Invest 99L Thread #6

[brunota2003]

I am Invest 99L...and I refuse to develop because the time is just not yet right.

Well when is the time right? Anytime before Christmas?

Dont know, my boss hasnt called me to come into work yet But I heard rumors of overtime...

[philnyc]

NDBC 42059 is now showing pressure drop and 33kt wind gusts.

whats the pressure

1011mb. Winds EAST at 27 gusts 34 mph

LOCATION about 14.5N and -67.0W

[Dionne]

It just changed again.....was 29.84 and dropping.....now it's 29.85 and steady.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Shear to the west of this system has lightened some over the last 3 hours...

3 hours ago = http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... shr-1.html

Now = http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

It is still high, but we will need to watch and see if this becomes a trend.

[Dionne]

Buoys 42058 and 42057 have failed. We won't be getting any data there. 42056......still a ways off..... is showing a slight drop in pressure.

[Ivanhater]

Right now..the system is unable to maintain convection on the south side...where the lowest pressure is...South America is cutting off any inflow coming from the south...I think once this clears South America tomorrow it will start to get inflow coming from the south and be able to maintain convection....forming convection has not been the problem...getting inflow from the south has been..but tomorrow should help...look how it looks cut in half from the bottom...

[astrosbaseball22]

yeah it should look alot better after it passes

[gatorcane]

This has been the most studied and commented system in the forum probably since Helene last year.

Agreed.

and it's just a wave.

when we have a tropical wave that is a week away from the U.S., the board goes down because of too much activity.

Ironically if we did have a major hurricane approaching the U.S (or Caribbean islands) this board would go down -- yet that is when we would need it the most.

[gatorcane]

another thought also...

How many Upper Level lows have stopped development since 2005....I can't believe how many have ripped apart anything that has gotten going...

and guess what may cause 99L to fizzle.....

another one of those upper level lows ......

[astrosbaseball22]

does anyone think we will have a TD tomorrow

[Normandy]

Man this picture looks familiar...

So disorganized.

[StormTracker]

I want to say yes, but my gut is telling me to say no!!! I hate that!!!

[philnyc]

Right now..the system is unable to maintain convection on the south side...where the lowest pressure is...South America is cutting off any inflow coming from the south...I think once this clears South America tomorrow it will start to get inflow coming from the south and be able to maintain convection....forming convection has not been the problem...getting inflow from the south has been..but tomorrow should help...look how it looks cut in half from the bottom...

Nice observation.

[Scorpion]

It looks like it has an eye

[astrosbaseball22]

It looks like it has an eye

for real?

[AnnularCane]

I want to say yes, but my gut is telling me to say no!!! I hate that!!!

It's probably just gas.

[Recurve]

Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here is an amateur early take for those interested in possible scenarios. This is just things to be aware of for non-pros.

If 99L develops more tropical characteristics, it threatens the western Caribbean, the Yucatan, and eventually Mexico or the US mainland. Still only a disorganized, disturbed weather area, now centered west of the Windward Islands between Puerto Rico and the South American mainland, with storminess reaching far eastern Hispanola and also Aruba, Bonaire and coastal Venezuela and Colombia, the system is moving rapidly westward on strong easterly (west-moving) trade winds. The weather is likely to track toward the Yucatan and could spread showers and thunderstorms over Cuba and Jamaica, if it continues due west it threatens Central America.
If a depression or tropical storm develops in the next day, its track and how far north it might get into the Gulf depends on whether high pressure establishes over the entire Gulf; weakness in the high would allow it to curve northwesterly. A trough in the Gulf, a front approaching or a low would cause it to turn more strongly into the northern Gulf even. A hard turn toward Florida seems less likely because no strong fronts are forecast and a high is likely to be established at least over Florida and the eastern Gulf, and as the system continues moving rapidly westward it will take a stronger influence for it to recurve toward the Keys or South Florida, and later to reach the west coast or Big Bend of Florida. There is mention of a low developing in the northern Gulf and this is a possible influence on a more northern track to watch for. Chance of development into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours: 20 percent. Chance of eventual development into a tropical cyclone: 30 percent. Threat to US coast if it becomes a hurricane: 50 percent; higher the sooner it develops.




Again, my amateur take only, everyone's opinions appreciated.

[philnyc]

It looks like it has an eye

LOL

[DESTRUCTION5]

Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here is an amateur early take for those interested in possible scenarios. This is just things to be aware of for non-pros.

If 99L develops more tropical characteristics, it threatens the western Caribbean, the Yucatan, and eventually Mexico or the US mainland. Still only a disorganized, disturbed weather area, now centered west of the Windward Islands between Puerto Rico and the South American mainland, with storminess reaching far eastern Hispanola and also Aruba, Bonaire and coastal Venezuela and Colombia, the system is moving rapidly westward on strong easterly (west-moving) trade winds. The weather is likely to track toward the Yucatan and could spread showers and thunderstorms over Cuba and Jamaica, if it continues due west it threatens Central America.
If a depression or tropical storm develops in the next day, its track and how far north it might get into the Gulf depends on whether high pressure establishes over the entire Gulf; weakness in the high would allow it to curve northwesterly. A trough in the Gulf, a front approaching or a low would cause it to turn more strongly into the northern Gulf even. A hard turn toward Florida seems less likely because no strong fronts are forecast and a high is likely to be established at least over Florida and the eastern Gulf, and as the system continues moving rapidly westward it will take a stronger influence for it to recurve toward the Keys or South Florida, and later to reach the west coast or Big Bend of Florida. There is mention of a low developing in the northern Gulf and this is a possible influence on a more northern track to watch for. Chance of development into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours: 20 percent. Chance of eventual development into a tropical cyclone: 30 percent. Threat to US coast if it becomes a hurricane: 50 percent; higher the sooner it develops.




Again, my amateur take only, everyone's opinions appreciated.

As good as any..I say this will never touch the US mainland though...even if it does make the BOC

[StormTracker]

I want to say yes, but my gut is telling me to say no!!! I hate that!!!

It's probably just gas.

LOL!!! Good one!