely matters.
On a side note, looking at your avatar, Eyewall, I just wanted to say Semper Fidelis!

[Brent]

Just one thing to comment,

2005 made everyone insane!

It is still very early, the heart of the season is August 15th-October 15th. It is not unusual at all to have had no hurricanes at this point, and every year has invests that struggle or don't even develop at all.

[canegrl04]

I don't know if there is a corralation,but North Texas interestingly is on the verge of tying the all time wettest summer record.It was set in 2004,the year of all of those hurricanes hitting Florida

[Derek Ortt]

It's August 2nd and we are above average in terms of activity.

Not every year is 1996 or 2005 where we have long tracking major hurricanes in July.

[gatorcane]

the storms that have formed have been in one word: pathetic

up to this point. In my terms they don't even count as being tropical.

When was the last time we had a real storm (i.e. hurricane) west of 60W in the Herbert box?

It's been a long time....and looks like nothing will be forming anytime soon.

[jaxfladude]

I miss 2004(1 TS and 4 'Canes to impact FLA) and 2005(From start to finish) so very much..... NOT!!!!

[Dionne]

It could all change in 72 hours.

Strictly a novice here......but I keep wondering about SAL?

Didn't the "potential Dean" slip in to the south of SAL? The last buoy report I read wasn't weather I would want to be sailing into.....and is still only being called a "wave".

If the GOM misses a slam this year I might consider it the change in a cycle.

[stormy70]

It's only August folks. We are just beginning!

[Patrick99]

I doubt it...was 2006 all that quiet? No real landfalls to speak of, sure, but it had plenty of storms. Ernesto *could* have been a big factor, given a little better positioning. Plenty of storms developed, they just weren't very worthy.

This season ain't over.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Don't look now but Dr. Gray forcast 13 more storms with 8 canes and 4 major!

[Jim Hughes]

It is very interesting that 1995 had an insane number of storms and 10 years later, we had 2005, which was the most active hurricane season of all time, immediately followed by 2 years of relative quiet and certainly nothing in 2006 and 2007 has even approached the level of activity in 2005. I know that many on here would say that it's not prime-time yet and that's true but we are getting there and what do we have at this moment: 1) Atlantic with lots of shear 2) Atlantic with lots of dry air 3) an E.C. trough that if it keeps re-appearing will curve these storms out to sea 4) Systems that would have formed in 2005 like 99L and perhaps the GOM disturbance are not)

The ingredients just don't seem there the way they were in years' past. Yes, we are ahead of 2004 in number of storms but all 3 systems so far have been very close to being extratropical.

1995-2005 is a nice round 10 year cycle and it'd kind of make sense if 2005 closed the book on the hyperactivity.

And, so far to me, 2007 is looking remarkably like 2006.

You need to follow the behavior of the stratosphere more closely to see what it is telling you in regards to the long term AMO/ATL activity. It can also help you with forecasting long term regime changes in the PDO.

Take a look at this thread, that is currently on the second page. It's about GW and hurricanes. I entered it two days ago with some plausible relationships and I can even delve further into this subject matter if some people were willing to discuss this stuff. But the thread went dead. So I want you to think about why nobody challenged this stuff. Or asked about it further?

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96502

[Bane]

these threads just make me laugh. it's august 2nd. the tropics don't really get going until the middle of the month.

[Ptarmigan]

2004 only had one storm in July. It ended up being one of the most active on record.