I like the area behind 99L at 40w

[boca]

I think this area around 40w is interesting too. It has a moist environment and heading westbound right behind 99L. I think well have 90L soon from this area.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

[skysummit]

I agree boca.....better environment than 99L has, that's for sure.

[Steve]

>>I like the area behind 99L at 40w

I'm kind of partial to the area around 89.9/30, but that's just me.

Steve

[SouthFloridawx]

I like this one too, even UKMET shows some vorticity to the north of the islands through the next few days. It doesn't have any convection now, but it's got a nice large low attached to it.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2007080212&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

[Derek Ortt]

that area is almost embedded within the SAL... dont think anything will come from it for a while

[gatorcane]

besides 99L, the Atlantic is quite boring. Nothing really going on.

I guess I'll have to go back to the EPAC where the real action always seems to be

[HURAKAN]

besides 99L, the Atlantic is quite boring. Nothing really going on.

I guess I'll have to go back to the EPAC where the real action always seems to be

Well Erick is now a depression fighting shear in the middle of nowhere and there is 90E with some potential. I'll take my chances with 99L.

[SouthFloridawx]

that area is almost embedded within the SAL... dont think anything will come from it for a while

I kind of figured by the lack of convection and the oranges on WV, from Ramsdis that it was embedded, but either way... it has an low attached to it and UKMET, shows vorticity through 144 hours from this wave.

Just something to keep an eye on.



http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float2_0.html

[Anthonyl]

Looking at the area a little closely now, seems to be some convective activity along the ITCZ. Earlier there was an area of low pressure along the wave axis around 11N 45W. The NHC surface analysis map has since dropped off the low, despite this, I beleive this wave will need to closely monitored.Models (GFS) try to form a cyclone around the vicinity of the Leewards towards the beggining of next week from this probable area.

[SouthFloridawx]

I would seriously watch this area as it moves westward. It may be void of convection right now, but it will loose the SAL and a couple of the models are indicating some vorticity to the north of the islands moving into the Bahamas in 4-6 days. These waves have a way of sneaking in when you least expect it. With an upper level disturbance expected to be the area in a few days, this may cause convergence East and into the Bahamas or to the North of the Islands.

With a 500mb ridge building in the Southeast and extending off the East Coast to the north of the Bahamas, this could spell development in a few days of this wave.

This may not be the most in depth research, but its what I had time to do. What do you guys think?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_120l.gif

[DESTRUCTION5]

I agree they can fire convection in a matter of Hrs..The the snowball can really start rolling if conditions are right..

[Sanibel]

Another completely dry circulation just east of the windwards. - 2006.

[SouthFloridawx]

UKMET Still Showing a bit of vorticity north of the Islands and into the Bahamas.

It's not showing anything close off, but should be monitored anyway.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2007080312&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation



NOGAPS showing a little bump in the same area also..



Finally Even the Euro is showing a bump in the Same area..

[SouthFloridawx]

Another thing to note is the fact that the Euro is also showing an 500mb ridge in the SE and would make a perfect opportunity for something to develop in the Bahamas.

[Meso]

I think this is the wave that the CMC is moving into the gulf in it's 12z run

[SouthFloridawx]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
NOW APPEARS TO BE W OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXACT WAVE POSN REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DUE TO THE MOISTURE THAT HAS PERSISTED
FURTHER E NEAR THE UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE AHEAD OF THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW. NONETHELESS...A WWD SURGE OF MOISTURE IS STILL
EVIDENT IN THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT WHERE THE CURRENT AXIS IS
PLACED. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS MAINLY N OF 15N.

Lets see if it can maintain some convection tonight.